People used to post in-depth analysis that represented hours of work. Then someone else would post their analysis that represented hours of work. No one is doing the homework anymore. (I am part of the problem I admit)
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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People used to post in-depth analysis that represented hours of work. Then someone else would post their analysis that represented hours of work. No one is doing the homework anymore. (I am part of the problem I admit)
Cramer on CNBC denigrates Elon Musk with such gusto, and calls Elon an impresario
at best, and the stock is purely a cult thing.
The more the media hates tesla, the better the investment ,
It's practically a precondition for success say
the motley fools about rule breakers.
I do worry about he AUtomatic pilot getting misused
and causing an accident , which the media then will blow
up like the battery fires in the past.
at best, and the stock is purely a cult thing.
The more the media hates tesla, the better the investment ,
It's practically a precondition for success say
the motley fools about rule breakers.
I do worry about he AUtomatic pilot getting misused
and causing an accident , which the media then will blow
up like the battery fires in the past.
sub
Active Member
I guess we can all only blame ourselves. I don't have the expertise that some past and current forum members have that post in this thread so I'm more of a spectator and contribute to the banter when times are slow. This thread is more for entertainment value for me, I did not agree with the sentiment around here the past 1-2 months and I think I made that clear.
Good news is I doubt we see much of the shorts around here for a while, they will be lurking but won't speak up much until the next doom and gloom cycle when they will show up again gloating and trying to manipulate.
Most of the short cases I've read since the CC yesterday is clearly manipulation by numbers (losing money per car, GM down etc) and/or the conspiracy theory that everyone at Tesla is a liar. The shorts do all the analysis for us, when I see one credible short thesis I'll rethink my bullish position but I haven't seen one yet in 3 years.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
One problem is that we have less source data. Back in 2013, people here were able to use VINs to estimate delivery numbers. Today, the VINs are randomized, and Tesla has also been secretive about initial Model X deliveries beyond the first 6 Founder's Series vehicles. On top of that, Tesla Energy products and CPO Model S make the predictions even more difficult.
At this point, all I can do each quarter is look at the financials and read what customers are saying. Basically, I want to know if Tesla has the capital to sustain its operations and expansion plans, and whether they are delivering product that customers find exceptional. So far, the answer to both is in the affirmative.
*maybe*. Some media will try to smear TM with an AP accident. But there is a slight distinction. With the battery question TM was leading the way with large pack vehicles, and alone with the implementation of packs with small cells. So keeping an eye on the safety record of Model S' was at least a valid concern, even if the coverage was skewed and one-sided given that they did not explain the fire risk of ICE's as well.
With AP driving, I think the media and public are capable and willing to take any AP accident and consider it as the broader conversation about the coming implementation of autonomy from ALL makers. Everyone, including high-profile Google, is planning on autonomy. Also, the other automakers won't feel like piling on since they must appreciate Tesla going first. If you are hurrying to release your own version of lane keeping autopilot, there is no incentive to smear TM if/when there are incidents.
TL;DR I expect AP accident coverage to be somewhat fair and not anti Tesla hysteria.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Looks like some of these analysts with price targets over $300 are talking down the stock. This is the classic head-fake move. Buys their clients time to reposition before the next leg up. Wall-street 101.
Am am I cynical? I guess so. After all, they make movies about wall-street antics.
Someone will mention about the Chinese Wall between the Analyst side and the investment Banker side... Riiiight. Not many will defend it and for good reason
Am am I cynical? I guess so. After all, they make movies about wall-street antics.
Someone will mention about the Chinese Wall between the Analyst side and the investment Banker side... Riiiight. Not many will defend it and for good reason
Don't quite buy this view, the ceo of mobileye says in the conference call that tesla is very aggressive,
and that the systems are being stretched . Their present chip is not quite ready for AP.
McMuggets
Member
Just wondering, did anyone else notice on page 3 of the recent shareholder letter they said EPS of $(0.58)/share included the unrealized "loss" due to foreign currency cash reserves held in other countries? That equated to $(0.12)/share. That means reality is Tesla did a huge beat of $(0.46)/share from operations only. It's because they are accounting for the USD strength, but as they've stated it is unrealized and thus fluctuating. I only see this as being good, since it has nothing to do with fundamentals of the company and everything to do with world currency fluctuations. Forex isn't my game, but does anyone know what the projections are for USD strength over the next year or so? Given the recent strong rally, I can't see the USD making any gigantic jumps up further.
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/261108236x0x858516/F50A9FAF-BA73-4263-8E16-DE1FAC0BABDF/Q3_15_Shareholder_Letter.pdf
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/261108236x0x858516/F50A9FAF-BA73-4263-8E16-DE1FAC0BABDF/Q3_15_Shareholder_Letter.pdf
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Remember only very quick changes in exchange rates will affect Tesla like this, since over time they'll just adjust pricing.
