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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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I think what he said like last year that he sees potential demand for S & X combined around 100k. They never guided for 100k production for 2016 as far as I recall.
tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
Indeed, if the new CFO implements google-style delegated democracy, she gets to ask questions on my behalf.
http://www.tdcommons.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1092&context=dpubs_series
Horses are fully autonomous actually.. for the known route to the owner's ranch.
I love that "we generate value by doing hard things, not by outsourcing hard things to others"
IOW, "are you so focused on "street values" (obvious contradiction in terms) (a/k/a stupid) that you can't see what we are doing and how valuable that is? "
IOW, "are you so focused on "street values" (obvious contradiction in terms) (a/k/a stupid) that you can't see what we are doing and how valuable that is? "
Scott Ales
Member
hockeythug
Active Member
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
thanks AIMc, et al. Yes, I held on with my shares. It was scary this time because sediment was so negative.
I really tried hard going into this call to emphasize how Tesla could get to its Q4 guidance. I'm thrilled they reaffirmed solid guidance. As elon said, it isn't as much of a stretch as it seems to many folks
congrats to all the longs
chickensevil
Active Member
Somewhat, yes. But I think it has been stated before and bares repeating that there is a significant chunk of the market that is moving into Tesla from other categories. So they are pulling away from largely lower cost (and lower GM by nature) vehicles to come into Tesla. We will see if this holds true with the release of the Model 3 since I think a lot of this is caused by them not having a cheaper option... if anything risks cannibalization it is going to be the release of the Model 3 (not the X as people have been worried about).
jesselivenomore
Member
The problem with being careful when price and sentiment are low is that if you were careful and waited until after ER to buy, TSLA can still easily give back its gains now without any fundamental changes. Or maybe it doesn't look back and squeezes the shorts. Its anyone's guess and all noise from here.
TSLA has been trading between 180 and 280 for almost 2 years now. It won't break 300 until cash flow positive and showing a clear path to model 3. That will be the major squeeze for the shorts to get it through 300 and towards 500+, like the move we had in 2013. And it won't break 180 unless it shows significant hurdles to achieving the above.
With that in mind, when TSLA trades towards 200 like recently, that is the time to get greedy, unless you foresee said hurdles. And when TSLA trades towards 280, that is the time to be careful, unless we are close to cash flow positive.
Everything in between in noise.
+1 I think we get close. Nice short squeeze this week! Analyst downgrades/updates all based on missing year end guidance.
That the X will be delayed even longer, S will not have enough demand, will need capital raise etc. Elon put an end to all of that!!
Tesla's demand around the world just keeps growing. Analysts have reservations about Energy, will be pleasantly surprised.
Elon also has a few cards up his sleeve for next year.
I am going to Baron conference Friday in NY, and Elon is the surprise "electrifying CEO" guest speaker. The venue is sold out and will
be in two buildings. Ron Baron has 250m in tesla and has said he will make 10 times his money within 10 years. All the people there are high net worth individuals so they will be persuaded to buy in. I want to see ATH by end of year!
chickensevil
Active Member
If it makes you feel better I was still seeing how they could easily hit 50k+. What I am hoping is that they were sticking with their "win should feel like a win" concept and we might get lucky and hit +52k to end out the year. It looks like they are planning to dump out the pipeline by a decent amount, which explains the move to only focusing on NA markets now to hit the end of the year (estimates for most others have moved on to January already that I can tell. I think it is just NA markets that are still December). I think they want a mad rush out the door to get as much delivered as possible. Which is interesting also because it indicates one of two things:
1: They might be looking to go positive on cash in Q4 still (This would be *massive* if so, and would be a shocker of a surprise... dumping out your finished goods is a crappy way to do it, but I would suspect that not having your finished goods weighing you down would be a nice temporary shot in the arm)
2: The more likely implication is them being capable of going cash positive in Q1 *without* needing to do something crazy to hit it (This is the more stable method and really what I would love to see more than option 1, since that wouldn't actually feel like a win to me if they just go right back deep into the red on Q1... not because I would be worried about anything, but because you know that would be all that people would harp on is how they hit cash flow positive by "cheating" the numbers... I can see it now...)
Or... the best option...
3: Cash flow positive in both Q4 AND Q1!!! Q4 they get there by "cheating" and dumping out all their finished goods, pipelines go dry and January practically falls off the map as they rebuild out numbers for other regions, but then it doesn't matter, because they are spending such a little amount of cash over Q1 and building such a large number of cars at that point (1600/wk is the bottom number here) that it just doesn't matter and they have a nice cash flow then too.
I hope I am not being too pie in the sky here. I know even Q1 cash flow positive wasn't a promise. But it sure would shake off all the shorts good (get a short trap in Q4 because they think Elon is fooling everyone so they double down even as the price goes up, only to be totally crushed when they post 2Qs in a row of cash flows!) If this happens, I would strongly expect some kind of cash raise shortly after the Q1 results simply because the shareprice would be unreal at that point, and they could raise whatever they wanted with very minimal share dilution.
So, you heard it here first, if we go cash flow positive for Q4... look out... (Note: I am not trading on this thought... as I am still holding on to the wait for Q1 and see what happens game... but I am tentatively excited at the prospects).
ludicrousspeed
Member
Wow sentiment in this thread change very quickly lol. $250 tomorrow and ATH by year's end are definitely on the optimistic side, but I definitely think there's a series of positive events in the first half of 2016 that will get TSLA to completely new heights.
On a side note: I loved how confident Elon sounded on this call, completely different tone from the Q2 call. Just so much conviction when talking about competitors not being anywhere near Tesla and how owning self-driving cars will be like riding a horse. Gotta love it.
On a side note: I loved how confident Elon sounded on this call, completely different tone from the Q2 call. Just so much conviction when talking about competitors not being anywhere near Tesla and how owning self-driving cars will be like riding a horse. Gotta love it.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Overall a very good quarter for the company, and major reassurance on guidance and Model X ramp. I didn't predict this at all. That's why I don't trade :tongue:
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