Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Scott Ales]

Well, I hope you guys are right in your assessment of the car. I have 2 reasons for that. First, I want my shares to increase in value (duh), and secondly, I'm hoping a lot of people who already have a Model S will want the X and that will bring a lot of used S's on the market and drive the price down a little (so I can buy a 2 year old, well-kept one for a good price). Yes, I want my cake and eat it too. Who doesn't?

Don't let me discourage you. I am a 30 year car guy with a dealer's license and own a company that provides 300 luxury and exotic car dealers with an online trading platform. Since selling my 2013 P85+ last year I have been trying to snag a loaded but high mileage Model S cheap. With all my efforts and contacts I still don't have one!

Better fortune for you. I think $mid $40s will be the bottom for several years no matter the miles. We will see 500k mile Teslas!

 

[eloder]

Model X First Reviews

A member in the MX forums compiled a list of first press reviews.

While I know product-related announcements tend not to make any TSLA moves (and most seem to agree financials/ramp are the important factors), the press has been almost overwhelmingly positive about the MX so far. I'm hoping we get some sig deliveries quickly to begin sustained positive user reviews as we build up to the next few quarters here.

 

[Drax7]

Musk himself has questioned the path they took, so I guess at least Musk is allowed to question Musk's judgement.

500 robots, huge r&d , delays, overpriced car, who is asking for 6 to 7 seats and falcon doors
and gadgets that usually or eventually malfunction. Hundreds of millions
potentially wasted.

There are no checks and balances , and it probably explains why some top people leave.

 

[smorgasbord]

...who is asking for 6 to 7 seats and falcon doors...

Yeah, why buy an expensive machine when a cheap piece of carbon paper will do?

Between 1939 and 1944, Carlson was turned down by over 20 companies, including IBM and General Electric—neither of which believed there was a significant market for copiers.

from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photocopier#History

I believe Model X is going to be a huge success for Tesla.

 

[Scott Ales]

Yeah, why buy an expensive machine when a cheap piece of carbon paper will do?

from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photocopier#History

I believe Model X is going to be a huge success for Tesla.

Me too!
Disneyland didn't succeed because the parents wanted to go. No one is paying attention to the kids and the cool factor in their eyes. The Model X is the Lamborghini Countach all us 50+ year old people wanted. Seriously, kids will love this car.

 

[jhm]

Me too!
Disneyland didn't succeed because the parents wanted to go. No one is paying attention to the kids and the cool factor in their eyes. The Model X is the Lamborghini Countach all us 50+ year old people wanted. Seriously, kids will love this car.

Good point, my ten-year-old daughter thinks kids would like to arive at school in a car with falcon wing doors. I guess that would be a pretty grand entrance for a fifth grader.

BTW, I've been reading a biography of Walt Disney. His early films like Snow White were really over the top as an artistic endeavor. He nearly ran his studio into the ground trying to produce at such a high level, but his brother Roy helped stabilize him and the studio. In time they learned to make cheaper but profitable films, though it seemed to be at a loss to Walt's artistic ambition. Later in life he sensed his own limits and told others that he would never again make anything as great as Snow White. But later, I think he came quite close with Mary Poppins. Also he took up a fascination with model trains as he became fairly detached from the workings of the studios. In time, this led to his vision for a theme park, Disneyland. In Disneyland he was able to capture much of his artistic vision, an enteractive and immersive theater where the audience is invited into fantasy and story telling wherein life as we would wish it can come true. In Musk, I see a similar kind of drive for wish fulfillment. Disney sought this in fantasy and imagination, while Musk seeks to harness technology to transform wished for and imagined worlds into actual products that change the world. So I would not fault a visionary like Disney or Musk for over the top endulgences. This is in fact the most essential work such persons do. It can be harrowing for investors, but even when there are commercial failures, it is essential work nonetheless.

PS, I'd love to see Musk design a theme park some day.

 

[chickensevil]

500 robots, huge r&d , delays, overpriced car, who is asking for 6 to 7 seats and falcon doors
and gadgets that usually or eventually malfunction. Hundreds of millions
potentially wasted.

There are no checks and balances , and it probably explains why some top people leave.

You arent because you aren't the target market. I still don't understand this need for large SUV vehicles. Yet, that is what the market is buying... in droves.

