Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[tftf]

I can't find anything that suggests they have an advantage in any area that matters (technology, reliability, proven track record, necessary capital). Tesla by definition has a more proven track record with the reliability of its battery systems...

I guess several of Tesla's top execs in Europe leaving for Sonnenbatterie a few weeks ago wouldn't have done the move if nothing interesting was brewing at Sonnenbatterie...

More of Teslas Top People in Germany Defect to Sonnenbatterie | Greentech Media

They had enough insider knowledge to judge both product offerings.

Besides I don't understand why everyone is so focused on just one competitor. It's true that Sonnenbatterie was a pioneer in the field, especially for residential solutions. But there are now dozens of competitors globally in the ESS/storage field, including Tesla's own supplier Panasonic. Most of them have already been on the market for some time.

Finally, ESS/local storage batteries often have very different requirements than EV batteries. Tesla has no proven track record in this space.

 

[jesselivenomore]

When will we see $500 TSLA? I think 2016 could be a great year for TM/TSLA and I think $300 will be doable in a great 2016, but $500??

$500 is based on DCF model and the price overshooting to the upside caused by short covering, like 2013 but to a lesser extent. FYI 30% of the float being short is not a common phenomenon. It means one side of the trade or the other is severely wrong, and when they are forced to flatten their position it will cause unusual volatility. As for when, I expect to get there 4-6 months after the ER that TSLA achieves cash flow positive, or at least very close to positive. So sometime later in the year.

What is your $300 based on?

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

I guess several of Tesla's top execs in Europe leaving for Sonnenbatterie a few weeks ago wouldn't have done the move if nothing interesting was brewing at Sonnenbatterie...

More of Teslas Top People in Germany Defect to Sonnenbatterie | Greentech Media

They had enough insider knowledge to judge both product offerings.

Besides I don't understand why everyone is so focused on just one competitor. It's true that Sonnenbatterie was a pioneer in the field, especially for residential solutions. But there are now dozens of competitors globally in the ESS/storage field, including Tesla's own supplier Panasonic. Most of them have already been on the market for some time.

Finally, ESS/local storage batteries often have very different requirements than EV batteries. Tesla has no proven track record in this space.

Things don't work like that. Also, your comment about people leaving Tesla for Sonnenbatterie is as obtuse as most of your other posts.

 

[tftf]

Things don't work like that. Also, your comment about people leaving Tesla for Sonnenbatterie is as obtuse as most of your other posts.

Obstuse? Please elaborate. I noted two simple facts:

- Tesla has lost several key execs to Sonnenbatterie in recent weeks. I doubt they would have left if nothing interesting was coming up at their new employer.

- There already are dozens of ESS/local storage providers worldwide (including Tesla's own cell supplier Panasonic offering such products under its brand name).

 

[jesselivenomore]

Tftf, make sure you don't forget to double down on your position when the time comes. What could possibly go wrong?

 

[eloder]

I guess several of Tesla's top execs in Europe leaving for Sonnenbatterie a few weeks ago wouldn't have done the move if nothing interesting was brewing at Sonnenbatterie...

More of Teslas Top People in Germany Defect to Sonnenbatterie | Greentech Media

They had enough insider knowledge to judge both product offerings.

Besides I don't understand why everyone is so focused on just one competitor. It's true that Sonnenbatterie was a pioneer in the field, especially for residential solutions. But there are now dozens of competitors globally in the ESS/storage field, including Tesla's own supplier Panasonic. Most of them have already been on the market for some time.

Finally, ESS/local storage batteries often have very different requirements than EV batteries. Tesla has no proven track record in this space.

Tesla has been piloting stationary storage for years, much longer than most all competitors.

Most importantly, Tesla's stationary storage warranties are 2-3 times as long as competitors while still coming in at less than half the cost after installation fees (at worse).

If the competitors are as good as you say they are, they'd stand by their products with substantially longer warranties.

You can also use the "Tesla employers leaving" excuse for Apple. Since Tesla gains more employees than it loses to Apple, does that mean insiders know that Tesla will be the bigger and more profitable business of the two in the lifetime of their career?

