Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[chickensevil]

so... 80k guidance roughly?

Production though, not deliveries.

 

[Scott Ales]

Letter said they're confident in 1600-1800/week combined S+X.

Let's say 1600 in Q1, 1700 in Q2 and Q3 and 1800 in Q4. That's an average of 1700/week, for 50 weeks, makes for 85k in 2016 (napkin math).

The CPO program will catapult with Model X deliveries. I'm sure they will take a large number of Model S cars during this next year.

 

[Johan]

But the question implied that all owners might have to pay $2,500 NOW. I can't believe people following this company didn't know the $2,500 was for the option package from over a year ago. Maybe I am being too harsh but it seemed odd to me.

Yeah. Painfully embarrassing question. There are a thousand more important and interesting things to ask. He might as we have asked how much the pano roof is, or something.

 

[chickensevil]

Yeah. Painfully embarrassing question. There are a thousand more important and interesting things to ask. He might as we have asked how much the pano roof is, or something.

Although we did find out that almost everyone has been taking the option upfront. Which is likely good news since they have said that they would eat a loss if people didn't take the option since they put the hardware in the car anyway. Just the same as they technically would eat a loss if people didn't take the supercharging... this makes me wonder if at some point they just give it away "for free" much like they have made supercharging standard... hrmmmm interesting to think about.

 

[ludicrousspeed]

Production though, not deliveries.

From the shareholder letter: "Looking ahead, we still remain highly confident ofaverage production and deliveries of 1,600 to 1,800 vehicles per week for Model S and Model X combined during 2016"

 

[Lessmog]

Sharp barb for CARB from Elon: If we cant sell zev, regulation is not enough.

 

[anon]

"We are very happy with the quality of the drive units". They have been of "excellent" quality in recent months. Originally aimed at 200,000 mile durability, now 1 million miles.

 

[Scott Ales]

Hah!

There's the One Million mile drive unit comment!

What the heck will ICE manufacturers do with that?

 

[joefee]

Rub it in on my obsolete Sig P85 drive unit !

 

[anon]

Will exceed 30% gross margin on S/X within 18 months, hopefully sooner.

 

[Johan]

Andrea asking spot on questions, as usual.

I too wondered if and how they could improve even more on gross margin. "30% GM on S/X line in 18 months". Nice. Good call those who have been drawing parallels to Apple's margins.

 

[Johan]

Rub it in on my obsolete Sig P85 drive unit !

They didn't rub in enough grease, apparently.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Like Crazy Eddie used to say, the after-market volume is "INSANE!"

 

[tinm]

Hmm, 80-85K cars in 2016 now?

I guess the notion of 100k cars in 2016 is kaput. Didn't Elon say 100k run-rate leading into 2016 a while back in a conf call?

 

[Scott Ales]

LOL!!

Non-Autonomous cars will be like driving a horse!

 

[anon]

They didn't rub in enough grease, apparently.

That was just one batch mostly delivered to Norway...I think he is covering up some other problems here...but hopefully problems really are resolved.

 

[Lessmog]

within 20-30 years, non-autonomous cars will be rare and like horses, owned for emotional reasons :biggrin:

 

[anon]

Hmm, 80-85K cars in 2016 now?

I guess the notion of 100k cars in 2016 is kaput. Didn't Elon say 100k run-rate leading into 2016 a while back in a conf call?

They already guided down for 2016 in Q2 ER, 100k was before that.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Isn't it frustrating when Andrea gets less time than some of those tools before. Why can't they have her as the first caller? (I know, I know, probably random call order...)

 

[CatB]

Rub it in on my obsolete Sig P85 drive unit !

Well, as long as our "classic" DUs go out in the first 8 years (unlimited miles, right?), we'll get new ones, right?