Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[sub]

Does anyone have quotes or links to what production lines are currently running, at what rate, and what model? I think the answer to most if not all of these questions is "no". If that is the case, it's all just speculation. How do we know what BIW2 is doing? Could be doing 500 MS a day right now. We are 2 months away from the last conference call, Tesla had a pretty good idea at that point what they could do to close out the year.

i vote to get Sig Model X sigs out and pump out MS and get 50k units out the door.

also, some around here have a very short memory. It seems to me that every time we think nothing good is coming to move the stock, something unexpectedly good moves the stock.

Feel free reed to resume your regularly scheduled doom and gloom.

 

[MitchJi]

Question:
I remember reading that the reason that the new line has a lot more robots than the older line is because they don't need to reconfigure the robots to switch production. Doesn't that mean that they can switch production relatively easily from MX to MS or from MS to MX?

 

[Cosmacelf]

Looks like Tesla stock price will continue to decline as long as no positive news about either Model X production or Model S quarterly numbers are announced. Right now, you have to take the position that Model X production is stalled (waiting on suppliers, and no one knows how long that will take), and the 50,000 yearly number won't be met. As each day goes by without good news on either of these fronts, the stock is going to slide. Sure, long term, rosy picture (maybe, these delays are affecting cash, you know), but I wouldn't be buying Tesla right now...

 

[hockeythug]

Question:
I remember reading that the reason that the new line has a lot more robots than the older line is because they don't need to reconfigure the robots to switch production. Doesn't that mean that they can switch production relatively easily from MX to MS or from MS to MX?

Musk mentioned that on a previous conference call I believe. Might have to dig up the transcripts. Really is the only place they provide color on that stuff.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Does anyone have quotes or links to what production lines are currently running, at what rate, and what model? I think the answer to most if not all of these questions is "no". If that is the case, it's all just speculation. How do we know what BIW2 is doing? Could be doing 500 MS a day right now. We are 2 months away from the last conference call, Tesla had a pretty good idea at that point what they could do to close out the year.

i vote to get Sig Model X sigs out and pump out MS and get 50k units out the door.

also, some around here have a very short memory. It seems to me that every time we think nothing good is coming to move the stock, something unexpectedly good moves the stock.

Feel free reed to resume your regularly scheduled doom and gloom.

I do not have time do dig for links, but running "old" BIW line producing MS, new BIW line producing MX, and then, at some point blending them together on the new BIW line was discussed by Elon during the Q2 call. I follow this pretty closely, and had quite a few post on this topic scattered through different threads.

I am not known for spreading doom and gloom, but the reality is just that - reality.

Once again in a grand scheme of things this is just noise, but this is short time price movements thread. There is very likely that Tesla will not be able to deliver more than 47K cars this year. I believe they will address it during the Q3 call, and SP reaction to this, with all the bears high fiving and screeming "I told you so" will not be kind.

I am not saying that this is what will definitely happen, but I feel that we are heading that way.

I am extremely bullish on this company long term, though.

BTW did anybody noticed brilliance of their decision *NOT* to introduce lower priced variant of Model X until later next year? This will ensure continuing strong demand for MS well into the next year, than they will introduce lower price MX variant *and* possibly refresh of the MS. This is "energizer bunny" of the demand generation. Simply brilliant.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Four more carmakers join diesel emissions row | Environment | The Guardian

“The issue is a systemic one” across the industry, said Nick Molden, whose company Emissions Analytics tested the cars. The Guardian revealed last week that diesel cars from Renault, Nissan, Hyundai, Citroen, Fiat, Volvo and Jeep all pumped out significantly more NOx in more realistic driving conditions. NOx pollution is at illegal levels in many parts of the UK and is believed to have caused many thousands of premature deaths and billions of pounds in health costs.

 

[Papafox]

I'm pretty confident Tesla will sell 46k cars in 2015 and 75k in 2016. So a year from now when auto sales are up 65% y/y plus hundreds of MWh of Power products, the stock will be looking pretty good.

All this is consistent with a long-term revenue growth rate of 50%. So the short term question is how cheap can we get these shares?

I remember the last time we had a deep dip like this. AlMc was advocating a more cautious buying philosophy and I was advocating a "buy now before it goes back up" approach. In the end, we both made money from our strategies during the dip. I'm starting to get more conservative with time, though. Many friends and family members are now looking to me for a nod of when to buy into Tesla this time. I'm likely going to advocate a buy half your shares when we appear to have bottomed out and buy the other half after the 3rd Q ER.