 

[Cosmacelf]

Or maybe the head of Tesla German operations was fired for poor performance...

 

[Yuri_G]

Elon's is a 2015. #1
10th digit is an "F" which is 2015, according to the decoder.

The 10th digit is a G. 2016. The first F is for Fremont, the second for "Founders".

 

[Bet TSLA]

Quite interesting, I'm 30 years in the business of the irrelevant past....

Exactly. That's the source of your problem in understanding the present. There's a reason that Tesla tries to avoid hiring people associated with the car business.

I have traded vehicles for the past 30 years as a vocation and have been fortunate to continually engage new methods and technologies before my contemporaries.

This is the source of your confusion. Tesla vehicles should be thought of primarily as electronic gadgets with updatable software rather than cars. Yes, they are also cars, but that is not the determining characteristic for the resale market. If you had experience trading iPhones over the past several years you would have a much better understanding of where this market is going.

Yes, this is just my opinion. Feel free to disagree. But I suggest that you be very careful in relying on your experience, as it will lead you to misplaced confidence in your judgment.

 

[tftf]

Or maybe the head of Tesla German operations was fired for poor performance...

What about the six others then? More of Teslas Top People in Germany Defect to Sonnenbatterie | Greentech Media

 

[Papafox]

What about the six others then? More of Teslas Top People in Germany Defect to Sonnenbatterie | Greentech Media

Let me take a wild stab at it. Sonnenbatterie offered them more money. That's how companies lure people away in Silicon Valley most of the time.

 

[BriansTesla]

Exactly. That's the source of your problem in understanding the present. There's a reason that Tesla tries to avoid hiring people associated with the car business.
This is the source of your confusion. Tesla vehicles should be thought of primarily as electronic gadgets with updatable software rather than cars. Yes, they are also cars, but that is not the determining characteristic for the resale market. If you had experience trading iPhones over the past several years you would have a much better understanding of where this market is going.
Yes, this is just my opinion. Feel free to disagree. But I suggest that you be very careful in relying on your experience, as it will lead you to misplaced confidence in your judgment.

I think my experience is somewhat like Scott's. 40 years in the automotive business allowed me in 2012 to recognize that the Model S would change the world. I invested in TSLA and that paid for my MS. My understanding of the way auto businesses operate has given me a perspective that has allowed me to see where we've been and perhaps where we're going. All it takes is some knowledge and an open mind. Scott's viewpoints are some of the best I've read on TMC.

 

[Cosmacelf]

What about the six others then? More of Teslas Top People in Germany Defect to Sonnenbatterie | Greentech Media

Eh, the head goes, then hires a bunch of people he knows. Happens all the time. Especially in sales.

 

[sundaymorning]

Obstuse? Please elaborate. I noted two simple facts:

- Tesla has lost several key execs to Sonnenbatterie in recent weeks. I doubt they would have left if nothing interesting was coming up at their new employer.

- There already are dozens of ESS/local storage providers worldwide (including Tesla's own cell supplier Panasonic offering such products under its brand name).

The only executives that matter are Elon and JB.

 

[Bet TSLA]

40 years in the automotive business allowed me in 2012 to recognize that the Model S would change the world. I invested in TSLA and that paid for my MS.

Hey, me too. Somewhat later than you as mine is a 2014 P85. But I have next to no real knowledge of the car business and attribute my success in the stock mostly to luck. I'm hoping to get lucky again and win a Model 3, but I've got a couple of years to get there.

My understanding of the way auto businesses operate has given me a perspective that has allowed me to see where we've been and perhaps where we're going. All it takes is some knowledge and an open mind.

Okay. I think the key is an open mind, but that's a matter for debate. The automotive world is changing in very fundamental ways. I think a Model S will last just fine for 20-30 years, but what will it be worth? Who will want one? All the same people who want an original 2007 iPhone (meaning nobody)? How will the market deal with this?

Scott's viewpoints are some of the best I've read on TMC.

