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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

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Demand Issues
The more I look back on 2015, the more I think that Tesla knows what it's doing in matching demand and production. Rather than tweeking production to meet demand, I think we see more of the reverse: tweeking demand to match production capability. Perhaps earlier this year there was an unexpected slight dip in demand and perhaps Tesla may have made a minor production rate adjustment during that time. For the most part, though, I trust Elon when he says he has demand levers that can be pulled, if needed. The referral plan was certainly a powerful short-term demand lever, and the autopilot will be a longer-term demand lever. It looks like deployment of Tesla to South Korea has been a ready demand lever and Tesla is getting ready to deploy it. Because of this careful tweeking of demand to match production capabilities, we see reasonable wait times for Model S: Not too long and not too skinny.

Advertising remains a potent demand lever if it is needed. At least a year ago, Elon mentioned it might be deployed as early as 2016. My guess is that if Model X can ramp up sufficiently in Q1, this demand lever may be able to be held off until 2017.
 
I did some rough calculations:

To start with, there's about 10,000 Model S in Norway and there's currently 9 service centers.

Assuming each service center can fix five cars at the same time, each inspection takes 1 hour including all the logistics and assuming a 37.5 hour work week, that means the service centers can inspect about 1700 cars per week. This in turn means the additional service wait time should be somewhere in the area of 6 weeks.

Maybe they can train office/gallery staff to perform the diagnostic check and only involve the service techs if something actually needs to be done.
 
I did some rough calculations:

To start with, there's about 10,000 Model S in Norway and there's currently 9 service centers.

Assuming each service center can fix five cars at the same time, each inspection takes 1 hour including all the logistics and assuming a 37.5 hour work week, that means the service centers can inspect about 1700 cars per week. This in turn means the additional service wait time should be somewhere in the area of 6 weeks.

According to Tesla (as reported by Reuters) fixing an improperly installed belt assembly will take about 6 minutes. That is if the car is determined to have the improperly installed belt assembly. To check for the potential defect of installation one just needs to pull lap portion of the seat belt with force exceeding 80lbs - there is no need to even bring the car into a service bay. Based on the above the 6 weeks delay calculation is a gross overestimation. The impact will be negligible, especially taking into account the fact that owners, according to the e-mail sent by Tesla, can check for improper installation of the seat belt themselves by doing above pull test.

I just checked my seat belts by doing the check suggested by Tesla and found that there is no problem. I will, of course, ask Tesla to do the inspection, but I am not going to schedule an appointment just for this - it will be added to my to do list for the next service appointment. I bet that majority of owners will choose to do the same.

The impact of this voluntary recall on the workload of the SC will be really negligible.

This voluntary recall will deservedly result in some good PR.

Fixing an improperly installed belt assembly will take about 6 minutes, Tesla officials said.

Read more at Reutershttp://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/20/us-tesla-recall-idUSKCN0T92CR20151120#FxW63dbDrxgF9KAZ.99
 
People who ordered in late October reporting new January delivery timeframes (including someone in CA): Just saw delivery estimate go from Nov to Jan!

I think the website still says late December for new orders as per vgrin's wait times thread, so not sure what this implies. Pushing out some Model S to ramp up Model X?

Gotta be a mistake.

Following up on this, I think you're right it's a mistake. Someone reporting multiple updates today, jumping from Dec-Jan to December to Nov-Dec: Model S Delivery Update - Page 861
 
I know that they use rules based on SP for the strike increments. Probably do the same for the maximum strike price. Maybe they add the 490's when the SP is over something like $260?

I'm not sure if I still think that buying way OTM calls is a good medium term (8-12 months) strategy but this is how the process works:
Incorrect because today they added 310's. I found this:
FAQ
There are rules, and they respond to requests. This is the address for sending requests:
[email protected]

These are their replies:
Based on the OLPP listing rules anything over $320 for TSLA is ineligible to be listed at this point.

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Below is the link for the listing rules.
http://wallstreet.cch.com/CBOEtools/PlatformViewer.asp?SelectedNode=chp_1_1&manual=/CBOE/rules/cboe-rules/
The JAN18 $320 strike was listed today and is available for trading. Upon my further review of TSLA it is has an exemption to the OLPP rule and can have strikes + or - 100% of the underlying price. Currently TSLA is eligible to have strikes up to $450
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I wrote:
Would you please make the highest possible TSLA strike prices available?
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I need you to be specific with the strikes you are looking for please.
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I wrote:
TSLA closed at $220 which means according to your previous email $440 is okay.

I would like $440's. I would prefer $450's if possible. If due to a price drop neither of the above strike prices are possible I'd like $430's.
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I added $440 and $450 for Monday.
 
