Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[SebastianR]

With regards to short-term price movements on TSLA: When will they do their next capital raise? That for me is one of the most reliable indicators when we should expect movement in the stock.

Would love to have TSLA back at 265 but right now with a capital raise just done, I don't see that happening. (... and then again, I wish I was wrong )

 

[jhm]

I don't always repeat Apple rumors, but when I do they come from Elon Musk.

So the poaching contact would makes sense for informing Musk without putting him under any specific NDA. If Apple and Tesla were in talks about sharing Superchargers or any other technology, then Musk would not casually say that Apple was making EVs because he would not want to compromise negotiations or violate NDAs.

Another interesting point about poaching, we're hearing that Apple is offering something like 20% higher pay to recruit Tesla talent. This indicates a huge advantage for.Tesla.that employees are willing to pass on such offers.

Consider how much a player like GM would have to offer to get in this game. If Apple really is building an EV, this could be a disaster for traditional automakers from a talent point of view.

So I would expect all this to get press. The headlines will focus on Apple as a threat to Tesla. But they will largely overlook that this is actually a much bigger threat to traditional automakers. This is not Tesla vs. Apple. It's Silicon Valley vs. Detroit.

 

[ScepticMatt]

Why has this video only been viewed 218 times?

View counts on newly released videos are intentionally inaccurate. You'll sometimes see videos with more likes than views.

 

[Yonki]

I saw the line running at a higher weekly rate than what you mention on a more recent tour.

I've haven't been on a tour yet - how do you get an idea of what the weekly rate is from a tour? I wouldn't think they'd just announce it - do you divide ~80 hours by the time it takes to accomplish one step?

 

[MitchJi]

I saw the line running at a higher weekly rate than what you mention on a more recent tour.

Can you tell us what the rate is? Or is 1600-1800 MX per week on the new line feasible, after they get the kinks worked out, if they have the required parts?

 

[Krugerrand]

Another interesting point about poaching, we're hearing that Apple is offering something like 20% higher pay to recruit Tesla talent. This indicates a huge advantage for.Tesla.that employees are willing to pass on such offers.

I've actually heard/read that it's a 60% higher wage plus a $250,000 signing bonus type deal. Regardless of the specifics, you make an interesting point in your post.

 

[AlMc]

I've haven't been on a tour yet - how do you get an idea of what the weekly rate is from a tour? I wouldn't think they'd just announce it - do you divide ~80 hours by the time it takes to accomplish one step?

There is a board in the factory that has weekly goal and current day production IIRC.

Can you tell us what the rate is? Or is 1600-1800 MX per week on the new line feasible, after they get the kinks worked out, if they have the required parts?

Doubt DaveT will tell you an exact figure. NDA prohibits it.

 

[Curt Renz]

This appeared in the Tesla news section of my TD Ameritrade account:

S&P CAPITAL IQ RAISES VIEW ON SHARES OF TESLA TO HOLD FROM SELL

2:45 pm ET October 9, 2015 (S&P Capital IQ)

With TSLA below our $225 target price, we raise our opinion on these volatile shares to hold. Recent developments include the release of the Model X electric SUV vehicle, at a price point above some expectations. With the Q3 Model X launch, we expect sales and EPS to surge in '16. Our target equates to a multiple of 90X our '16 EPS projection of $2.50, reflecting our estimate for rapid automotive profit growth through '17, from '14's base, as well as potential growth from non-automotive business. However, we still see execution risk for these premium valued shares.

 

[doggusfluffy]

In Washington, VW Faces the Music Handelsblatt Global Edition

VW apparently may claim that weaker environmental laws in Germany and Europe do not ban the use of such software, in an attempt to avoid making costly repairs to the millions of its diesel autos.

“Whether and to what extent the software really interferes in a forbidden way is the subject of internal and external examinations,” said a VW spokesperson, who declined to be identified. “Also, it is also still legally unclear whether it is a banned deactivating mechanism along the lines of European norms.”

 

[ggr]

In Washington, VW Faces the Music Handelsblatt Global Edition

VW apparently may claim that weaker environmental laws in Germany and Europe do not ban the use of such software, in an attempt to avoid making costly repairs to the millions of its diesel autos.

“Whether and to what extent the software really interferes in a forbidden way is the subject of internal and external examinations,” said a VW spokesperson, who declined to be identified. “Also, it is also still legally unclear whether it is a banned deactivating mechanism along the lines of European norms.”

Loose translation: "the laws in Europe didn't actually outlaw "defeat devices", like they do in the US, so we are still lying cheating scumbags, but it wasn't illegal here so we don't have to fix it." I don't think this will be a winning strategy.

 

[Krugerrand]

Loose translation: "the laws in Europe didn't actually outlaw "defeat devices", like they do in the US, so we are still lying cheating scumbags, but it wasn't illegal here so we don't have to fix it." I don't think this will be a winning strategy.

But bonus points must be given for the effort.

 

[Julian Cox]

This appeared in the Tesla news section of my TD Ameritrade account:

S&P CAPITAL IQ RAISES VIEW ON SHARES OF TESLA TO HOLD FROM SELL

2:45 pm ET October 9, 2015 (S&P Capital IQ)

With TSLA below our $225 target price, we raise our opinion on these volatile shares to hold. Recent developments include the release of the Model X electric SUV vehicle, at a price point above some expectations. With the Q3 Model X launch, we expect sales and EPS to surge in '16. Our target equates to a multiple of 90X our '16 EPS projection of $2.50, reflecting our estimate for rapid automotive profit growth through '17, from '14's base, as well as potential growth from non-automotive business. However, we still see execution risk for these premium valued shares.

