Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[RobStark]

I'm looking forward to Tesla offering distinct driver styles like Smooth, Sporty, and Total Jerk.

Smooth optimizes driving range and comfort.
Sporty minimizes travel time to destination.
BMW Driver[fixed] maximizes g-force acceleration and deceleration.

* I say that as a former BMW driver.

 

[gene]

How about a "Ricer" mode complete with obnoxious noisy exhaust sounds?

 

[ludicrousspeed]

The autopilot release has caught a lot more attention than I anticipated. Over 1.2M views on one video and thousands more on others. Almost all of the comments are positive and a lot of them read along the lines of "wow that is so cool. makes me want one even more." This plays right into Tesla's strategy: worry about making the product as good as possible, and the customers will come on their own. Very excited to see how quickly Tesla can develop further AP upgrades with the help of 1.5M driving miles per day on the system.

 

[Curt Renz]

It looks like the Jalopnik video is going viral 1.2 million views already since last night.
Teslas Autopilot System Is Creepy And Wonderful - YouTube

I preferred this one and embedded it into my website:

 

[Papafox]

Guys: this is one of those information advantage arbitrage situations that we constantly look for in short term trading. Mark my words: it will take some time for this to sink in with the market and the average investor. To most this will be surprising news. To us it's not news (but very cool to get the nitty gritty details). The autopilot functions themselves, the integration in the car UI and especially the crowdsourcing and 10s of thousands of cars out gathering data every day is HUGE! Just wait until the first analyst puts a value on this.

If TSLA opens up 1% and trades flat the whole day tomorrow; please don't doubt yourselves - this is one of those situations where we have a jump on the market (information and understanding wise)! With TSLA having slid below $220 I was a buyer today (of LEAPs). Good luck all!

Johan, so far the market is supporting your thesis. Thanks for sharing!

 

[Johan]

Johan, so far the market is supporting your thesis. Thanks for sharing!

Just watched some of the videos showing up on YouTube (I can really recommend the one from Dragtimes/Brooks/fiksegts).

This has me very excited. I stand 100% behind my earlier statement: this is the start of something very big. I know a lot of people may have been thinking Elon's been hyping this, it was late etc. etc. But at the end of the day when they write the history of automobiles in the 21st century this will be another milestone, one of several by Tesla in recent years.

 

[Scott Ales]

What the heck is going on with the after hours trades? $216?

I'll never understand why someone dumps for $4.00 less than trades just before and just after.

What am I missing?

 

[AudubonB]

What the heck is going on with the after hours trades? $216?

I'll never understand why someone dumps for $4.00 less than trades just before and just after.

What am I missing?

That was a single, anomalous trade of 100 shares, at 16:29. Trades before and after that have stayed in the $221.30 - $221.60 range.

So far.

 

[Scott Ales]

That was a single, anomalous trade of 100 shares, at 16:29. Trades before and after that have stayed in the $221.30 - $221.60 range.

So far.

Yes, I see that. But I'm interested in understand who would dump like that and for what reason?

 

[Johan]

Yes, I see that. But I'm interested in understand who would dump like that and for what reason?

It's been discussed here before. It's likely when a trade that was done much earlier durin the day gets registred much later, in AH trading. I don't remeber the term used. Late [something]. Late slip?

 

[AudubonB]

That's a better answer than my 'fessing up that it was me...on the buy side. I just gave my granny an offer for her shares she couldn't refuse.....

 

[Curt Renz]

Yes, I see that. But I'm interested in understand who would dump like that and for what reason?

That is normally what is known as an "out trade". The trade was likely first attempted earlier in the day, but there was some discrepancy. That often gets reconciled during after hours, hence the seeming anomaly.

 

[austinEV]

How about a "Ricer" mode complete with obnoxious noisy exhaust sounds?

In all seriousness, I think for minimal cost they could capture sales with this. A big a** bass speaker and a regular speaker near the tail, and possibly a bass speaker pointed inward or otherwise configured as a thing which shakes your car/seat. Normally it would just be off, but a user could configure it to make normal, BMW-ish, racer-ish, mercedes-ish types of engine noise. Hell, you could simulate gear shifting with accompanying tone shifts. Auto makers already artificially tune/augment their engine noises. For people who just have to have the visceral power feeling that comes from the inefficiency/waste of an ICE, just simulate it. It would be amusing to simulate an engine screaming and changing gears have people do ludicrous starts with and without the engine noise. Show a gearhead this "new german supercar" with sounds on, then freak them out by turning it off and saying, kidding it was electric.

Since many jurisdictions are legislating "noisemakers" anyway, just make a good noisemaker and make it a feature. (Disclosure, I would not use such a dumb thing)

 

[Scott Ales]

In all seriousness, I think for minimal cost they could capture sales with this. A big a** bass speaker and a regular speaker near the tail, and possibly a bass speaker pointed inward or otherwise configured as a thing which shakes your car/seat. Normally it would just be off, but a user could configure it to make normal, BMW-ish, racer-ish, mercedes-ish types of engine noise. Hell, you could simulate gear shifting with accompanying tone shifts. Auto makers already artificially tune/augment their engine noises. For people who just have to have the visceral power feeling that comes from the inefficiency/waste of an ICE, just simulate it. It would be amusing to simulate an engine screaming and changing gears have people do ludicrous starts with and without the engine noise. Show a gearhead this "new german supercar" with sounds on, then freak them out by turning it off and saying, kidding it was electric.

Since many jurisdictions are legislating "noisemakers" anyway, just make a good noisemaker and make it a feature. (Disclosure, I would not use such a dumb thing)

The BMW i8 we're driving has engine sound augmented and I find it very cheesy. Can't wait to sell it and get back into a Model S. Going to Orlando Tesla tomorrow at 11:00 am for a test drive in a P90D / Ludicrous with enabled Autopilot.

 

[pGo]

How about a "Ricer" mode complete with obnoxious noisy exhaust sounds?

If Tesla releases an SDK, I am sure there'll be an app for that.

 

[gene]

Evidently no Tesla factory tours are being given during the entire month of December.

"Due to a planned increase in production volume, tours will not be available during the month of December."

 

[Newb]

Folks, this looks like first sigs might get their cars pretty soon.

 

[FluxCap]

I'm seeing alerts of downgrades by Baird and Barclays that just came through but I can't find any more info -- anyone have some?

Edit: this could be robots re-hashing prior downgrade news. I'm not sure.

 

[jkliu47]

Yes, I see that. But I'm interested in understand who would dump like that and for what reason?

Could have been a 'market' trade placed at close - and if that wasn't done online, someone should fire his broker for doing that.

 

[MikeC]

I'm seeing alerts of downgrades by Baird and Barclays that just came through but I can't find any more info -- anyone have some?

Edit: this could be robots re-hashing prior downgrade news. I'm not sure.

I'm going to lose respect for Ben Kallo if Baird makes back-to-back downgrades a week apart on no real news. I think shorts are sensing the sentiment change and are busting out their dirty tricks to try to cover while we're still at 220.