Ease of loading kids into child seats - check
Top Safety - Check
Superb air filter for cities - check

These are, in fact, things that people have been asking for, even if they don't realize they have been asking for it. I good female friend of mine always buys SUVs because she perceives them as generally safer all around, yet she would totally get the MS (and now even more likely the MX) because of how safe it was because she cares about the safety of her child. Now you have a car that makes it easier to put in her child into a seat, and go shopping in? Of course she is going to go crazy over this car because it was designed with them in mind. And I could go on and on about how all the women I know of drive SUVs even if they don't have children... and a good chunk of the men I know drive SUVs. Why? Because of some of these reasons and more. The Model X wins in every category for the market it is going after except for maybe internal storage... as I still see people griping over that one.

It may not be *for you*, but do say noone is asking for these, is telling that you don't have a clue about the SUV market.

 

[Buddyroe]

Don't let me discourage you. I am a 30 year car guy with a dealer's license and own a company that provides 300 luxury and exotic car dealers with an online trading platform. Since selling my 2013 P85+ last year I have been trying to snag a loaded but high mileage Model S cheap. With all my efforts and contacts I still don't have one!

Better fortune for you. I think $mid $40s will be the bottom for several years no matter the miles. We will see 500k mile Teslas!

Nah, you didn't discourage me any - I have pretty much known it was a long shot. But, it's fun trying, so I will keep on looking. I've seen some good deals, just not quite where I need to be to snatch one up. Then again, my wife goes back to work next year after 19 years of being a stay-at-home mom. My patience will probably run thin and I will up the amount I am willing to spend on a car since we will have more disposable income (I'm not that guy that spends a ton of money on a car.....normally).

 

[ev-enthusiast]

With all these issues in the automotive industry recently, Fiat-Chrysler, Takata now Volkswagen, Audi and others, does anybody see some money flowing from these traditional car companies to TSLA?

As far as we all know, there are some big funds that currently switch from fossil fuel investments to renewable energy companies:
Norway confirms $900bn sovereign wealth fund's major coal divestment
Second AP Fund to divest holdings in a number of fossil-fuel based energy companies
Maybe this all is part of the slide of the utility stocks we have seen in Germany during the last months?!
These big pension funds need some stocks that they are buying...

BTW Norway currently wants to get rid of it's coal plants in Germany.
But nobody wants em anymore, going down with price, but do not find a buyer

 

[RationalOptimist]

Not enough attention is being paid to how big Model X could be in China, home of the chauffeured rich (in hard-to-fathom numbers).
- spectacular, attention-getting doors, offering regal access to...
- glorious second row seats
- the ultimate smog filter... a key benefit none of us saw coming, and hugely pertinent in China
- price no object

I think it can blow away the massive sales in China of top-of-the-line Mercedes, and if so it will rewrite all the demand forecasts for Tesla - and probably, eventually, its ability to generate cash-flow, given that 25% times $140k is a lot more than 25% times $90k.

There seem to be a lot of cranky people on this forum disappointed that Tesla didn't deliver their own vision of what an SUV might be. But Elon's genius has proved, time and again, to be one step ahead in the imagining-the-future game. This car is NOT the perfect vehicle for a guy who wants to use an SUV to lug around big sheets of plywood. Oh tragedy. But it just might turn out to be one that hundreds of thousands of families around the world will crave for its absolutely untouchable promise of safety, with the secret sauce that actually, fellas, it's helluva fun to drive.

 

[Hogfighter]

So the followup question to the higher ASP of the Model X is what if it could been rolled out earlier with an easier ramp if it didn't have all the gee-whiz features? Also, how much cheaper would it be without the falcon doors?

We'll know soon if it was the right strategy.

I think Elon would agree with you. But we can't go back in time, only decide whether today one should bet on TSLA. My worries are with being able to ramp a car this complicated, and the possibility of poor build quality over time. The design of the X is clearly a home run, the mass production of it far from certain.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

During today's press research I did find a lot of articles that mention Tesla only delivered 6 cars or the Model X is too expensive, Tesla will not be able to ramp quickly or what a hype about the Model X or something similar.

But I do see quite a lot of articles as well like this one from UK's best-selling weekly car magazine Auto Express (link):

The Tesla Model X has arrived catapulting electric car pioneers Tesla into the global SUV market. Tesla boss Elon Musk unveiled the new Model X to the world at a special launch event in California, revealing the key features of a groundbreaking car that he hopes will make a similar impact in the premium family SUV market to that which the Tesla Model S has had in the executive car sphere.