Good. Next up GS with a Buy rating.

Regards all this Apple stuff. It is inconceivable that Musk is not informally coaching Apple via Sir Jonathan Ive on anything from an iWatch that actually brought personal communications closer to telepathy to cars. Whatever happens there will essentially be looking to Musk for direction as its vicarious CEO. Apple was born to revolve around the vision of a Musk or a Jobs like persona and right now there is only one of them and he does not work at Apple. I actually don't think that actually matters to the outcome very much if at all. If Apple brings a design to maturity it would make no sense for them not to to look to Musk / Tesla for a coordinated roll out with Gigafactories, charging and servicing and Musk can absolutely steer Apple in that direction whether Tim Cook likes it or not and secretly he probably likes it because taking responsibility for taking big swings at the world is not Tim's role and never was. Cook = Denethor, Lord and Steward of Gondor. Musk = Aragorn, Isildur's heir, not Tim Cook. Tesla = paths of the dead and within it an army that only Musk can command. SpaceX = Narsil / Andúril. Oil Addiction = The Ring. Legacy Auto Industry = Mordor and all the myriad foul things that dwell there. And no, Legolas and Gimli have not defected to Denethor - at least not yet and Gimli never will. Speaking of Legolas it would not completely amaze me if Jerome Guillen landed the lead EV development role at Apple but rather than that cementing Apple as an adversary that would cement Apple as Tesla's $200 Billion ally and scare the bjesus out of Mordor for real.

- - - Updated - - -

Yes I know it is officially called Apple Watch.

 

[Krugerrand]

Crap, I'm going to have to rewatch that series to make sure I've got it all straight. If we could just stick to unicorns...

 

[woof]

To much LOTR. I'd place the quote from "The Martian" here...but it's not really family friendly. Here's the link:
Quote by Andy Weir: “Elrond,â€￾ Bruce said. “The Council of Elrond. Fr...â€￾

 

[AlMc]

A positive piece: Should have released it Monday as it may get lost over the weekend:The Best Electric Car May Be the Best Car Ever Built -- The Motley Fool

PS: I also feel Musk is more Gandolf (a wizard capable of things impossible for mortal men) to carry on the Tolken theme

 

[DaveT]

Doubt DaveT will tell you an exact figure.

Yep, can't say.

 

[ClownMouth]

Yep, can't say.

Dave, given what you have seen, what are your thoughts on where Tesla ends up for productions/deliveries for the year?

 

[30seconds]

Loose translation: "the laws in Europe didn't actually outlaw "defeat devices", like they do in the US, so we are still lying cheating scumbags, but it wasn't illegal here so we don't have to fix it." I don't think this will be a winning strategy.

So the EU put these regulations in to only control emissions during testing? Right.

 

[DaveT]

I agree with most here that it's going to be a challenge to reach 50k deliveries for the year. However, I think I have a different line of reasoning. I don't think it's production that's the big bottle neck. If Tesla wanted to deliver 16-17k Model S's in Q4, I think they can. I don't there are major production limitations. They can always work on Saturdays (although it'll cost more with overtime) and really push their workers with a super short Thanksgiving break (and not take any other breaks the whole quarter). But the question really is does Tesla WANT to deliver 16-17k Model S's in Q4? And this is where I differ from most people. I think Tesla, for some reason, appears to be hesitant to push production because I think we're hitting the limits of current Model S demand. Do I think Tesla has enough orders to deliver 16-17k Model S's in Q4? Yes, I do. I think there is the demand for that. But the bigger question, that Tesla might be thinking, is is that demand sustainable. 16k cars/quarter is 64k Model Ss annually, and that's probably more than current demand. Thus, Tesla might be thinking it's unwise to push production that high in Q4 just to meet their annual guidance. However, on the other hand they might think it's worth it to push production that high to meet annual guidance since the following quarters they'll have Model X deliveries so they could orchestrate where Q1 2016 doesn't show a drop in total deliveries. I think the biggest clue, however, was the deliveries in Q3. It was lower than I had expected. And I was hoping they would deliver a lot more, ie., 12.5-13k cars, to show they were really serious about meeting year-end guidance. But I think delivering 11,580 vehicles probably signals that they're not fully committed to 50k delivery guidance. But I say "probably" because there's always the possibility that they are. It's possible that they produced a lot more cars than 11,580 last quarter and it's possible that they have enough demand where they feel comfortable to push production/deliveries higher for Q4. Again, I don't see an issue with them be able to produce and deliver the # cars necessary to meet full-year guidance. I just am not convinced that Tesla sees it as a "wise" choice to do so.

Q1 - 10,045 vehicles delivered (11,160 produced)
Q2 - 11,532 vehicles delivered (12,807 produced)
Q3 - 11,580 vehicles delivered (production # unknown, guidance for "just over 12,000 vehicles produced")

Tesla needs to deliver 16,843 cars to meet 50k full year guidance.

 

[AlMc]

DaveT: Don't be a stranger to TMC.....Many (including me) miss at least a monthly megapost. I know that your weekly newletter is a great success and has a good summary of what TM is doing. However, your analysis of TM/TSLA is second to none so please share your thoughts when you have the time/desire.

Thanks Al