Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Scott Ales]

This begs the question...

Did this weeks run up play into the announcement today? I mean really, an unexplained week long green move, then bad news, and a drop likely to pre-week levels. Imagine how this would have worked when we were playing with $200. I don't think Elon would have been playing but the houses seem likely to have known. Was it an artificial floor to manage the gap?

I certainly don't trust them. The investment houses I mean.

 

[mejojo]

But why why why why oh why on a Friday???????

 

[Drax7]

It's actually more like 500K seat belts... assuming each car has an average of 4.5 (child seats and such)

whatever it will take less than a minute to check, a few more to fix.

installation issue, not a defective seat belt.

any defective cup holders?

 

[Scott Ales]

It's actually more like 500K seat belts... assuming each car has an average of 4.5 (child seats and such)

I understood it was just the front seats, no?

 

[ev-enthusiast]

It's actually more like 500K seat belts... assuming each car has an average of 4.5 (child seats and such)

As I have read it's only the two front belts.

I have added some more short term calls.

The seat belt is nothing Tesla Motors success story relies on.

Easy.

Update:
Love to add here ahead of confirmed Model X ramp, this is crazy

 

[Crowded Mind]

whatever it will take less than a minute to check a few more to fix.

installation issue not a defective seat belt.

I'm assuming his point was that the % of defectives is even smaller due to the 500,000 vs. 90,000.

 

[MartinAustin]

Big volume today folks.

It's actually not a big volume day at all, it's right around average volume, despite the seatbelt inspection recall.

Half-way through the day TSLA traded 2.16million shares. Average is 4.35million shares.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

From twitter I have the impression a lot of people loaded puts.
Could this snap back and be the trigger for an awesome squeeze during Model X ramp/deliveries???

 

[austinEV]

... any defective cup holders?

TM cleverly avoids that issue by avoiding cupholders.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

TM cleverly avoids that issue by avoiding cupholders.

BTW amazing to see all the media outlets doing copy&paste so quick!

 

[FluxCap]

Things I am thinking about:

1) What is the material cost of this recall to Tesla
2) When will bears will spin up "Tesla safety ratings may be in question" FUD
3) Will this impact Model S customer demand in any way, putting 2015 guidance in question
4) How many investors see this as a convenient entry point prior to Model X lines coming fully online
5) Will this news fizzle out over the weekend, or will it grow in volume
6) Does this merit a Tesla blog post (probably not)?

Any thoughts?

 

[austinEV]

Things I am thinking about:

1) What is the material cost of this recall to Tesla
2) When will bears will spin up "Tesla safety ratings may be in question" FUD
3) Will this impact Model S customer demand in any way, putting 2015 guidance in question
4) How many investors see this as a convenient entry point prior to Model X lines coming fully online
5) Will this news fizzle out over the weekend, or will it grow in volume
6) Does this merit a Tesla blog post (probably not)?

Any thoughts?

I think you can say the market has rendered its verdict already. The "downgrade" from consumer reports was absorbed in a swift and vicious way. I think we can say with confidence that the 2+% swing down was related to that news item, and it just went down to and found support at the 20day. (exactly there as of 12:56 EST) There are lots of recalls all the time. Typical person won't know or care. I predict a fizzle. I also bought some weeklies that expire in a few hours Missed the bottom, trying to eak out a profit.

Edit: Just got an email from TM about the recall. Advising us to schedule an appointment. Hmm... less good.

 

[aznt1217]

I understood it was just the front seats, no?

Yes that is correct, but I'm assuming all are supplied by the same supplier.

 

[FluxCap]

I think you can say the market has rendered its verdict already. The "downgrade" from consumer reports was absorbed in a swift and vicious way. I think we can say with confidence that the 2+% swing down was related to that news item, and it just went down to and found support at the 20day. (exactly there as of 12:56 EST) There are lots of recalls all the time. Typical person won't know or care. I predict a fizzle. I also bought some weeklies that expire in a few hours Missed the bottom, trying to eak out a profit.

Edit: Just got an email from TM about the recall. Advising us to schedule an appointment. Hmm... less good.

Could you post or share the e-mail? I don't have it yet.

 

[hockeythug]

Could you post or share the e-mail? I don't have it yet.

I just got the email.


We are sending you this email to inform you of a proactive action Tesla is taking to ensure your safety. Tesla recently found a Model S in Europe with a front seat belt that was not properly connected to the outboard lap pretensioner. This vehicle was not involved in a crash and there were no injuries. However, in the event of a crash, a seatbelt in this condition would not provide full protection. First and foremost, we care about your safety.