While I think the article is written in a neutral way, the corresponding tweet is a bit more positive

Full details are out on the new #Tesla Model X. Get ready for a shock, or several...

BTW additional result from press research:
Did anybody read the news about ZEV alliance (link)?
ZEV alliance expanding to 11 countries now:
Norway ad UK joining from Europe.
Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, Oregon, Rhode Island und Vermont joining from the States.
ICCT is involved (the guys who wanted to help VW promote their Clean Diesel but realized there is a big fraud going on)!

 

[Scott Ales]

My overall Bull mindset comes from where the Tesla opportunity is aligned to everything being required to succeed in the next 25 years. How would ANY other company compete with this in the next 2-3 years? There simply isn't anyone in position.

* Sustainability
* Innovation (hey, Elon is a rocket scientist and has direct access to more)
* Transparency
* Equality (everyone, including Elon, pays the same price with zero negotiations)
* Direct sales (no slimy middlemen and no 75 acre dealerships)
* Safety, security, functionality over the gilded opulent age of the late 20th century
* Autonomous use
* Fuel delivery infrastructure (enables costs to be controlled unlike the oil companies)
* Significant credibility (Paypal, Space-X, Roadster, Model S, Powerwall, Superchargers, GigaFactory, Hyperloop)
* What am I missing?

- - - Updated - - -

Hmm...

Nasdaq pre-market up, TSLA down?

What up?

 

[Robert.Boston]

Moderator's Note

A borderline-snippy discussion about the history of the 40kWh S was moved to random chitchat. Let's focus on short-term price movements in this thread.

Also, a reminder that we have Model X reveal impact on TSLA. I've let this thread wander over to the Model X given that it's been at the top of the news, but after today let's move further discussion into its own thread.

 

[aznt1217]

My overall Bull mindset comes from where the Tesla opportunity is aligned to everything being required to succeed in the next 25 years. How would ANY other company compete with this in the next 2-3 years? There simply isn't anyone in position.

* Sustainability
* Innovation (hey, Elon is a rocket scientist and has direct access to more)
* Transparency
* Equality (everyone, including Elon, pays the same price with zero negotiations)
* Direct sales (no slimy middlemen and no 75 acre dealerships)
* Safety, security, functionality over the gilded opulent age of the late 20th century
* Autonomous use
* Fuel delivery infrastructure (enables costs to be controlled unlike the oil companies)
* Significant credibility (Paypal, Space-X, Roadster, Model S, Powerwall, Superchargers, GigaFactory, Hyperloop)
* What am I missing?

- - - Updated - - -

Hmm...

Nasdaq pre-market up, TSLA down?

What up?

Maybe its because of Garbage like thishttp://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-tesla-modelx-launch-questions-20150930-story.html

Going around. Criticizing that they only delivered 6 cars on Tuesday. I love how they used one of the biggest bs TSLA bears and cited him as a hedgefund manager when he really just operates out of his house. That said, all magnification and focus of the elephant like size press coverage is the Model X ramo up and deliveries now.

I do think what woukd help is if Tesla released a Model X configurator for widespread consumption.

 

[jhm]

With all these issues in the automotive industry recently, Fiat-Chrysler, Takata now Volkswagen, Audi and others, does anybody see some money flowing from these traditional car companies to TSLA?

As far as we all know, there are some big funds that currently switch from fossil fuel investments to renewable energy companies:
Norway confirms $900bn sovereign wealth fund's major coal divestment
Second AP Fund to divest holdings in a number of fossil-fuel based energy companies
Maybe this all is part of the slide of the utility stocks we have seen in Germany during the last months?!
These big pension funds need some stocks that they are buying...

BTW Norway currently wants to get rid of it's coal plants in Germany.
But nobody wants em anymore, going down with price, but do not find a buyer

Yeah, it's a bit late to be divesting from coal. In the US nearly half of coal plants have been retired over the Las three years. But of those that remain their utilization is only about 55% of capacity. Even combined cycle natural gas plants have 50% capacity factors. The economics of baseload generation is that these plants need to run at about 90% of capacity. At much lower utilization the capex and fixed cost components overwhelm any savings on cheap fuel making for much higher levelized costs per kWh.


So who wants to buy a baseload plant with less than half utilization? Such an asset has already lost at least half its value, even if there were willing buyers in the market.

The thing that is really scary about an asset bubble, like the 2007 mortgage debacle, is that corporations like utilities and banks are quite unwilling to write down assets and book a loss. The utilities will go for years with overvalued assets on their books hoping that investors won't notice. This feeds the reluctance to take any write down because to do so would signal to investors that in fact the company is sitting on toxic assets.