 

[FredTMC]

Question:
I remember reading that the reason that the new line has a lot more robots than the older line is because they don't need to reconfigure the robots to switch production. Doesn't that mean that they can switch production relatively easily from MX to MS or from MS to MX?

I recall that was was different about the new robotic line was that the robots do NOT switch tools on their arm. In other words each robot uses one and only one tool. By contrast, on the old line, some of the robots switch out the tools on the end of their arms.

 

[AlMc]

I remember the last time we had a deep dip like this. AlMc was advocating a more cautious buying philosophy and I was advocating a "buy now before it goes back up" approach. In the end, we both made money from our strategies during the dip. I'm starting to get more conservative with time, though. Many friends and family members are now looking to me for a nod of when to buy into Tesla this time. I'm likely going to advocate a buy half your shares when we appear to have bottomed out and buy the other half after the 3rd Q ER.

You are correct..and you have a way better memory than I :wink:. I am happy we both made a few $....just goes to show you different strategies work! Al

 

[aznt1217]

And now... comes the negative press from Musk's comments on AAPL which will somehow get spun into a story on various "credible" financial outlets.

 

[FredTMC]

This line has originally had capacity of 400 cars/shift. So original 2 shift capacity was 800 cars/80 hours week (2 shifts). At some point there were some improvements done to this line and it also was run at more than two shifts for quite some time. I do not know precisely whether they run three shifts (120 hours per week), or somewhat less (may be 100 hours), but this line did not run at more than 1100 cars/week. This was the number that I also saw at a board during my factory tour this summer. So I believe that this line can probably run at 1100 cars/week average, and this requires more than 2 shifts.

Thanks again

With respect to meeting guidance, I'm inclined to believe the following:

if the old Robotic line used for MS BIW is truely the current limiting factor on Model S production, then tesla will likely be motivated to run this line on weekends too. Based on Vgrinshpun's numbers above, it's possible that tesla could produce an additional 500 Model S BIW cars per weekend. So, marrying the 1100/week above with 500/week on weekends and suddenly tesla cracks out 1600 Model S per week. Thats what I would do. Just sayin' there's a chance.

Stay thirsty my friends...

 

[ludicrousspeed]

We've had over a 15% drop this month alone and the only legit reason is the 2015 delivery miss. I wonder how much this miss is being factored into the stock price today... If they lower guidance on the next call it'll be interesting to see how much more of a hit the stock will take. Either way, history repeats itself, and the short-term shortcomings of the company are always forgotten in the long-run and banks tend to "downgrade" at the bottom.

 

[Kalud]

We've had over a 15% drop this month alone and the only legit reason is the 2015 delivery miss. I wonder how much this miss is being factored into the stock price today... If they lower guidance on the next call it'll be interesting to see how much more of a hit the stock will take. Either way, history repeats itself, and the short-term shortcomings of the company are always forgotten in the long-run and banks tend to "downgrade" at the bottom.

Fair enough, its getting more and more an artificial seasonal effect, if you look at the chart from late 2013, starting in September going to the end of the year. Expectations are high for the whole year target, then deliveries peaks toward Q4 and the chart goes up again, at least after Q1 and into summer...

 

[Julian Cox]

Silly Wall Street games aside. Back in reality Tesla is over the main spending hump of getting Model X and Tesla Energy launched with only Model S to rely upon for income. Now the deliveries, revenues, cash flows and profits will improve from here on out. Drastically.

It is very hard to imagine that Wall Street is so inept that it does not understand this. The downgrade from Morgan Stanley is a classic: The Model X reservation list is worth $25K more per vehicle in high margin options than they anticipated. Obviously a downgrade is called for. Really? Personally I think it is a stunning strategy to front-load high value sales during the X ramp and if some customers slip off into mature cost-optimized Model S production on the basis of a combination of urgency and affordability then great.

If we take a look at the Model S launch in 2012, there was a good quarter of market hangover from the the development costs before realization set-in that Tesla was on to a winner. I suspect in the light of that experience there will be a delayed reaction but the realization will not take quite so long. Particularly given the fact that Model S numbers are likely to come up to meet any Model X delivery number shortcomings during this calendar year when in 2012 if a customer could not take delivery of a Model S there was no place else to go.

Bottom line. Company going up, price coming down. There is money in them there hills.

 

[dc_h]

If they are supplier constrained, why don't they run Model S on line two during the week and do a few Model X units on an a Saturday. Seems like eating the overtime costs would be worth it and allow them to validate the line for Model S, as well as Model X and be ready to run as the supplier issues are resolved?

