Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Scott Ales]

Consider signing this petition. Personally, I feel VW's actions were wrong on so many levels they could never make things right. Someone really should go to jail over this if the world doesn't expect it to happen again. Shameless. At minimum, all the rats should be exposed. This story continues to be directly linked to our short term movements and needs to be in front of everyone until it is fully exposed. Having every T, D, & H "want to be blogger" writing about Tesla's most minuscule move with baloney headlines instead of the (known) massive, criminal action we were subjected to by VW is nothing short of bizarre.

Demand that Volkswagen buy back all defective diesel vehicles

 

[anon]

TSLA price target reduce to $450 from $465 at Morgan Stanley: http://www.streetinsider.com/Analys...duced+to+$450+at+Morgan+Stanley/10948991.html

Down $5.66 to $240.49 pre-market as a result!

 

[Scott Ales]

Unfortunately, I think were going to be tested for short term new lows today or this week unless there is a catalyst otherwise from Tesla. The general perception is that Tesla missed on Guidance. However slight it is in actuality or perceived, we know there is a massive short following and even the slightest "missed" information or real news freaks the majority in an instant.

It reminds me of a perfect analogy. My father in law worked for Oscar Meyer for 30 years. Back in the 1970s they used to drive the hogs up a spiral ramp to the 10th floor. This allowed for the use of gravity throughout the processing system. Every once in a while one rouge pig would decide he or she wasn't going up that ramp and would turn for no reason and run the other way, down the ramp. If the herder didn't stop them instantly, all the other pigs would turn and follow them back down the ramp! There was nothing he could do to stop the direction of the herd once that happened. He just had to let them all go down and realize they were stuck at the bottom before he drove them all back up and past where they previously were. And of course to their ultimate demise!

Hah! It's coming shorts, you can't avoid it by squealing and running the other way. So take your profits while you can before you become a ham sandwich.

 

[RationalOptimist]

TSLA price target reduce to $450 from $465 at Morgan Stanley: http://www.streetinsider.com/Analys...duced+to+$450+at+Morgan+Stanley/10948991.html

Down $5.66 to $240.49 pre-market as a result!

"Model X price makes 2016 volume targets difficult to achieve." He's a strange man, that Adam. You'd think if you were going to cut a target, you'd make it meaningful. $15? You might as well say. "Model X price makes 2016 cash-flow targets easier to achieve."

Meanwhile Vetr Inc have cut TSLA to 'hold'. May be a rough day.

 

[Hogfighter]

TSLA price target reduce to $450 from $465 at Morgan Stanley: http://www.streetinsider.com/Analys...duced+to+$450+at+Morgan+Stanley/10948991.html

Down $5.66 to $240.49 pre-market as a result!

Okay, that's it. I'm declaring this a buying opportunity, a la Causalien. Yes, the X is complicated. Yes, they have to ramp up deliveries in Q4.

Production has seemed to pick up pace on the S (check out the delivery tracker). Tesla Energy has been all but forgotten. The X has 2 suppliers that are limiting the ramp, but it's totally different than when the S was having supplier issues (remember when no one believed that they'd deliver 20k cars in 2013?). They have stated that they are only 3-4 months away from being free cash flow positive.

And now we have AJ stating that the X is too expensive? Um....I thought that analysts like it when products produced by companies that they follow sell for high prices.

 

[Newb]

Okay, that's it. I'm declaring this a buying opportunity, a la Causalien. Yes, the X is complicated. Yes, they have to ramp up deliveries in Q4.

I'm inclined to disagree with you. I think we'll stay in unstable territory and might even slip further down towards $220 in the weeks ahead. The "price of Model X, thus lower demand"-topic is futile, since Tesla is still production constrained (even more so with the X) and they seem to have massive problems with starting actual production of Model X Signature vehicles, evident from the still missing delivery dates for any finalized Sig cars. Since the slow X production ramp up is not priced in yet (I read somewhere that some analyst expects around 5,000 Model X to be delivered this year (nope, won't happen!)), there's going to be some disappointments for some investors in the short-term.