So roughly speaking utility investors can simply follow capacity factors that government energy agencies publish. When capacity factors for baseload are about 35% below pro forma levels, then all these plants may be overvalued by about 50%. There is massive oversupply already in the utility space. Income investors are sleep walking into a disaster.

 

[mrdoubleb]

I think this can be discussed here due to the imminent impact on TSLA... anyone feeling a bit nervous about the Q3 delivery numbers? We have not heard about any issues out of the factory save for that 1 lost day due to the power outage and we know how big the backlog is, so i was not worried until this morning. However, with the first numbers out for September from Europe, looks like the usual 3rd month push was not happening in Norway, Netherlands and Sweden (so far).

One theory is P85D and 70D deliveries to RHD countries was started this quarter - we seem to have anecdotal evidence, which could explain the shifted focus (we do not have official UK numbers just rumors and estimates). However, if that is not the reason, we could be looking at a much smaller European quarter than Q2.

Now, before anyone runs with this, i do not want to start a bad rumor, this could be nothing, other countries reporting in could show big gains and for all I know we could have a record quarter. Or Q3 may have been a bit more focused on North America or Asia. However the EU wiki is usually dead on as it works from official registration data, so I am wondering if there is something I am missing.

PS: Norwegian numbers are not in yet, but on the 26th a local forum cited numbers as little as a bit over 100 so I would certainly expect a drop there... unless that data was bogus.

 

[uselesslogin]

I think this can be discussed here due to the imminent impact on TSLA... anyone feeling a bit nervous about the Q3 delivery numbers? We have not heard about any issues out of the factory save for that 1 lost day due to the power outage and we know how big the backlog is, so i was not worried until this morning. However, with the first numbers out for September from Europe, looks like the usual 3rd month push was not happening in Norway, Netherlands and Sweden (so far).

One theory is P85D and 70D deliveries to RHD countries was started this quarter - we seem to have anecdotal evidence, which could explain the shifted focus (we do not have official UK numbers just rumors and estimates). However, if that is not the reason, we could be looking at a much smaller European quarter than Q2.

Now, before anyone runs with this, i do not want to start a bad rumor, this could be nothing, other countries reporting in could show big gains and for all I know we could have a record quarter. Or Q3 may have been a bit more focused on North America or Asia. However the EU wiki is usually dead on as it works from official registration data, so I am wondering if there is something I am missing.

PS: Norwegian numbers are not in yet, but on the 26th a local forum cited numbers as little as a bit over 100 so I would certainly expect a drop there... unless that data was bogus.

My feeling is the lack of a push means Tesla is in control and they will slightly beat at the very least. If they were behind they could put cars on faster ships and sell more loaners. Also, there didn't seem to be any significant delays either, so that has been an indicator in the past. Tesla will likely beat by a few hundred cars again.

 

[sub]

We know that they have a back log of orders, ~2 months give or take in all regions. The only possible issue is at the factory (or shipping) and we have not heard anything. Losing production capacity makes no sense so IMO they did no worse than meet guidance. Of course we know that the stock can tank even when they do exactly what they said they were going to do.

 

[uselesslogin]

Maybe its because of Garbage like thishttp://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-tesla-modelx-launch-questions-20150930-story.html

Going around. Criticizing that they only delivered 6 cars on Tuesday. I love how they used one of the biggest bs TSLA bears and cited him as a hedgefund manager when he really just operates out of his house. That said, all magnification and focus of the elephant like size press coverage is the Model X ramo up and deliveries now.

I do think what woukd help is if Tesla released a Model X configurator for widespread consumption.

The Spiegel quote aside I feel like combined with the chatter on the Model X forums and this quote from a Tesla spokesperson getting the signature series out the door by the end of they year would be a success for Tesla at this point. I don't know if the market will see it that way, but I think that the ramp will not come as quickly as we would like. OTOH it sounds like Tesla will make it up with more Model S sales.

On Wednesday, Tesla spokeswoman Khobi Brooklyn declined to provide more specific production or delivery estimates.

“Right now we're focused on delivering Signature Model X to customers,” she said. “We'll have more information to share in the coming months.”


The company has told investors it will make about 50,000 cars this year, mostly Model S sedans, with a plan to increase that to 85,000 to 90,000 vehicles next year.

Anyway, we have next year's guidance BTW.