Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[BornToFly]

Big smile on my face tonight! My wife was giving me a hard time for buying another 1,000+ shares the last few weeks, including the 200 I added yesterday. I still have some cash in the account I was going to use if it went down after ER. I will have to wait for another dip to try to buy more....

 

[Curt Renz]

The big topics remain cash burn in coming quarters and missing earlier targets (Tesla will only barely reach the lowered 50-52k units in 2015). Expect a major capital raise as long as the stock is getting pumped even after another dismal quarter...what for example happened to being cash-flow positive by Q1 2016?

Which is that you want? More rapid production, which requires spending? Or slower production, to cut expenses?

What you call a cash burn is investment in the future by a young company doing what is necessary to disrupt two huge established industries: cars and energy. The investment banks understand this. They believe in Tesla and are helping it to raise the capital needed to meet its goals. The shares are priced as high as they are because the company is investing in its future, not because it is good at cutting expenses. Quarterly stock valuation methods learned in college apply to established companies in stable industries. They're not so good at evaluating innovative young companies that are disrupting capital intensive industries.

Interestingly it's a young cohort called millennials who seem to understand this better than their elders. They are the ones who will be buying Tesla Model 3's, then investing in TSLA shares and pushing their prices even higher.

 

[chickensevil]

We will see when EV cells are rolling off the Nevada production line (I don't see the urgent need since there is no Model3 coming soon). The stationary cells would be needed earlier since Tesla once announced PowerWall sales for "summer 2015".

The big topics remain cash burn in coming quarters and missing earlier targets (Tesla will only barely reach the lowered 50-52k units in 2015). Expect a major capital raise as long as the stock is getting pumped even after another dismal quarter...what for example happened to being cash-flow positive by Q1 2016?

Are you happy? They reaffirmed that their goal was cash flow positive in Q1 on the CC. (Of course you aren't but oh well.)

 

[aznt1217]

Biggest news for me is the Gigafactory and how much they pulled it forward. That's incredible.

Anyway, great call overall though. The Morgan Stanley questions were pretty intense. To tftf, sorry if you are mad?

 

[RyanT]

Wider than expected loss. This is weak price action. I see it red by tomorrow am, especially after the conference call gets going.

Best quote of the night..

 

[Causalien]

Up $45 per "failed" straddle on my 1 month investment. Happy.
Thank you tftf for dishing it out. Because of you, we know what the "Win" condition needs to be for Gigafactory. Producing cells by 2017, now looks like easy mode.

 

[jhm]

About 1 million AP hardware miles per day. Given that the policy reported accident rate in the US is 4.1 per million miles. Thus, just to be on par with other vehicles, there should be about 4 reported accidents per day in AP Tesla cars. The fact that Tesla has no knowledge of any accident where AP was at fault is phenomenal. If there was say a 1 per million mile risk, we would have seen half a dozen or so by now.

 

[Drax7]

We will see when EV cells are rolling off the Nevada production line (I don't see the urgent need since there is no Model3 coming soon). The stationary cells would be needed earlier since Tesla once announced PowerWall sales for "summer 2015".

The big topics remain cash burn in coming quarters and missing earlier targets (Tesla will only barely reach the lowered 50-52k units in 2015). Expect a major capital raise as long as the stock is getting pumped even after another dismal quarter...what for example happened to being cash-flow positive by Q1 2016?

please be respectful of tftf, he is attempting to single handily beat tesla,
an ensemle of the smartest people around, lead
by one of the most capable of men around. Excuse him if his desire to
dethrone Elon is very personal and overrides his better judgement .

Some me men rise by sin, others by virtue fall, Shakespeare

 

[jhm]

LOL!!

Non-Autonomous cars will be like driving a horse!

Horses are more autonomous than any car will ever be.

 

[RobStark]

Automotive legend Bob Lutz says hiring away VP of Finance of the second most valuable company on Earth to be your CFO is a sign of a company in trouble.

 

[ggies07]

Interestingly it's a young cohort called millennials who seem to understand this better than their elders. They are the ones who will be buying Tesla Model 3's, then investing in TSLA shares and pushing their prices even higher.

Yesir! Although this millennial did it the other way around - bought shares a long time ago and waiting to afford a car from Tesla.