 

[Scott Ales]

I'm inclined to disagree with you. I think we'll stay in unstable territory and might even slip further down towards $220 in the weeks ahead. The "price of Model X, thus lower demand topic" is futile, since Tesla is still production constrained (even more so with the X) and they seem to have massive problems with starting actual production of Model X Signature vehicles, evident from the still missing delivery dates for any finalized Sig cars. Since the slow X production ramp up ist not priced in yet (I read somewhere that some analyst expects around 5,000 Model X to be delivered this year (nope, won't happen!)), there's going to be some disappointments for some investors in the short-term.

If I were not fully involved I would wait to buy and agree. There is a higher likelihood it will drop than it will raise. There just doesn't seem to be a backstop strong enough right now. Unless something really interesting that HASN'T been previously shared comes from the company or Elon. And there is little to gain driving the stock value up by them. I'm thinking they are less interested in that effort since the recent offering and will consider the near future stock price a simple by-product of their current responsibilities. Building and delivering vehicles and batteries! Can't fault them for that. We'll just have to ride it out.

 

[doggusfluffy]

SolarCity and Temecula Valley Unified School District Announce Solar and Energy Storage Project Expected to Save the District Millions - WSET.com - ABC13

TEMECULA, Calif., Oct. 6, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- SolarCity (NASDAQ: SCTY) and Temecula Valley Unified School District (TVUSD) are together installing a six megawatt solar and energy storage project across 19 schools and the district's administrative office. The project, which includes energy storage systems at five sites, required no upfront investment and is expected to save the district more than $520,000 within the first year of operation alone, and $35 million over 25 years by providing affordable power at a discount to utility rates.

 

[Drax7]

"If something is important enough, you should try even if the probable outcome is failure."
Elon words.
Model X is done, it will not fail, though it could have been a simpler build, time to look beyond the valley.

 

[austinEV]

Unfortunately, I think were going to be tested for short term new lows today or this week unless there is a catalyst otherwise from Tesla. The general perception is that Tesla missed on Guidance. However slight it is in actuality or perceived, we know there is a massive short following and even the slightest "missed" information or real news freaks the majority in an instant.

It reminds me of a perfect analogy. My father in law worked for Oscar Meyer for 30 years. Back in the 1970s they used to drive the hogs up a spiral ramp to the 10th floor. This allowed for the use of gravity throughout the processing system. Every once in a while one rouge pig would decide he or she wasn't going up that ramp and would turn for no reason and run the other way, down the ramp. If the herder didn't stop them instantly, all the other pigs would turn and follow them back down the ramp! And there was nothing for the guys trying to drive them could do to stop the change. They just had to let them all go down and realize they were stuck at the bottom before they drove them all back up and past where they previously were. And of course to there ultimate demise!

Hah! It's coming shorts, you can't avoid it by squealing and running the other way. So take your profits while you can before you become a ham sandwich.

I don't like it that we are doomed pigs in your analogy And I would argue that the backwards pig was right, just unable to benefit from his wisdom.

 

[Lump]

Is Tesla's (TSLA) Model X Too Expensive? - TheStreet

"Even allowing the Model X ATPs [average transaction price] to decline over time through the introduction of lower-spec models leaves what we believe to be a higher priced vehicle than we expected that may struggle to meet the volume expectations of the market and our forecasts," Jonas wrote in the note. "Unless Tesla introduces significantly cheaper versions soon, we do not expect the company to deliver more than 20k units of Model X in 2016 (70k units in total in 2016 including Model S), particularly when considering an increasingly difficult environment for imported luxury vehicles into China."

Morgan Stanley's Jonas said he expects Model X unit deliveries to be 1,506 in 2015, half the prior outlook. He also made major cuts to estimates in 2016, 2017 and 2018, expecting deliveries of 20,000, 34,000 and 45,000 units, respectively.

 

[ggies07]

"If something is important enough, you should try even if the probable outcome is failure."
Elon words.
Model X is done, it will not fail, though it could have been a simpler build, time to look beyond the valley.

Excellent quote to bring up in this time, everyone needs to have this in the back of their minds at all times.

