Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[CALGARYARSENAL]

"Regarding the watch, Jony & his team created a beautiful design, but the functionality isn't compelling yet. By version 3, it will be." This is Musk's recent tweet. I could have sworn he was talking about the Model X.

 

[jhm]

We should be careful in assuming every hope as being a given. Both Elon and Deepak said in Q1 earnings call, that they were extremely confident of cash flow positive by Q4 of this year. This is a definite change in tone, if now he is saying 2016. Good luck to everyone, whatever your position is.

Tesla Motors (TSLA) Elon Reeve Musk on Q1 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha

Thanks for the transcript quote. I think we should explore the possibility of positive cashflow in Q4. Does anybody have an estimate of how many cars must be delivered to get to positive cashflow in Q4? This may give us an indication as to what Tesla may be targeting.

Additionally, if they have a lot of inventory in transit for Q3 perhaps we'll see some early indication in October registrations where available. So let's keep out eyes on that.

 

[AudubonB]

FWD = Falcon-wing door, Four-wheel drive, Front-wheel drive

I've been trying to champion SvC and SpC here since day 0....to a very limited success. Super-easy to understand.

We have a forum member here whose handle is STFUBYOBBQ....or something like that.

And now I'll have to try to find the SpaceX acronym memo mentioned. Hadn't heard of that.

 

[MitchJi]

I bit the bullet today and sold my remaining Dec15 190 calls and then bought a somewhat smaller number of Jan17 180s in order to derisk the short term. Would be delighted if I am wrong to do this, but the current environment allows for such trades in a reasonably efficient fashion.

Edit:
This was a rather painless decision. I swapped better performance in the event of a quick recovery for a safer position that allows substantial profits during 2016 as Tesla turns cash positive and the Model X ramps up. So far I have always found ways to profit from dips over the long run, and my strategy is now in place. Deep in the money calls fare better than OTM calls when surprises happen, but holding deep ITM calls too long on a downswing can eventually bite you if you're stubborn about holding onto them.

Keep your eyes open. Dips are both painful events and great opportunities to position for future profits.

Thank you very much for the excellent advice!

Clarification:
The only way that I intend to keep any of my Jan 2016's beyond the end of Nov is if Tesla is cranking out 1k-2k MX's per week, which we will know about (probably before it happens), by keeping an eye on the Model X Ordering, Production, Delivery Forum.

Questions (soliciting opinions from everyone):
Does anyone disagree with the premise, that this dip would not have happened (probably a substantial rise, instead) if the MX Production Ramp had gone smoothly (something like at least 500 cars over the first 1-3 weeks, and growing quickly to 1k-2k per week?

What does everyone think will happen to the SP, if by the end of Nov is if Tesla is cranking out 1k-2k MX's per week (which seems feasible to me, if they can get the parts)?

Thanks for the transcript quote. I think we should explore the possibility of positive cashflow in Q4. Does anybody have an estimate of how many cars must be delivered to get to positive cashflow in Q4? This may give us an indication as to what Tesla may be targeting.

Additionally, if they have a lot of inventory in transit for Q3 perhaps we'll see some early indication in October registrations where available. So let's keep out eyes on that.

How much CAPEX does Tesla have tied up in MX parts? Is there a possibility of a MX related double problem (no production plus increased CAPEX due to MX parts inventory) becoming public at either the Q3 or Q4 ER?

 

[JRP3]

We have a forum member here whose handle is STFUBYOBBQ....or something like that.

omgwtfbyobbq

 

[mmd]

Thank you very much for the excellent advice!

What does everyone think will happen to the SP, if by the end of Nov is if Tesla is cranking out 1k-2k MX's per week (which seems feasible to me, if they can get the parts)?

How much CAPEX does Tesla have tied up in MX parts? Is there a possibility of a MX related double problem (no production plus increased CAPEX due to MX parts inventory) becoming public at either the Q3 or Q4 ER?

2k MX per week is crazy optimistic! At that rate, Tesla would produce nearly 100k MX next year! By Q1'16, it would exhaust all the MX reservations it got in the last many years. There is no reason to set up the line for such high production rate. I think 600-800/week of MX production is more sustainable and healthy. This is also in line with what Tesla has said in Q2'15 letter: 1600-1800/week steady state demand and production for S&X combined. Assuming 1000/week for MS as now, 600-800 should be for MX.

But I believe, the line for MX is not automated yet, and the capex for that is to come in Q4, or Q1'16 latest. The earlier it is, the better.

 

[jhm]

How much CAPEX does Tesla have tied up in MX parts? Is there a possibility of a MX related double problem (no production plus increased CAPEX due to MX parts inventory) becoming public at either the Q3 or Q4 ER?

I am not an accountant, but I am married to one. Someone who models cashflow and oncome should be able to work this out in their spreadsheet.

Parts are inventory, not capex. From an income perspective inventory is recognized as an expense under cost of good sold when the complete product is sold. From a cashflow perspective, the net increase in inventory would be a net outflow. I would expect that Tesla had a substantial MX part inventory going into Q4, and we should see this on the Q3 balance sheet. So the question remains, how much will the parts inventory grow by end of Q4. I'm thinking that the might start with about 500 cars worth of inventory and end with 1000. We can probably ignore the 30% of parts common to bother MS and MX. If these MX unique parts are around $70k per car, we are talking about an inventory increase of $3.5M.

So I think the bigger questions are around remaining R&D, tooling and the Gigafactory.

 

[chickensevil]

I am not an accountant, but I am married to one. Someone who models cashflow and oncome should be able to work this out in their spreadsheet.