 

[EarlyAdopter]

I love that "we generate value by doing hard things, not by outsourcing hard things to others"
IOW, "are you so focused on "street values" (obvious contradiction in terms) (a/k/a stupid) that you can't see what we are doing and how valuable that is? "

I heard that as a dig at GM for outsourcing the battery and drivetrain on the Bolt to LG.

 

[dc_h]

Sad. So married to his belief in Tesla imminent failure, he can't see anything positive. Reminds me of the astronauts hating SpaceX as a fraud and not believing Elon really cared about helping reboot America's space program. Hiring great talent is never a sign of weakness. The confidence to surround yourself with excellence is the most important indicator of future success.

Automotive legend Bob Lutz says hiring away VP of Finance of the second most valuable company on Earth to be your CFO is a sign of a company in trouble.

 

[dakh]

The whole thing cracks me up. So we went to 280 on no news, then back to under 210 on speculation of upcoming bad news, and now what, 230 on confirmation of no bad news. All the while there were no real news.

At least looks like I get to recoup some of the bloodbath I've taken on a SCTY gamble. Now the question is, put that into SCTY or sit on cash or get more TSLA.

 

[RyanT]

The whole thing cracks me up. So we went to 280 on no news, then back to under 210 on speculation of upcoming bad news, and now what, 230 on confirmation of no bad news. All the while there were no real news.

At least looks like I get to recoup some of the bloodbath I've taken on a SCTY gamble. Now the question is, put that into SCTY or sit on cash or get more TSLA.

I was thinking about taking money out of scty and putting into tsla. My hypothesis is tsla may get some momentum from this. It'd hurt to sell scty shares at this price though.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Hit pieces on SeekingAlpha appearing. What good news? Tesla is doomed! Paulo Santos (http://seekingalpha.com/article/3640986-notes-on-the-tesla-q3-2015-earnings-report). Anton Wahlman (http://seekingalpha.com/article/3641306-tesla-manages-to-lose-19810-per-car-sold).

 

[dmckinstry]

Automotive legend Bob Lutz says hiring away VP of Finance of the second most valuable company on Earth to be your CFO is a sign of a company in trouble.

The company from which he was hired? i.e, the second most valuable company is in trouble?

 

[hockeythug]

The company from which he was hired? i.e, the second most valuable company is in trouble?

He is saying that Tesla is in trouble and needed to bring in a ringer at CFO to apparently help save them.

 

[esk8mw]

You know a few eager shorts were champing at the bit to declare victory in this thread.

Now? Crickets and salt.

 

[chickensevil]

About 1 million AP hardware miles per day. Given that the policy reported accident rate in the US is 4.1 per million miles. Thus, just to be on par with other vehicles, there should be about 4 reported accidents per day in AP Tesla cars. The fact that Tesla has no knowledge of any accident where AP was at fault is phenomenal. If there was say a 1 per million mile risk, we would have seen half a dozen or so by now.

Is that really the number? Accidents per million? I know deaths per billion is like 1-2 but didn't realize accidents in general were so low (or high... Depending on how you read that). Although just because they are getting 1 million miles of driving a day, doesn't mean that you are getting a million in cruise control/TACC/autosteer mode. Still even if it is only a quarter of that a day there should have been multiple accidents reported by now right? Really lucky that hasn't happened... Or at least been reported...

Automotive legend Bob Lutz says hiring away VP of Finance of the second most valuable company on Earth to be your CFO is a sign of a company in trouble.

With Elon's relationship with the Google founders you better believe he didn't take their VP without talking with them first. Talent is talent, but I could see this being the product of two vastly different conversations since you KNOW he didn't poach the guy but instead got their blessing.

Convo 1: Elon asked for help and thus was the only help they could provide. Give up their Finance guy that has been helping to keep Google raking in the profits.
Convo 2: Hey I heard you were looking for a CFO, how about ours? He is totally into Tesla and we want to help... Maybe you won't need to crash on our couch anymore and can finally afford your own place!

I dunno, not complaining either way. But Bob's comments could be plausible... That's all I'm saying. But it is Bob Lutz... So even if he is right, he is wrong... Lol.