Well, perhaps you are influenced by him having a similar background and generally agreeing with you? I know I'm always dazzled by the brilliance of people who agree with my conclusions.:smile: Me, I find that Scott's perspective generally makes little sense to me, although I've learned something about the used car business. And when he posts about the stock price movements it generally seems to be totally emotion driven, flipping back and forth from day to day, so I pretty much ignore those posts.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

SP up a bit in Europe.

 

[RobStark]

What about the six others then? More of Teslas Top People in Germany Defect to Sonnenbatterie | Greentech Media

Phillip Schröder's team that performed poorly at Tesla Germany and is being replaced by the Tesla Switzerland group.

 

[AlMc]

$500 is based on DCF model and the price overshooting to the upside caused by short covering, like 2013 but to a lesser extent. FYI 30% of the float being short is not a common phenomenon. It means one side of the trade or the other is severely wrong, and when they are forced to flatten their position it will cause unusual volatility. As for when, I expect to get there 4-6 months after the ER that TSLA achieves cash flow positive, or at least very close to positive. So sometime later in the year.

What is your $300 based on?

A WAG, just like about 99% of what we all post here.. My WAG is just more conservative than yours.:wink:. If we hit $500+ next year I will buy you dinner..See you are located in NY/NY. I will make the drive up.

 

[Lump]

http://www.streetinsider.com/Analys...us+-+Credit+Suisse/11106678.html?si_client=st

Credit Suisse analyst Dan Galves reiterated an Outperform rating and $325 price target on Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA), saying fourth quarter guidance looks achievable and they still see a reasonable path to $4 EPS in 2016.

Overall, Galves sees 2016 as a much cleaner year, which enables operating leverage. "The biggest future catalyst we see is Tesla generating significantly higher earnings and reducing the cash burn," he said. "From $2.30 annualized loss in 3Q15, we estimate 36k incremental Model X units will drive $7 of incremental EPS. This, plus better Model S margin, offset by lower-than-consensus SG&A / R&D growth means that $4 EPS (vs consensus $1.86) and a reduction in fullyear FCF burn to ~$500MM is achievable…although we think even hitting consensus numbers in 2016 would be a substantial catalyst."

 

[Scott Ales]

Exactly. That's the source of your problem in understanding the present. There's a reason that Tesla tries to avoid hiring people associated with the car business.



This is the source of your confusion. Tesla vehicles should be thought of primarily as electronic gadgets with updatable software rather than cars. Yes, they are also cars, but that is not the determining characteristic for the resale market. If you had experience trading iPhones over the past several years you would have a much better understanding of where this market is going.

Yes, this is just my opinion. Feel free to disagree. But I suggest that you be very careful in relying on your experience, as it will lead you to misplaced confidence in your judgment.

Oh my, you missed all of my points and I am not the least bit confused about Tesla.

I somehow have survived with my misplaced confidence for 53 years. If my last 50+ years is at least as good as the first I can continue to rely on it. As will my heirs.

Back to short term price movements for the benefit of everyone else.

- - - Updated - - -

Hey, me too. Somewhat later than you as mine is a 2014 P85. But I have next to no real knowledge of the car business and attribute my success in the stock mostly to luck. I'm hoping to get lucky again and win a Model 3, but I've got a couple of years to get there.



Okay. I think the key is an open mind, but that's a matter for debate. The automotive world is changing in very fundamental ways. I think a Model S will last just fine for 20-30 years, but what will it be worth? Who will want one? All the same people who want an original 2007 iPhone (meaning nobody)? How will the market deal with this?



Well, perhaps you are influenced by him having a similar background and generally agreeing with you? I know I'm always dazzled by the brilliance of people who agree with my conclusions.:smile: Me, I find that Scott's perspective generally makes little sense to me, although I've learned something about the used car business. And when he posts about the stock price movements it generally seems to be totally emotion driven, flipping back and forth from day to day, so I pretty much ignore those posts.

I apologize for the person or people in the car business who clearly have created a deep resentment towards us. One of the most disappointing things in life is when one person is judged by a single association with any one group. As if anyone can be judged by a name.

Think "Frozen"

Let it go, Let it go...