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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

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I think autopilot is huge. Looks really cool on the few videos that have surfaced today. I want to pick up more shares, and wanted to wait until Q3 earnings report which I think will drive stock down, but now AP might derail my plans. We could see the start of a squeeze this week. I might need to go all in tomorrow....
 
I wired more cash into my account today and made an appointment to test drive the Model S with AutoPilot for this Friday. I not waiting for a good deal on a used one. Even though I've been in the car business for over 25 years and had my dealer's license since 1989. Might just go for the Full Tilt P90D Ludicrous. I sold my P85+ over a year ago and am tired of ICE cars. AP put me over the top.

And that's after dropping six figures in the last 3 weeks with my options.
 
I wired more cash into my account today and made an appointment to test drive the Model S with AutoPilot for this Friday. I not waiting for a good deal on a used one. Even though I've been in the car business for over 25 years and had my dealer's license since 1989. Might just go for the Full Tilt P90D Ludicrous. I sold my P85+ over a year ago and am tired of ICE cars. AP put me over the top.

And that's after dropping six figures in the last 3 weeks with my options.
I bought my Model S in March. It was the promise of autopilot that put me over the top. I really like TACC, but there is still lots of room for improvement. For one, it does not adjust the speed down for curves, which can be pretty scary on surface streets. It also does not stop for red lights or stop signs. I believe the speed adjustment for curves will come with 7.0, but traffic signal awareness will come later. In the long run, they should work on driving styles and optimize range. I often find that on surface streets I can get better energy efficiency driving smoothly than using TACC. I am optimistic this refinement will come in time, but it's important that with every release like this, the cars become a better value. This is what drives demand, the willingness to spend hard earned money on a product.

From an investor perspective, it's important to know that this contributes to longterm demand creation. It's not the sort of thing that make a dramatics difference in next quarter's numbers, but it accumulates over time. I think the Supercharger functions this way too. It drives longterm demand creation. The cars actually become more valuabke because of it. But it's not going to make a measurable difference in next quarter's numbers, but it does accumulate over time. Hype only gets you so far, but these little improvements really add up.

$220 is a damn good price to buy this stock.
 
I think I may have underestimated the short term impact of autopilot. One of the first videos is already the top post on reddit today.

Screen Shot 2015-10-14 at 9.52.20 PM.png
 
I think I may have underestimated the short term impact of autopilot. One of the first videos is already the top post on reddit today.

View attachment 97879

I think a lot of people did. What people will point out is that this technology existed in the S classes of yore. What people don't realize is... Tesla does it better because it's easier to use, learns, and works better. I hope this snaps us out of this negative slope we've been on which is extremely unmerited.
 
I think a lot of people did. What people will point out is that this technology existed in the S classes of yore. What people don't realize is... Tesla does it better because it's easier to use, learns, and works better. I hope this snaps us out of this negative slope we've been on which is extremely unmerited.

Fundamental question: do you think that Model X production ramp issues will all be solved in reasonable time? The X is the source of the negative slope. Until (unless?) the X ramps up there will be a bunch of people piling onto Tesla.

The 7/AP release (as long as it's not an early release that drops out too much) will help, because it adds lane keep and parking, and those are the driver assistance items that have been missing, but it's not going to drive enough demand to make up for the missing X income that Tesla's capex needs.
 
Fundamental question: do you think that Model X production ramp issues will all be solved in reasonable time? The X is the source of the negative slope. Until (unless?) the X ramps up there will be a bunch of people piling onto Tesla.

Well, it won't be due to demand issues. I find it exceptionally hard to look at an autopilot version of the ModelX for $90k and even have room to consider any other luxury SUV as serious competition.

We are staring the next leg of significant growth squarely in the face. It's just a matter of the rest of the market recognizing this as a $8B revenue company in 2016 with a straight path to $20B in the next few years.

In case anyone missed it, the fleet of teslas now all contribute data to the autopilot systems.

Incredible. Way,way past all other automakers. Tesla is putting distance between themselves and others.
 
Imagine how frustrating it must be for the Tesla team to constantly deal with the skepticism. We feel it and don't know even the half of everything! It must be weird to see the downtrends with all they know. I told one of our managers today who work for us there will be books written, movies made, and history lesson for the rest of time about this. And that's not an exaggeration.

- - - Updated - - -

On another note, there is a real interesting back drop to this AP release. I don't think the general public has a clue that they could buy a car and 1 year later receive a working upgrade with a download overnight. That may be the real story in this event.
 
Did I catch that item about number of Model S with autopilot hardware installed already delivered worldwide wrong?
As far as I know this years production is about 33 000 vehicles and Model S with autopilot hardware installed started end of last year?
Where are all these Model S with autopilot hardware installed coming from?

Electrec reporting on yesterdays call about SW version 7.0 including more autopilot features:
Tesla will start releasing the update tonight in North America, but the roll-out could take a few days. Europe and Asia will follow in a few weeks. Musk says that Tesla has a fleet of 60,000 cars with the Autopilot hardware ready to receive the software.The company is being extremely careful in the way it is releasing the update.

BTW Tesla Motors global fleet of vehicles should exceed 100 000 vehicles milestone soon.

BTW2 Elon Musk quantified sales surge at Model X Founders series first deliveries event for the first time with 49%!
That should be enough to get us well to the end of 2016!
 
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There is a distinct possibility that the immediate or this morning movement will trend down on fears of the AP roll-out. Most people will be freaked out by this development I think and a pull back until things settle may come our way. Pre-Market seems to be trending this way.

When Elon throws out that cars soon will not have steering wheels or pedals it is threatening to most. I don't personally mind that concept but the majority of drivers today would find that on par with taking their guns away!
 
I bought my Model S in March. It was the promise of autopilot that put me over the top. I really like TACC, but there is still lots of room for improvement. For one, it does not adjust the speed down for curves, which can be pretty scary on surface streets. It also does not stop for red lights or stop signs. I believe the speed adjustment for curves will come with 7.0, but traffic signal awareness will come later. In the long run, they should work on driving styles and optimize range. I often find that on surface streets I can get better energy efficiency driving smoothly than using TACC. I am optimistic this refinement will come in time, but it's important that with every release like this, the cars become a better value. This is what drives demand, the willingness to spend hard earned money on a product.


Soon to obtain a 5 star rating for safety will require assisted driving safety features that tesla is now including in its cars.
This has clear economic value and will improve insurance rates. Maybe .
 
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