I appreciate this part of the letter, "Our warranty reserves were generally in line with the prior quarter, based on our analysis of projected warranty costs." Implications that whatever issues there are with drive train failures and replacements are not negatively impacting financials. I remain long!
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
That would be awesome :biggrin::biggrin:!Would be good
Pack assembly, not cell production, but still great news!
larmor
Active Member
Ahead of schedule? No, they planned/guided for "summer 2015" deliveries of PowerWall products. They will continue to assemble imported cells built by Panasonic in Japan, but just in a different location (empty space in Gigafactory instead of car factory in CA).
There is no local cell production until late 2016. From the SH letter:
As for the increase in S/X demand. That's only a few weeks. We will see how total demand and cannibalization will play out in 2016 following the expiry of various incentives...
phigment
Member
My TD Web broker doesn't allow after hour trading online. But if I wanted, I could call up the "trading specialists" and put in after hours orders, at a higher commission rate of course.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
This is at best an okay report. Not good. Not bad. Clearly the expectation was for bad, so the stock has jumped after hours. My expectation is that during the call some hard questions will be asked and it will become clear that hardly any Model X's have been delivered; that is not at all clear from the report. I think that's going to trim the gains significantly. And I'm not sure what reaction we're going to get when somebody asks about how much money Tesla is setting aside to cover the crappy quality cars they've got on the road according to CR. And of course since they have crappy quality even on a low volume car, why would anybody think they could produce Model 3 at scale and deliver anything but junk? These issues will be brought up and Tesla needs to have good answers; historically they don't.
More important, if Elon comes across as making lots of promises without delivering on them then the news will be spun negatively very hard. I would not be surprised to see the stock open about even, and no matter how the day ends it won't surprise me. As it stands, this is not a report that screams "we're executing!" Even the gigafactory stuff is all predictions and promises rather than actual deliveries, and thus open to being spun negatively.
I still see the company having a brilliant future, and I'm confident things will come together, but the stock is another matter.
Be careful out there....
More important, if Elon comes across as making lots of promises without delivering on them then the news will be spun negatively very hard. I would not be surprised to see the stock open about even, and no matter how the day ends it won't surprise me. As it stands, this is not a report that screams "we're executing!" Even the gigafactory stuff is all predictions and promises rather than actual deliveries, and thus open to being spun negatively.
I still see the company having a brilliant future, and I'm confident things will come together, but the stock is another matter.
Be careful out there....
Gerasimental
Member
flankspeed8
Member
My old brokerage used to require AH trades to be limit orders and in blocks of 100. That is a barrier for a triple-digit stock.
Scott Ales
Member
As many of you know I went all in just before the MX launch. Since then I have held all positions and patiently waited on the sidelines, fully vested (even grabbed a bit more last week, $10k worth.) So if this holds and grows it will be a monumental turnaround for us! From $160k to $30k and now hopefully back into six figures soon again.
Should sleep well tonight plus we'll have our new Model S by the end of January!
Our 2008 Roadster will be here this week too.
Ahhh...
All things Tesla are great!
Should sleep well tonight plus we'll have our new Model S by the end of January!
Our 2008 Roadster will be here this week too.
Ahhh...
All things Tesla are great!
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
I like that their CPO program flourishes.
I mean even their old and used cars sell like hot cakes.
I mean even their old and used cars sell like hot cakes.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Your quoted section specifically mentioned cell production for Tesla Energy products, that may not rule out vehicle cell production. Not that it matters much either way, just another tiny thread for you to keep grasping on to.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Now you're just bragging.
BetTSLA has some good points, but as I said above I hope Elon has taken feedback and adjusted accordingly with the way he answers questions on the call.
I'm all for the very ambitious internal goals but he might want to be a bit more careful sharing them with the world.
Looking back none of this will matter, only the actual results achieved and the legacy of Tesla. But short term wise it does matter.
sub
Active Member
If my memory is correct (50/50 chance of that) it was stated sometime in the past year that tesla was holding back too much for warranty reserves. Anyone else remember that?
also, I dont think the market cares much that all 50-52k deliveries are Model S and that Model X ramp is pushed back 4-6 weeks. I can spin this as a positive very easily, look at model S demand increase on a 3 year old car. Granted the car hadsbeen improved on drastically.
i do agree that no matter what happens, shorts will try to spin it. Look at tftf, poor guy grasping for anything he can.
The market disagrees. This report completely assuages almost all of the fears of major shareholders going into this evening. And when I say major, I mean that funds large and small will be buying back in for long-term holds on this report, the call tonight, and the analyst upgrades to follow.
The skies are clearing and revealing sweet, sweet revenue, cashflow and margin growth. These are the seeds of very profitable investments.
While we still have to get through the CC and tomorrow's price action I want to congratulate all of you who held firm. I have my core shares and some LEAPS but was holding cash to 'buy in' at what I thought would be in the 185-200 range. I have a few protective puts that may evaporate. If they do, I will still be ahead with the stock/LEAPS...BUT, not as good as the many of you who held firm.....................WELL DONE!:wink:
Yes, I felt no mention of windshield issues was huge. Together with bringing 2nd row seats in-house, the great concern about ramping up Model X should dissipate.
Scott Ales
Member
Now you're just bragging.
BetTSLA has some good points, but as I said above I hope Elon has taken feedback and adjusted accordingly with the way he answers questions on the call.
I'm all for the very ambitious internal goals but he might want to be a bit more careful sharing them with the world.
Looking back none of this will matter, only the actual results achieved and the legacy of Tesla. But short term wise it does matter.
I'm actually surprised I was able to convince my wife to stick it out. While I am and always have been a bull, the short term challenges can be gut wrenching as we all know. I also had committed to myself if it dropped out of sight I would double down around $150.
This is a very big position for us, I have never invested this much of our savings in a large cap company, EVER. A friend asked me why I am so bent out of shape about Tesla recently. I replied, "I have never seen another large cap company with such an amazing mission, how can I not support it?"
We will see when EV cells are rolling off the Nevada production line (I don't see the urgent need since there is no Model3 coming soon). The stationary cells would be needed earlier since Tesla once announced PowerWall sales for "summer 2015".
The big topics remain cash burn in coming quarters and missing earlier targets (Tesla will only barely reach the lowered 50-52k units in 2015). Expect a major capital raise as long as the stock is getting pumped even after another dismal quarter...what for example happened to being cash-flow positive by Q1 2016?
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Sorry, but initial Tesla Energy products were slated to be produced in California. Just like the powerpacks and building/utility-grade power systems they've been building in small/pilot numbers for the past couple years.
This is indeed new news and head of schedule. Previously, Tesla Energy products were slated to begin Gigafactory production in Q1 2016, and before that it was slated to begin several quarters after that time.
I apologize for your impending loss if you've continued to short on this ER
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