Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[maoing]

Mods: can you help move this post into "short term thread"? I put it in wrong place.

Tesla Motors Inc Plans To Revive Growth In China Through New Models

Mr. Musk added that the EV manufacturer will be introducing the new faster, dual-model version of the Model S in China in the coming months. The Model X crossover will also be rolled out in the region by early next year. The plugged-in electric crossover should be launched in the US during the fourth quarter of the current year, priced around the same as, or greater than, the Model S

How credible is this report? It's the first time I see the model X will be launched in US in Q4. For P85D release, US has about 3 months lead time to China. In this report, it said Model X rolled out by early next year presumably Jan. 2016 in China, then it's coincident with US rolled out Oct. 2015 which is Q4.

A large proportion of analysts believe that the current shortfall is temporary and future prospects remain strong for the company. Along with it, the shortfall will not have any significant impact on the company’s sales target of 33,000 units for 2014, as the decline would be offset by the strong growth observed in other regions.

How do your guys think about the analysts concensus about 2014 delivery number? In AJ's report, it's barely under 31000. I would really hope the market sets the expectation low entering ER.

 

[mibaro2]

Looks like WSJ is up to its same fud in this article saying Tesla shipped only 444 cars to China in December. And 4's are bad numbers in China, so Tesla is in triple trouble (their words, not mine).
Not much else on the news feed this morning.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Credit Suisse analyst D Galves reiterated an Outperform rating and $325 PT. As if he is reading TMC, notes that increasing Model S wait time for NA is a positive

Credit Suisse analyst D. Galves reiterated an Outperform rating and $325 price target on Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA), saying extended wait time for Model S is a positive sign for demand.The analyst notes Order-to-Delivery time for sales in the US has expanded to the 2.5-3 month range.
"It's difficult to form a recent comparison due to 2H14 production noise, but this metric had contracted to 4-6 weeks during certain periods of '14.," Galves said. "Combined with recent production increases and weakening of China orders, we believe this is evidence of a substantial uptick in order flow for NA and Europe."
For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Tesla Motors click here. For more ratings news on Tesla Motors click here.
Shares of Tesla Motors closed at $206.55 yesterday.

 

[JRP3]

Looks like WSJ is up to its same fud in this article saying Tesla shipped only 444 cars to China in December. And 4's are bad numbers in China, so Tesla is in triple trouble (their words, not mine).
Not much else on the news feed this morning.

Yes that may have been one of the more ridiculous FUD attempts to date:

Let’s hope Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk isn’t superstitious.

Pretty sure he's not.

 

[chickensevil]

Credit Suisse analyst D Galves reiterated an Outperform rating and $325 PT. As if he is reading TMC, notes that increasing Model S wait time for NA is a positive

They probably are reading TMC... I would if I were an analyst for a firm. I mean, verify the information yourself through your other contacts, but put the power of crowdsourcing to your benefit!

 

[Twiddler]

Still, not bad premarket action in TSLA despite overall pre-market indices being sharply lower this morning. If the street can eek out a green day somehow, may be a good day for longs

 

[CHGolferJim]

Just checked and the market is open today after most of the storm restrictions on travel were lifted.

 

[vgrinshpun]

They probably are reading TMC... I would if I were an analyst for a firm. I mean, verify the information yourself through your other contacts, but put the power of crowdsourcing to your benefit!

Another interesting thing is that D. Galves notes "recent production increase". I would be curious to hear other opinions, but production increase to 1000 cars per week, as indicated in TM blog post on the upgrade of the factory published on Novemebr 17 does not qualify as recent to me, as it happend at least more than two months back.

It might be that he is referring to the increase that Elon alluded to in his recent interview at the Detroit Auto Show. If true, this would be another confirmation that production rate is currently at least 1100 cars/week, possibly even 1200 cars/week.

 

[chickensevil]

Nissan Motor Rises Up To Challenge Tesla Motors Inc; Promises 1,000 New EV Charging Stations

This article is a little slanted to be clearly a negative piece toward Tesla with with conflict between "1000 chargers" vs "155 supercharging sites"... that is not apples to apples... Tesla has over 1,000 chargers in the US currently, spread over 150+ different sites.

The other slanted bit is the statement: "[Nissan Director Brendan] Jones further elaborated that the new charger will be compatible with all electric vehicles (EV), unlike Tesla’s super chargers that are limited to the company’s own vehicles." Which is clearly not true either, since the Chademo chargers (assuming that is what they would be rolling out, the article doesn't specify...) don't actually work "with all electric vehicles".

But I digress. I think the important bit here, which is the reason I post this at all, is that Nissan is also responding in a similar fashion to what BMW and VW did by committing to more charging infrastructure in the US.

 

[Gerardf]

After the BMW and VW, now Nissan. This way the traditional car manufacturers indirectly publicly acknowledge Tesla as being the reference and innovation leader that they have to catch up with.

The article, like several others, refers to Fast DC chargers as Super Charger. ( “BMW and Volkswagen’s super charging stations “)

As a shareholder I like this trend :smile:.

 

[uselesslogin]

I always like green in a sea of red.

 

[Krugerrand]

After the BMW and VW, now Nissan. This way the traditional car manufacturers indirectly publicly acknowledge Tesla as being the reference and innovation leader that they have to catch up with.

The article, like several others, refers to Fast DC chargers as Super Charger. ( “BMW and Volkswagen’s super charging stations “)

As a shareholder I like this trend :smile:.

I'd like it more if a) they got it right about what the charging is really all about, and b) they stopped trying to make it them vs Tesla.

 

[MartinAustin]

I always like green in a sea of red.

Do not look at the chart right now...

 

[uselesslogin]

Do not look at the chart right now...

Yeah but still beating the market by a good margin.

 

[MartinAustin]

Yeah but still beating the market by a good margin.

Totally. CNBC reporting it's the worst single-day drop on the Dow since 2011 so TSLA is looking pretty resilient. (volume is average, too)

 

[CHGolferJim]

Profit-taking delayed until 2015 tax year
+ nagging concerns about 4Q and near-term sales/profits vs. guidance and analyst models
+ whatever the net effect is of shorts and option expirations
+ new buyers in at possible 2015-future low
= gradual recovery until tangible news appears?

 

[Papafox]

TSLA closed up nearly a point in after hours trading this afternoon/evening. Could you imagine the effect on TSLA of the Dow drop if TSLA was still in descent mode? We are lucky with the timing.

Edit: Looks like stock closed up about a third a point total for the day by end of after-hours, but after-hours action was about 9/10 of a point increase. Still, no complaints

 

[MikeC]

TSLA closed up nearly a point in after hours trading this afternoon/evening. Could you imagine the effect on TSLA of the Dow drop if TSLA was still in descent mode? We are lucky with the timing.

Looks like a lot of tech stocks are up AH, maybe because of the positive AAPL ER. Hoping for a good day tomorrow.

 

[chickensevil]

TSLA closed up nearly a point in after hours trading this afternoon/evening. Could you imagine the effect on TSLA of the Dow drop if TSLA was still in descent mode? We are lucky with the timing.

Yeah, I was quite happy that we were fighting decently against the main market trend today. I will settle for closing down half a point. That is a win to me.

 

[jhm]

Ok, time to put this stock into "insane mode"!

This Dude Scares The Crap Out Of Everyone In His Tesla P85D