I do not have time do dig for links, but running "old" BIW line producing MS, new BIW line producing MX, and then, at some point blending them together on the new BIW line was discussed by Elon during the Q2 call. I follow this pretty closely, and had quite a few post on this topic scattered through different threads.

I am not known for spreading doom and gloom, but the reality is just that - reality.

Once again in a grand scheme of things this is just noise, but this is short time price movements thread. There is very likely that Tesla will not be able to deliver more than 47K cars this year. I believe they will address it during the Q3 call, and SP reaction to this, with all the bears high fiving and screeming "I told you so" will not be kind.

I am not saying that this is what will definitely happen, but I feel that we are heading that way.

I am extremely bullish on this company long term, though.

BTW did anybody noticed brilliance of their decision *NOT* to introduce lower priced variant of Model X until later next year? This will ensure continuing strong demand for MS well into the next year, than they will introduce lower price MX variant *and* possibly refresh of the MS. This is "energizer bunny" of the demand generation. Simply brilliant.

 

[ludicrousspeed]

Silly Wall Street games aside. Back in reality Tesla is over the main spending hump of getting Model X and Tesla Energy launched with only Model S to rely upon for income. Now the deliveries, revenues, cash flows and profits will improve from here on out. Drastically.

It is very hard to imagine that Wall Street is so inept that it does not understand this.

It seems pretty obvious to me that big institutions are trying their best to keep the SP down before some of the major events that are to come in the following years so they can continue to buy in at these prices. Kind of how Bank of America has ridiculously low price targets ($65 until recently) but own 375K shares (11% increase.)

Once the general public rids themselves of all these false perceptions (takes hours to charge, only can charge with supercharger, loses money on each car, relies on tax incentives, base X price of $132K, easy for competitors to enter the market, etc) it will be much harder to keep the stock down. Much easier to spin every news story against a company that is so commonly misperceived. It's much harder to get people to think negatively of a big company, like apple for example, once people see their product on a daily basis and know more about it.

 

[Scott Ales]

It seems pretty obvious to me that big institutions are trying their best to keep the SP down before some of the major events that are to come in the following years so they can continue to buy in at these prices. Kind of how Bank of America has ridiculously low price targets ($65 until recently) but own 375K shares (11% increase.)

Once the general public rids themselves of all these false perceptions (takes hours to charge, only can charge with supercharger, loses money on each car, relies on tax incentives, base X price of $132K, easy for competitors to enter the market, etc) it will be much harder to keep the stock down. Much easier to spin every news story against a company that is so commonly misperceived. It's much harder to get people to think negatively of a big company, like apple for example, once people see their product on a daily basis and know more about it.

Sorry, I couldn't resist adding...

Nobody talks about the EVs going 500k+ miles. The fleet Tesla is manufacturing today will be around much longer than we have ever seen before.

 

[doggusfluffy]

VW Messed Up, But the Emissions Scandal won't Turn off Customers - Fortune

Also, VW has very smartly handled this crisis with an immediate admission of guilt, the resignation of the CEO, and the full assumption of responsibility for the problem. There was no blaming of “consumer driving error” or “supplier part malfunction.” They acted first and then launched the necessary thorough internal investigation. They also indicated willingness to cooperate with all external investigations. In short, though caught in a position of egregious guilt, they behaved in what appeared to be a very principled way.

 

[sub]

VW Messed Up, But the Emissions Scandal won't Turn off Customers - Fortune

You know the saying, they are not sorry for what they did, only sorry (for themselves) that they got caught. They would have continued on with their scam indefinitely had they not been exposed.

 

[Julian Cox]

(takes hours to charge, only can charge with supercharger, loses money on each car, relies on tax incentives, base X price of $132K, easy for competitors to enter the market, etc)

Good concise BS list. Hint. The competition does not have a competing product. Not even close. Tesla has a waiting list of customers for all three product lines (including Tesla Energy), cash in the bank, global independent sales, service and charging infrastructure and is nearing Phase 1 completion of the worlds first very large scale vertically integrated battery production facility, something no competitor has even got on a drawing board, it's also a fortnight or so away from going live with a few 10's of thousands of semi-autonomous vehicles, is pretty much bound to sweep the world's auto industry awards again with the Model X and is less than six months away from unveiling a high performance V6 Mercedes E-Class equivalent vehicle for reservations at a US average vehicle sales price point of $35K and the equivalent of 50 cents per gallon to fuel that will quite likely smash up everyone else's 2016 production plans as consumers evacuate dealer lots in droves to sit in Tesla's online reservation queue instead.

But sure (Baron's) not much by way of positive catalysts to look forward to between now and Model 3.

Information advantage is good.