Also remember that for now, where they're buying battery cells in Yen from Panasonic in Japan there's some hedging there.
But all in all, as a net exporter, a weak dollar would be better.
Scott Ales
Member
You can bet if they had an increase from Forex the shorts would be complaining it was not to their credit. And why does it seem every time I'm enjoying a Tesla up day Janet Yeller (sp on purpose) starts the rate hike talks! I am so sick of their commentary on what they might do some day. Get over it and just jack it up woman!
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Close to $2B in dollar volume today, 2nd only to Apple, 1st for those in the green. Anyone know the largest single day dollar and share volume to date?
Largest volume seems to be the first day after the first earnings where they reported their first profit (i.e. when it all started going bananas).
Not sure about largest single day dollar - may have been when CR rated it 99/100 (looks like sometime in February 2013).
mmd
Active Member
Only last month on Oct 20th, the volume was $14.9 M shares (SP down $14 from $228) on the CR report of less than average reliability. Today's volume is ~$10M. What was the SP in February 2013? Looks like CR has been a big factor for Tesla.
Sold my trading shares @230. The rally seems to have stalled. Outside this forum, most of the news articles are negative. Wider than expected loss, missed revenue, reiterated lower end of previous guidance, cash burn, etc. etc. And then there is the piece from Cramer. I'm not sure how long this rally lasts, or if we see 250 without further catalysts.
Scott Ales
Member
It started late last night. I was watching Google and the titles basically tell it all. You don't even need to read the articles, it's just a click through grab bag in this day and age. What ever you can say in a title to get anyone to click on it. News as it was in the mid-last century is completely gone. Where there was an objection presentation. You would think someone could create a mainstream news outlet without all the bias. I guess that is a very unrealistic thought. I was really surprised things held up all day based on the garbage being said last night and today. Oh well, wait in the wings for Q4 or anything in between.
doggusfluffy
Closed
I'm also a spectator due to lack of expertise to contribute and now finally funds. It's increasingly difficult to gauge how the sentiment in the media or the wider investing community versus the wealth of information and commentary over this entire board. I think the VW scandal is the perfect example of a story apparently dragging down TSLA even though in reality it was at worst an opportunity for increasing market share and favorable technology comparisons to TDI as well as obviously the corporate culture that allowed it to happen for apparently so many years. Imagine if Tesla had a scandal on par with emissions cheating as opposed to how they calculate HP or include gas savings into the price and market it. I personally think the integrity of Tesla management is reflected in their mission as well as their past performance yet it's repeatedly been the easiest bear scare tactic that Billionaire Elon is covering up something with a 3 card monty show. So since we have less source data as anticitizen13.7 mentioned there is less to do in this thread other than re-assure each other these stories are false while the information still takes it's toll on the stock for extended periods with quarterly corrections coming from the company indirectly in these earnings reports. I think we mostly try to guess when the good news we generally see from Tesla will leak out to the wider public and comment on the current trends here...but I always enjoy this thread.
I'm not even sure this is the end of a doom and gloom cycle if you compare what is happening to Solarcity along with the Gigafactory and stationary progress from Tesla energy. Didn't you hear that solar is doomed without the ITC because no one will be using electricity unless it comes from an aging monopolistic utility they already know and trust?
Be sure to check out more of my award winning and proven portfolio performance inspired commentary in the ST thread! Or to quote the amazing screenwriter from the future Fry: "Well, it took an hour to write. I thought it would take an hour to read." :wink:
The repricing of TSLA given last night's information has only paused given the inevitable baseless clickbait FUD. It takes a while to let the dust settle and for even sophisticated investors to digest information on such a groundbreaking company. The Stifel analyst, who is paid very well and has a large staff, did not even understand that the onboard sensors meant that autopilot could be enabled with a simple over-the-air firmware flash using the car's permanent GSM internet connection. When professional analysts don't even fully comprehend the products of the company they cover, you know there is still room for dedicated investors to get an edge. Not as big as the room we had in 2013 and 2014, but still an edge.
I had been underpricing TSLA based on perceived revenue, cashflow, margin and operational problems. Yesterday, I realized that ALL of those assumptions are false. It is clear that management buckled down after feature creep cost them dearly on Model X timeline, and have redoubled their efforts to get lean and efficient in making these world-class machines. This company itself is a profit-making machine that will continue to deliver value to shareholders, and savvy investors will continue to buy in over the coming days and weeks in anticipation of a glorious 2016.
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Electrifying
Member
Huge volume gap up today near flattening and up-turning 50 and 200 day moving average. Holding core stock position and dozens of calls between $220 and $350 strike prices expiring Nov to March. Go big or go home.
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