Thanks for getting back to me Vlad!:smile: We have to have some data points to trust or think are trustworthy. If she is not being lied to by the CEO of TSLA (or any company) she appears to make the right Call. IMO
AdrienT
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Thanks for getting back to me Vlad!:smile: We have to have some data points to trust or think are trustworthy. If she is not being lied to by the CEO of TSLA (or any company) she appears to make the right Call. IMO
AdrienT
I think it might have been a misquote that was edited, because I don't see that quote, I see:
EDIT: sorry, I saw your post and replied right away before seeing the correction.
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I have a feeling at this point we won't see the X design studio until the first few X deliveries about a month from now.
as for the stock, short interest came out yesterday and it is almost 1mm shares higher as of two weeks ago than it was about a month ago...I will be very curious to see what the net short interest is in TSLA at the end of today's trading which will be released on Sept 10th after the close
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Of course anything is possible but I would hope at this point Elon isn't that far off on a time table so short as 2-3 weeks. The stock could sure use it, I don't think we will get a massive move but I'll take $10 and some increased confidence to get us headed back in the right direction. I've been following the model X section more this last couple of weeks, latest photo's of X look good, I'm confident it's going to be a massive seller.
Agreed. On the way down we were 2 X's the percentage of NDX, and now that things have stabilized we are only recovering 1/2 X's the percentage of NDX. Looks like a lot of traders are disappointed the official X revel hasn't happened yet.
I am confident about X being a good car too. However, I see a few drawbacks based on available information. If X shares only 30% of parts with S (most likely that being battery and some drivetrain components - mostly built in-house), there is a huge dependency on all suppliers to be ready as per demand. This has been a huge ask traditionally. Recent comments about Tesla being vertically integrated not by choice also suggests its not a win(Diarmuid's comments). Hard work is required. Uncommon parts also mean, Tesla pays a lot higher than normal which may impact margins.
A thesis of mine: The "X reveal" will not be the stock boost people think it will be. I could be *very* wrong, but recall this is a development that is highly expected. The only reason for a short term boost would be a risk-off relief rally, but that might be a modest affect. I think Model X will be cumulatively a big victory for TSLA, but it will come in stages like this:
1) first deliveries of some founders cars, like 50.
2) Opening of design web page (I think founders will choose options in conversations, not the website)
3) Good reviews of the car from consumer reports, car and driver etc.
4) appreciable volumes of X shipping
5) Appreciable cash flow from X sales
6) weekly run rates higher than ever, S+X
MOST of those things won't happen until like Jan/Feb. The finanicial goodies are worse, maybe as late as May 2016 when Q1 results are announced.
Someone explain why the X reveal will be a big deal? Is the idea that the new secret features (big windshield, special middle row seats, ?) are just going to be gangbusters? Or will there be so much relief that the product is real that causes a surge? I just don't have it in my gut. As a stockholder I will think "good, they did a thing they needed to do". To use the overused phrase, isn't this priced in?
Moderator's Note
Some posts were moved off to Snippiness. It's not helpful to talk about other poster or your beliefs about their thinking or motives.
Some posts were moved off to Snippiness. It's not helpful to talk about other poster or your beliefs about their thinking or motives.
It's not so much the car itself. It's about allaying doubts and fears of execution. It's the fact that the car is two years late and it's spreading doubt on investors' minds. Not specifically us, because we live on this forum, but others. It's also the first real big step at Tesla being a "real" car company.
That and if they nail the Model X, which is the "most difficult car in the world to mass build," then Model 3 should be a breeze. In addition, it allows Tesla to slow down the cash burn and recoup internally generated cash for Model 3. I think it's a big deal because it's a sentiment mover. A lot of people got burned in the past few months and so has their sentiment/confidence in Tesla. Model X will change that.
The delay is Tesla obsessing over getting it right to avoid a D gate/Seatgate situation again. Focus on the quality, focus on the ramp, and get the right product into the customer's hands.
I like your layout of events. I do think there will be a relief rally upon opening of design web page. This will show that Tesla is ready to make cars -- will reduce risk of missing 2015 guidance.
As things progress off your list, we will approach, and then exceed the previous ATH.
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Agreed, and also agree with austinEV's milestones. What does everyone think of free cash flow positive in Q1 and stock reaction?
I feel the same way you do and I think that the share price will take off later this year / beginning of 2016. I think the important catalyst is when Tesla announces that they are ramping up to volume production rather than just showing the vehicle in a month. Sure, showing the vehicle will probably give a nice little bump in share price, but the market and investors are waiting for numbers regarding full year deliveries and X volume production. My 2 insignificant cents :smile:.