This is the only customer vehicle we know of with this condition. Even though we have since inspected the seat belts in over 3,000 vehicles spanning the entire range of Model S production and found no issues, we have decided to conduct a voluntary recall as a proactive and precautionary measure to inspect all front Model S seat belts and make absolutely sure that they are properly connected. (We have no concerns regarding seat belts in the rear of Model S.)

Our records indicate you own a Model S affected by this voluntary recall. We will be sending you an official recall notice by mail, but you don’t need to wait for this notice to schedule your free inspection.

You have two options for your inspection:

1) Use our online scheduling tool to book an appointment
BOOK ONLINE
2) Visit a Tesla Service Center

Locate your nearest service center using the link below and call directly to book an appointment. You can email the service center team if this is more convenient for you, email addresses are listed on the Find Us page.
FIND US
Alternatively, you can call 844-248-3752. By calling this number, you will automatically be routed to a local service center based upon the area code you are calling from. If you have a blocked number, or would like to reach a specific location, please dial the service center directly.

If you are concerned about the status of your seat belt prior to your scheduled inspection, you may be able to detect this condition by pulling very firmly on the lap portion of your seat belt with a force of at least 80 pounds. This procedure may detect an improperly attached seat belt but performing this procedure does not replace the need for an inspection by a Tesla technician.
Thank you for your ongoing support. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any questions.

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...a-recalls-entire-Model-S-fleet-for-seat-belts

 

[MartinAustin]

Could you post or share the e-mail? I don't have it yet.

Anyone who reads this will be in no doubt as to the lack of seriousness for TSLA. It is not a big deal.

We are sending you this email to inform you of a proactive action Tesla is taking to ensure your safety. Tesla recently found a Model S in Europe with a front seat belt that was not properly connected to the outboard lap pretensioner. This vehicle was not involved in a crash and there were no injuries. However, in the event of a crash, a seatbelt in this condition would not provide full protection. First and foremost, we care about your safety. This is the only customer vehicle we know of with this condition. Even though we have since inspected the seat belts in over 3,000 vehicles spanning the entire range of Model S production and found no issues, we have decided to conduct a voluntary recall as a proactive and precautionary measure to inspect all front Model S seat belts and make absolutely sure that they are properly connected. (We have no concerns regarding seat belts in the rear of Model S.) Our records indicate you own a Model S affected by this voluntary recall. We will be sending you an official recall notice by mail, but you don’t need to wait for this notice to schedule your free inspection. If you are concerned about the status of your seat belt prior to your scheduled inspection, you may be able to detect this condition by pulling very firmly on the lap portion of your seat belt with a force of at least 80 pounds. This procedure may detect an improperly attached seat belt but performing this procedure does not replace the need for an inspection by a Tesla technician.

 

[techmaven]

While it is a real issue, overall, this recall is not really material to the company. We are in the midst of a cacophony of recalls amongst pretty much every automaker where people have died.

I think investors will realize that this isn't the issue the bears were looking for and we will resume our price action waiting for Model X ramp up.

 

[Lessmog]

I was just reading this thread when the mail plonked down in my mailbox, in hastily google-translated but understandable "Swedish".
Happy to see Tesla act pro-actively again, like two years ago (?) when some catch for the rear seats was non-redundant.
A little less happy to have to book an inspection, but what the hey.
A lot less happy for not having cash ready in my investment account until Monday.

Silver linings. Pots of gold. Rainbows & unicorns.

Merry tidings, all!

 

[Scott Ales]

Nice rebound so far.

Congrats to those who added positions. Looks like a great play for the next setup!

Would be interesting to know what entity or who dumped the 300k shares earlier. Didn't play that too well it seems.

 

[FluxCap]

While it is a real issue, overall, this recall is not really material to the company. We are in the midst of a cacophony of recalls amongst pretty much every automaker where people have died.

I think investors will realize that this isn't the issue the bears were looking for and we will resume our price action waiting for Model X ramp up.

I think this is right. Reading the Jalopnik article really puts it in perspective. Other automakers (GM, etc) deny responsibility and avoid recalls after multiple deaths and injuries in their cars, Tesla recalls the entire fleet due to one loose bolt in one car that never caused a problem, and it can be checked and fixed in seconds. Which company has your safety foremost in mind? Could actually turn into some good PR.

Oddly enough, Tesla’s saying that its recalling the cars out of “an abundance of caution,” as it hasn’t actually been able to find or replicate the issue either on its assembly line, or in any cars in its possession. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and its global counterparts have already been notified, the spokesperson said.

But while we’re on the topic of recalls like this, I have to say that it’s commendable that Tesla’s going this far, and has acted this quickly, and with this much disclosure, over a single incident. Unlike some other companies, which I will not name as I am a very polite person, but which I will very gratuitously link to stories about and which you should all read because what the hell.
You all know what you did, other car companies.