Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[esk8mw]

People who ordered in late October reporting new January delivery timeframes (including someone in CA): Just saw delivery estimate go from Nov to Jan!

I think the website still says late December for new orders as per vgrin's wait times thread, so not sure what this implies. Pushing out some Model S to ramp up Model X?

Can only be good news, imo. Either they are sold out for 2015 already even with the huge s ramp or they are ramping x...or both. I don't see any evidence of s production issues. Mine is due here in a couple weeks and I ordered October 17, and my obsessive checking of production schedules for other recent buyers indicates that things appear to be moving along as intended. I think the referral program probably drove a ton of orders at the end of October.

One thing is for sure, I'm going to be loading up on calls during the next dip and in advance of q4 earnings, like I did for q3. I think the next earnings call will be loaded with goodies. I hope expectations can be kept sane in the near term so a win can feel like a win.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Gotta be a mistake.

I believe it is. The signature for this TMC member indicates that he/she confirmed his/her order on November 4th, and was in production on November 16th. If his/her original projection was that delivery to Florence, KY should happen in November, it was most likely erroneous.

 

[esk8mw]

I believe it is. The signature for this TMC member indicates that he confirmed his order on November 4th, and was in production on November 16th. If his original projection was that delivery to Florence, KY should happen in November, it was most likely erroneous.

Maybe I got a little carried away, then. Still going to continue to dump cash into TSLA at every dip.

 

[Scott Ales]

Here is a concept that occurred to me when considering the key employee loss situation.

Elon began and has maintained all along that he wants to inspire / drive others to compete. As we all has commented and discussed before, releasing the patents with conditions is an attempt to further that ambition. If properly executed this validates the Tesla mission and moves the needle faster in his direction.

Is it at all possible that his strategy is similar on the talent side? Selectively dispatching key talent here and there to support and encourage the creation of competitors to help them along? This potential concept would address the somewhat consistent departure of good people to other companies. But possibly not the "Best" people. I understand there is a strong component within his management style that does not tolerate a work ethic or performance which is less than his own. That is a common thread for many significant leaders of our time. But you have to admit, by infecting people with the Tesla virus then sending them into the badlands there is the greater possibility it will further his goal. Not to mention provide him with inside information as to the talent moving forward as any said company sees success or for that matter, failure!

Normally I would not get this deep into unknown theories. But with EM, it's really not possible to think too far outside the box.

Cheers.

- - - Updated - - -

I strongly recommend to read this article. Somehow, my take having read it vs just before, is much different than I would have expected. It left me confident that mainstream auto manufacturers have a design / build process gap which is widening so quickly they simply will not catch up. They cannot. In fact, there is a distinct possibility that Tesla is well into the challenge of meeting the new methods being executed to bring vehicles to market. But that is 5-7 years from being a real threat I feel.

These are exciting times my friends!

Inside Faraday Future, the secretive car company chasing Tesla | The Verge

 

[Drax7]

Elon is generous but not naive .

 

[Scott Ales]

Elon is generous but not naive .

I agree, my suggestion is that they are very calculated and planned departures to certain companies. The opposite of being naive.

 

[Krugerrand]

This troubles me in a way. It's another data point to something I've heard elsewhere. I was told by an ex-Tesla engineer that left last year after being driven crazy by his boss, that after he left, Elon fired the boss, and all the management up that line to Elon, and the replacement for this engineer was told to report directly to Elon.

What's going on at Tesla?

If I remember correctly, this is not the first time he's tweeted about AP engineers/programmers/whathaveyou. Secondly, he has almost 3M followers, all of whom have family and friends. What an absolutely perfect way to get the word.

 

[Blip]

Why does every move made by TM / Musk have to be part of some big brilliant plan? I do not get that part
...

 

[Krugerrand]

Why does every move made by TM / Musk have to be part of some big brilliant plan? I do not get that part
...

...because to date pretty much every move has been part of *the* big, brilliant plan...

 

[Scott Ales]

...because to date pretty much every move has been part of *the* big, brilliant plan...

Ditto

 

[phigment]

Wow... this stock is really unpredictable. Market up, TSLA down (woops.. by down I mean from start of day... still in the green today). I don't really see much negative news. The only thing that is questionable is the "super high priority autonomous " tweet last night.

What to make of that?

It could be (pure speculation):
1) GREAT NEWS: It may mean that everything is looking great: Model X problems all done, Model S sales are booming, Gigafactory and model 3 ahead of schedule and they now have some spare cycles to focus on something else.

2) TERRIBLE NEWS: They are far behind in the AI software, realized that their competitors are ahead and need as much help as possible.

 

[austinEV]

Wow... this stock is really unpredictable. Market up, TSLA down (woops.. by down I mean from start of day... still in the green today). I don't really see much negative news. The only thing that is questionable is the "super high priority autonomous " tweet last night.

What to make of that?

It could be (pure speculation):
1) GREAT NEWS: It may mean that everything is looking great: Model X problems all done, Model S sales are booming, Gigafactory and model 3 ahead of schedule and they now have some spare cycles to focus on something else.

2) TERRIBLE NEWS: They are far behind in the AI software, realized that their competitors are ahead and need as much help as possible.

Uh, 2 hours of stock movement neither confirms nor denies any theory you want to put out there.

 

[electracity]

@elonmusk: Ramping up the Autopilot software team at Tesla to achieve generalized full autonomy. If interested, contact [email protected]

This is the significant part of his tweets today. He is not just looking for developers, he is making a strategy statement and an impression.

 

[phigment]

Uh, 2 hours of stock movement neither confirms nor denies any theory you want to put out there.

Good point, and the morning is usually the most volatile anyways. I guess the AI tweet was just weighing on my mind.

 

[McMuggets]

@elonmusk: Ramping up the Autopilot software team at Tesla to achieve generalized full autonomy. If interested, contact [email protected]

This is the significant part of his tweets today. He is not just looking for developers, he is making a strategy statement and an impression.

This sounds interesting, especially the "generalized" part. Does Elon mean generalized as in a "fleet" of autonomous cars ala Adam Jonas comments? Or in that each Tesla on the road is teaching not only itself but also other Tesla's (and maybe other car brands who wish to access the real-world data being mined) to drive autonomously or simply improve the current autopilot?

Sounds like with GM's recent moves, Apple, Google, Faraday Future, etc..... we can surmise that Tesla wants to stay ahead of the pack. When have we ever seen a automobile CEO be so up front in recruiting and directly interviewing? Detroit is being left in the dust, and California is eating their lunch soon if they don't hurry things along and get on the EV train pronto.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Finally we have some datapoints that line up and tell us that Model X production is ramping:
- Model X vehicles spotted at end of production in Fremont.
- Delivery timeframe (last week in December) given to a Model X owner.
- First review of a production Model X out yesterday.

Curious what comes next.

 

[Blip]

Ditto

The comment was made regarding the "dispatching ... talent". My point is that management may be replaced for reasons outside of Musk's control.

 

[ecarfan]

Why does every move made by TM / Musk have to be part of some big brilliant plan?

Because that is exactly what it is.

See this blog post by Elon way back in 2006 The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me)

QUOTE: "So, in short, the master plan is:

Build sports car
Use that money to build an affordable car
Use that money to build an even more affordable car
While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options
Don't tell anyone."

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Low volume HFT ping pong?

 

[Bobbyducati]

wut just happened....