Krugerrand
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Yeah kaboom. I cannot see a situation where we are not at new ATH by the time Q1 results are announced, provided they are making X+S in volume in Q1 and they do in fact tailor the financials to remind the markets that they do in fact make money on cars. Even a modest global crisis should have either played out or be irrelevant for this specific company. The question is what PATH do we take to get there.
Mostly for investor fear. We're sliding much faster relative to the Nasdaq and that's a really bad sign, and that slide is most likely a belief that the Model X is running into another delay for volume deliveries.
There's been many signs of a big delay in mass volume production, and I think the online configurator delay is a big bellweather of this as well. Assuming you need about a month from configuration to customer delivery, no online configurator now means we're still at least one full month (but probably 45+ days) of any sort of volume. No online configurator means we at most have founders, and perhaps a few signatures in 30-45 days time which is pointing to an excruciatingly slow ramp when you take into account the other signs like rumored supplier issues and previous ER comments.
An online configurator theoretically should be a very easy thing to program and throw up onto the web compared to everything else in this process, so it also points to the possibility of some components or looks not being finalized for customer order when it comes to volume production.
This mostly isn't about the X, but about the Model 3 which if delayed could (in investor's eyes) allow gen 2 long-range competitors to swoop in and take the electric pie. We at TMC know this won't happpen due to the Supercharger network making Teslas the only viable long-range EV out there and we know that production constraints will still allow Tesla to be #1 even with a 1-2 year M3 delay, but the investor community doesn't and is (rightfully) pricing the stock assuming well-executed large future growth. In the short-term, no MX configurator is bad, bad news and every week it's delayed is an indication that Tesla's volume productions are likely pushed further down the line. I know not everyone agreed with my gloom on the configurator not being released in July as sort-of sort-of-not promised by Elon, but I'm glad I sold off a ton of my short-term holdings above the 270 mark.
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Actually you are laying out why I don't think the webpage and first deliveries should be a big deal. The real risk is behind the scenes with supplier issues and problems with scaling production. They can make a webpage tomorrow and it wouldn't mean a thing, assuming the supplier issues are not actually items on the webpage. I assume the issues are trim, actuators, cables humdrum stuff. They can do the webpage, ship 50 cars and then fall flat on their face with production only 50 X/week for 2 quarters. THAT is the risk that is built into the stock right now and the website shouldn't logically be a bellweather for that at all. The website should just say they have completed their design, and who in their right mind thinks that TM won't be able to finish the design? That just isn't the risk.
I am not trying to talk down the stock. I was in fact investing trying to catch an "X reveal" rally and am rethinking that logic. I don't think we have as many near term positive catalysts as people think. Put another way, if they did announce the features, site and stuff tomorrow, when is the next catalyst? March? That is a huge red flag for a sell-the-news style event.
Well that depends on "pricing in." It can be argued by the time that CF+ is realized, it'll be too late because if Tesla executes and Model X turns out being as awesome as it's hyped up to be, investors will expect at an earlier point in time that CF+ will occur because the doubt right now is whether or not it will happen, not a question of when. When the SP, get's a pop it'll be a question of when, how much, and how often not will it occur or not.
You're definitely right. Deploying the configurator today does not mean one thing as to whether volume deliveries are close or not. However, I would argue that not deploying the configurator so close to deliveries starting, does actually carry meaning. I agree with your earlier points too that the MX configurator won't skyrocket the price, but I think it'll stop the current disproportional bleeding affecting TSLA right now.
The only reasons to not deploy the configurator are either A) The Osborne effect, or B) Mass deliveries / ramp are not going to go smoothly at all. I don't think the Osborne effect is an impact now because Tesla only needs another 1-2 month's worth of MS orders to backlog those into 2016 (I don't think they'll care about any possible MS-->MX cannibalization in 2016), and I expect US MX estimated wait times to change to mid 2016 with the MX configuration launch. I don't think the Osborne effect is a huge deal either, going back to a number of discussions about how little Sedan and SUV are cross-shopped, so that's why I'm settling on this perhaps not being a great sign for the short term.
I personally am operating under the assumptions that A) Large number of signature or non-signature configurations without an online configurator wouldn't be possible without leaks and/or Tesla would not be willing to NDA all of those individuals, B) MX production from configuration to delivery takes 30-45 days, and that C) Founder and signature deliveries can be completed with extra hand-crafted steps and doesn't necessarily mean the assembly line is fully up and running.
Yes, assuming a down-then up path the optimal time to buy wouldn't be right before the good news comes out, though I wouldn't bet against a May miracle. You would want to be back in Q4 or Q1. The problem with holding right now is exposure to macro issues and Model X issues. The price action is (as always) a fight between fear and fear of missing out.
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