Parts are inventory, not capex. From an income perspective inventory is recognized as an expense under cost of good sold when the complete product is sold. From a cashflow perspective, the net increase in inventory would be a net outflow. I would expect that Tesla had a substantial MX part inventory going into Q4, and we should see this on the Q3 balance sheet. So the question remains, how much will the parts inventory grow by end of Q4. I'm thinking that the might start with about 500 cars worth of inventory and end with 1000. We can probably ignore the 30% of parts common to bother MS and MX. If these MX unique parts are around $70k per car, we are talking about an inventory increase of $3.5M.

So I think the bigger questions are around remaining R&D, tooling and the Gigafactory.

Those costs should mostly be felt in Q3 or already felt prior to this quarter. There isn't likely to be much as it relates to expanding MX production. I mean the cost of those robots was expensed over a year ago if I'm not mistaken... When they filled the paperwork with the state to get the tax break. That is just one example.

 

[AlMc]

Thanks for the transcript quote. I think we should explore the possibility of positive cashflow in Q4. Does anybody have an estimate of how many cars must be delivered to get to positive cashflow in Q4? This may give us an indication as to what Tesla may be targeting.

Additionally, if they have a lot of inventory in transit for Q3 perhaps we'll see some early indication in October registrations where available. So let's keep out eyes on that.

This would certainly change my short term/medium term model for my PT for TSLA over the next couple months. I am not smart enough to model the exact figures....I will reach out to some forum members capable of doing this to see if they will do this. I would encourage others to do the same.

 

[jhm]

Check out @elonmusk's Tweet: Elon Musk on Twitter:

 

[Krugerrand]

Check out @elonmusk's Tweet: Elon Musk on Twitter:

Yo!

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Very annoyed I wasn't near my computer today. If Tesla opens down Monday, I'm significantly increasing my position. Today's drop was the line in the sand. $220 is the bottom of the channel. Any break on volume IMO should result in an inverse hammer. Way too many catalysts over the next few weeks.

 

[jhm]

So how does Musk know that Apple is in fact building an EV? I wonder is sharing the Supercharger network is in the cards.

 

[chickensevil]

Check out @elonmusk's Tweet: Elon Musk on Twitter:

Im amused by the response by @YoApp and then Elon's response to that. It's the little things in life!

- - - Updated - - -

So how does Musk know that Apple is in fact building an EV? I wonder is sharing the Supercharger network is in the cards.

He doesn't specifically know, I am sure he is just repeating the rumor mill and news reports like everyone else. I say this, because he was more precise in what he said during the Vanity Fair interview (I think it was that, which started this whole thing, right? Either way...) At the point in which it was stated he was commenting about how if Apple is building a car or even just an OS for cars, he isn't surprised that they would try to take talent from Tesla. The reference he used was asking if people had looked at the Apple Watch (which came across as him putting down the watch, lol!) and the impression was they needed all the help they could get.

Point is, you can only say so much in a tweet (which is why I don't *use* twitter, I just read other's tweets, I am waaaaayyy too wordy for that platform) so explaining the minor details wasn't likely to happen.

 

[pGo]

So how does Musk know that Apple is in fact building an EV? I wonder is sharing the Supercharger network is in the cards.

Isn't that very easy for Musk to find out based on the talent poaching both companies are doing?

 

[AlMc]

Short interest reported today at market close: As of 9/30/15 25, 655,xxx. Down about 300,000 (negligible IMO) from two weeks prior.

 

[30seconds]

So how does Musk know that Apple is in fact building an EV? I wonder is sharing the Supercharger network is in the cards.

They are hiring his employees. Pretty much an impossible secret to keep at that point. Plus you have to imagine he is way, way more plugged in than the average bear. I am certain that some at Apple tried to come to Tesla. Under California law they would be free to tell him that they are working on automotive development at Apple without violating any enforceable disclosure agreement.

 

[Papafox]

Very annoyed I wasn't near my computer today. If Tesla opens down Monday, I'm significantly increasing my position. Today's drop was the line in the sand. $220 is the bottom of the channel. Any break on volume IMO should result in an inverse hammer. Way too many catalysts over the next few weeks.

Yeah, I was thinking in early afternoon today that TSLA would open with a nice upward jump Monday morning, but instead of seeing a Friday afternoon upturn in stock price during the final 30 minutes we saw a downturn. Thus I am conflicted on what to expect on opening Monday morning.

 

[MitchJi]

2k MX per week is crazy optimistic! At that rate, Tesla would produce nearly 100k MX next year! By Q1'16, it would exhaust all the MX reservations it got in the last many years. There is no reason to set up the line for such high production rate. I think 600-800/week of MX production is more sustainable and healthy. This is also in line with what Tesla has said in Q2'15 letter: 1600-1800/week steady state demand and production for S&X combined. Assuming 1000/week for MS as now, 600-800 should be for MX.

But I believe, the line for MX is not automated yet, and the capex for that is to come in Q4, or Q1'16 latest. The earlier it is, the better.

I thought that the new line was initially set up only for MX production and for a sustained average of 1600-1800 per week.

 

[Lessmog]

Im amused by the response by @YoApp and then Elon's response to that. It's the little things in life!

- - - Updated - - -



He doesn't specifically know, I am sure he is just repeating the rumor mill and news reports like everyone else. I say this, because he was more precise in what he said during the Vanity Fair interview (I think it was that, which started this whole thing, right? Either way...) At the point in which it was stated he was commenting about how if Apple is building a car or even just an OS for cars, he isn't surprised that they would try to take talent from Tesla. The reference he used was asking if people had looked at the Apple Watch (which came across as him putting down the watch, lol!) and the impression was they needed all the help they could get.

Point is, you can only say so much in a tweet (which is why I don't *use* twitter, I just read other's tweets, I am waaaaayyy too wordy for that platform) so explaining the minor details wasn't likely to happen.

Not entirely unrelated too, considering this April 1 tweet from Tesla: