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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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The Q3 shareholder letter proves model S demand issue is wrong. I'm more than happy to buy loads of shares between 220-223 in AH. Even I miss the bottom, but I feel a lot more comfortable buying in 22x instead of 20x. I'm planing to add call position too once IV crushed tomorrow. Of course my PUT position will take hit tomorrow, and I'll manage to unload them before IV crush.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Hmmm up 11% AH. I doubt the CC will be able to improve on that! Perhaps they should just cancel it 
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
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The trick is timing the point at which people start taking profits and sell some calls for a nice little profit on a small pull back before tsla starts moving upwards at a steady slow pace.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
Tesla is always late.
But even if you are right every time when you call them out on their delays, you are missing the larger point. They do not back down from their main goals. They always achieve them, and in many ways exceed them, just consistently later than originally announced. So what? As long as they don't go bankrupt, that's all that is needed in the long run for people who share your evaluation to lose money while consistently being right, and for the rest of us to make money while ignoring reality (where by "right", I mean "wrong", and by "ignoring" I mean "understanding").
Agree. I started buying only after glancing through the first few lines of shareholder letter. It resolve most of my worries towards ER.
I'm sorry but what part of "we're going to spend staggering amounts of money" do you not understand? They mentioned cash-flow projections on the call previously, they will likely do the same today.
The straws that you are clutching to are not just short, they are imaginary.
I don't care about daily stock gyrations (regular trading or AH) in my long-term positions. SCTY went down like crazy and now TSLA up like crazy following the latest reports - both after dismal quarters.
The fact remains that Tesla is burning a lot of cash and can only barely make the lowered guidance of 50k or so cars for 2015.
You're extremely salty.
BOTTOM LINE: Tesla will meet its goal of of increasing sales 50% YOY and is highly confident of growing AT LEAST an additional 66% over the next year.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
They are not burning cash. They are investing. The question is are they investing wisely or foolishly? This is where the fundamental difference in viewpoint is. This is the only thing worth debating. Anything else follows this stance.
The only reason the short vs. long view are so far apart and vehemently opposed when it comes to TSLA is their extremely aggressive growth trajectory, with the capital deployment that goes with it makes for the whole story to be either extremely promising or extremely ridiculous, all based on your outlook.
Amazon has also been burning lots of cash for the majority of its existence. It's not the only measure of success, and in fact cash burn is the very reason the stock market exists--to generate cash. I'm not sure why investors forget this fact sometimes.
The cash burn is only a problem if it's unanticipated and/or gets no results. Tesla is far above positive year over year and month over month growth, and they've been never once stated they'll be consistently cashflow positive for many years to come.
Projections of 50-52k suggest that they are actually more confident than I had anticipated - 50k should hopefully be a hard floor at this point.
LargeHamCollider
Battery cells != scalable
Tftf what is your long term strategy? Do you expect Tesla to go bankrupt in the next 5 years? At what price would you stop shorting?
btw I'm sitting on a boatload of TSLA :biggrin: and feeling jolly good about it.
btw I'm sitting on a boatload of TSLA :biggrin: and feeling jolly good about it.
It's nice seeing our growing club of followers on here, over 250 people browsing this thread actively now...I remember when 100 seemed like a lot.
this earnings report makes the writing on the wall ever more clear for shorts that another game of musical chairs is drawing near for them. Those that refuse to play willbe left with large paper losses hoping that some competition comes in and brings the stock back down below 200 again one day which I doubt will ever happen (just as once we went from 40 to 100+ A few years back we never went below 50 again like many shorts were hoping).
this earnings report makes the writing on the wall ever more clear for shorts that another game of musical chairs is drawing near for them. Those that refuse to play willbe left with large paper losses hoping that some competition comes in and brings the stock back down below 200 again one day which I doubt will ever happen (just as once we went from 40 to 100+ A few years back we never went below 50 again like many shorts were hoping).
jesselivenomore
Member
Tesla is "burning" a lot of cash today at 230. Tesla was "burning" a lot of cash at 40. And Tesla will be "burning" a lot of cash at 500. Thats what happens with a business growing as fast as Tesla. But, HANG IN THERE!
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