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I stopped by my SC to have the seat belts checked today. It took less than 5 minutes, and was done by one of the service advisers, not even a technician. Super Easy. They move the front seats all the way forward and check the assembly just above the floor where the belt it attached. They said they have already checked several thousand cars, and have not found any problems other than the one car in Europe that started the whole thing. A complete non-issue.

As far as demand is concerned, I think the fact that Tesla elected to skip the LA Auto Show means that there is not a demand problem. If there was, I believe they would be hitting all the auto shows where people can touch the car, before spending money on advertising.
 
According to Tesla (as reported by Reuters) .. The impact will be negligible, especially taking into account the fact that owners, according to the e-mail sent by Tesla, can check for improper installation of the seat belt themselves by doing above pull test.

I just checked my seat belts by doing the check suggested by Tesla and found that there is no problem. I will, of course, ask Tesla to do the inspection, but I am not going to schedule an appointment just for this - it will be added to my to do list for the next service appointment. I bet that majority of owners will choose to do the same.

The impact of this voluntary recall on the workload of the SC will be really negligible.

This voluntary recall will deservedly result in some good PR.

I'm confused. Is Tesla suggesting that owners do this test themselves? If the owners don't do the test correctly, who becomes liable if the seat belt if found faulty in some accident? Will owners have to sign some waiver if they don't take their cars in for the fix? How did you ensure you applied 80 lbs of force at the correct angle etc. ?

I'm also wondering why only a single car will have this issue. Are these seat belts not installed by programmed robots in the fully automated production line, that tighten bolts to an exact spec? If not, then how can anyone claim that it is a rare issue? Is this a bolt that isn't tightened enough or some defect in materials used?

I'm also thinking, if the car in question is the one in Denmark, driving on AP without anyone seating in the driver seat. May be, due to faulty seat belt, the car failed to detect the absence of the driver and kept on driving.
 
I stopped by my SC to have the seat belts checked today. It took less than 5 minutes, and was done by one of the service advisers, not even a technician. Super Easy. They move the front seats all the way forward and check the assembly just above the floor where the belt it attached. They said they have already checked several thousand cars, and have not found any problems other than the one car in Europe that started the whole thing. A complete non-issue.

As far as demand is concerned, I think the fact that Tesla elected to skip the LA Auto Show means that there is not a demand problem. If there was, I believe they would be hitting all the auto shows where people can touch the car, before spending money on advertising.

Thanks for sharing your service experience. This is increasingly looking like good, nearly-free PR.
 
I'm confused. Is Tesla suggesting that owners do this test themselves? If the owners don't do the test correctly, who becomes liable if the seat belt if found faulty in some accident? Will owners have to sign some waiver if they don't take their cars in for the fix? How did you ensure you applied 80 lbs of force at the correct angle etc. ?

I'm also wondering why only a single car will have this issue. Are these seat belts not installed by programmed robots in the fully automated production line, that tighten bolts to an exact spec? If not, then how can anyone claim that it is a rare issue? Is this a bolt that isn't tightened enough or some defect in materials used?

I'm also thinking, if the car in question is the one in Denmark, driving on AP without anyone seating in the driver seat. May be, due to faulty seat belt, the car failed to detect the absence of the driver and kept on driving.

Why escalate this unnecessarily
 
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It is major recall becomes seat belts are important for safety and because the entire fleet of Model Ss are affected.

To me this really unnecessary "recall" due to one harmless incident of a loose bolt appears to be a public relations ploy by Tesla to assure the public of its total commitment to safety. It may also be a marketing ploy in two respects. First it gets Tesla in the news for being concerned about safety without the expense of advertising. Second it draws Model S owners into service centers and may inspire them to trade up to newer Tesla cars with more expensive options. That would also allow Tesla to purchase the "older" cars and earn a nice profit when reselling them as Certified Pre-Owned. It appears that algobots and human short sellers today got trapped by this.
 
Demand Issues


Advertising remains a potent demand lever if it is needed. At least a year ago, Elon mentioned it might be deployed as early as 2016. My guess is that if Model X can ramp up sufficiently in Q1, this demand lever may be able to be held off until 2017.

I spoke to my x delivery specialist today and was told he received news today he could share with me...I should expect my X to be built in December and I should be able to pick it up at the factory in mid or late december
im vin 805 but I don't think they are building them in vin order necessarily, just a hunch
 
I spoke to my x delivery specialist today and was told he received news today he could share with me...I should expect my X to be built in December and I should be able to pick it up at the factory in mid or late december
im vin 805 but I don't think they are building them in vin order necessarily, just a hunch

Good, sooner it's delivered the sooner we can start moving towards $300. If Elon can give us all a christmas present for sticking with him through all these years, this is the time.
 
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