 

[doggusfluffy]

New VW CEO tells staff to brace for "massive cutbacks"

Speaking to employees at VW headquarters in Wolfsburg, Mueller, who replaced longtime CEO Martin Winterkorn late last month, said all the company's investment plans would be put under review and an existing cost-cutting programme accelerated, cautioning, "this will not be painless".

It was the first admission that the emissions crisis, which has sent tremors through the broader auto industry, could lead to significant job cuts at the company, which employs close to 60,000 at its main factory, roughly 10 percent of its global workforce.

 

[Krugerrand]

Excellent quote to bring up in this time, everyone needs to have this in the back of their minds at all times.

I'm not sure it matters, not because it's not an excellent quote and life philosophy to have but rather because it's just not how many people think. Up thread I asked, 'When is a mistake a good thing?' I gave one answer, but there are a lot of answers to that question. Again, though, that's not how many people think or are programmed from childhood. It's a shame so many live in fear, but alas that is the reality of man.

 

[eepic]

Is Tesla's (TSLA) Model X Too Expensive? - TheStreet

Adam Jonas is off on a weird tangent again. Nothing about the Model X pricing has changed - Musk said a while ago the MX would be $5k more than the MS. The fact that they don't need to start selling a MX 70D or even MX 85D until next year is actually great from a business point of view, Tesla gets to price discriminate and have eager buyers spend for the premium high margin versions first. A fair criticism I would have accepted would be that the ramp up may be later/slower than previously thought (we don't know when the first sigs will be produced yet).

 

[aznt1217]

Adam Jonas is off on a weird tangent again. Nothing about the Model X pricing has changed - Musk said a while ago the MX would be $5k more than the MS. The fact that they don't need to start selling a MX 70D or even MX 85D until next year is actually great from a business point of view, Tesla gets to price discriminate and have eager buyers spend for the premium high margin versions first. A fair criticism I would have accepted would be that the ramp up may be later/slower than previously thought (we don't know when the first sigs will be produced yet).

The struggle is real to understand his logic... Tesla is just doing what it did with S. Higher more fully loaded cars rolled out first and then the rest later.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Adam Jonas is off on a weird tangent again. Nothing about the Model X pricing has changed - Musk said a while ago the MX would be $5k more than the MS. The fact that they don't need to start selling a MX 70D or even MX 85D until next year is actually great from a business point of view, Tesla gets to price discriminate and have eager buyers spend for the premium high margin versions first. A fair criticism I would have accepted would be that the ramp up may be later/slower than previously thought (we don't know when the first sigs will be produced yet).

Adam is just worried about all the X cancellations he is hearing of. This stock will see $225.00 test this week. That is the line in the sand. If it breaks 225 it is back to $180s. This stock is in a downtrend. Upcoming earnings will be the only thing that can save it imho.

 

[jhm]

Blind Faith Update

Blind Faith Price Targets - Page 13

We're getting into some really good prices for long-term accumulation. Sentiment is dropping below the 15th percentile. Median sentiment 12-month BFPT is at $355. Huge upside.

 

[AlMc]

Adam Jonas is off on a weird tangent again. Nothing about the Model X pricing has changed - Musk said a while ago the MX would be $5k more than the MS. The fact that they don't need to start selling a MX 70D or even MX 85D until next year is actually great from a business point of view, Tesla gets to price discriminate and have eager buyers spend for the premium high margin versions first. A fair criticism I would have accepted would be that the ramp up may be later/slower than previously thought (we don't know when the first sigs will be produced yet).

I agree. I just don't get him/his team at times. No offense intended to people that may be dealing with this issue...but, he appears 'bipolar' with many of his writings in the past 12 months.

TM won't have to sell one X priced under $100K for a long time...most priced closer to $130K. In addition, as with other TM products, priority will eventually be given to the higher dollar Xs for 2016 with little regard to your place in the reservation line.

 

[Drax7]

Blind Faith Price Targets - Page 13

We're getting into some really good prices for long-term accumulation. Sentiment is dropping below the 15th percentile. Median sentiment 12-month BFPT is at $355. Huge upside.

Hi JHM, How many standard deviations are we from intrinsic value trajectory?