Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[JRP3]

Does there always have to be a mic hogging rambling nut asking multiple nonsensical questions? They should have tackled that woman and grabbed the mic from her.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Bloomberg reporting that TM is in talks with European utilities about energy storage projects.

 

[chickensevil]

Yes, it would seem all the dual-motor inventory cars have either been sold or moved to locations to be used as demo/test-drive models. It is nearing the holiday season after all, and I can see a lot of customers buying up the dual-motor models at discounts in order to get their car right away at a good discount.

Just to note, not every car you see can be purchased on the spot. Many of their inventory is specifically held back to ensure there are demo and loaner cars on hand as they do not want what happened at the end of 2013 to happen again, where they sell everything off completely leading to no inventory at all. So assuming that what you see on the website is all that is actually available, the list being low should be a great sign of strong demand for inventory cars with minimal discounting (I have looked over the inventory as recently as early November, and there was nothing in inventory that made compromising what I wanted, vs minor discounts (like 1-3k was the discount range), vs waiting to order brand new (which comes Friday!) over a ~1 month period.

So you are talking about people who rather than wait a few weeks (still saying end of December in estimations) is pushing the buy it now button with little to no pressure from sales (that I experienced, the guy was pretty "meh" regardless of which way I wanted to go, inventory vs custom) should say a lot about the continued demand of the product.

I guess, but definitely not to most people's tastes. In short, I expected a mass market vehicle with broad appeal and was given a niche vehicle with limited appeal. I guess when you hear OMG TESLA KILLAR 1000x over you start to think maybe there's something out there that's going to be somewhat comparable or competitive, but there isn't.

For the price market, I wouldn't say it is selling poorly, but it also isn't a blowout either. From Wikipedia:

Honda announced that by the end of July 2009, worldwide sales of Fit/Jazz reached 3 million. One year later, global cumulative sales reached 3.5 million units in July 2010

They also list 2014 sales for the US at 59,340... which while not great... isn't terrible considering most Americans just don't buy such tiny cars. We are likely the worst market for A segment / supermini segment. As in smaller than "subcompact" (although technically fitting also in the subcompact market... most people in the US buy a Civic before they buy this) and sees similar cars fit in this category like the Mazda 2 and Ford Fiesta.

Globally this design is well enough that all things being equal should sell is respectable volumes assuming GM actually makes it decent and markets the thing.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Oil down about 5% and below $40, any reason?

 

[Earlian]

UN CCC bashing

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Interesting things will happen in the next few weeks. No reduction in output + stars and national commitments + possible carbon tax should force a number of oil operations to cease due to endless contango. If demand is declining, supply is increasing, and production is remaining the same, it will force governments to act, irrespective of a if certain countries believe we should do anything about climate change. It becomes an economic argument that even the oil embedded parties, "cough" (Republicans) can't ignore.

Thankfully many states are preparing to introduce their own carbon taxes, and are preparing to raise the gasoline tax.

Arguments currently being ignored by republicans: (Perhaps this deserves to be an open thread?)

1) We spend too much money defending and subsiding oil.

2) Too many people die every year protecting oil operations.

3) Reducing dependency on oil will hurt ISIS. ISIS is obtaining a lot of its money from stolen oil that is being illegally brought into the global oil market via Turkey.

4) Climate Change is real. If we don't significantly reduce carbon emissions, the world as we know it is doomed. Starvation and loss of land due to rising sea levels and increasing temperatures will cause political and social instability, that will cause a significant increase in displaced people (climate refugees), and will strengthen groups such as ISIS.

5) To Be Continued

 

[RobStark]

They also list 2014 sales for the US at 59,340... which while not great... isn't terrible considering most Americans just don't buy such tiny cars. We are likely the worst market for A segment / supermini segment.

The problem for the Bolt is that it is not a global car,~90% of projected sales are in the US.

When Americans look at the Bolt they see a $16k car then the sticker says $37,500 for the base.

Talk about sticker shock. Californians will be told there is a $2500 rebate in addition to the $7500 Federal tax deduction. That will help. For a while. Still, Americans wont see a $27,500 car in the Bolt.

Europeans and Asians are used to buying fully loaded A segment cars for ~$30k. There it is not such a stretch. But so far the Bolt is scheduled for USA,Canada and S Korea.

 

[dalalsid]

The problem for the Bolt is that it is not a global car,~90% of projected sales are in the US.

When Americans look at the Bolt they see a $16k car then the sticker says $37,500 for the base.

Talk about sticker shock. Californians will be told there is a $2500 rebate in addition to the $7500 Federal tax deduction. That will help. For a while. Still, Americans wont see a $27,500 car in the Bolt.

Europeans and Asians are used to buying fully loaded A segment cars for ~$30k. There it is not such a stretch. But so far the Bolt is scheduled for USA,Canada and S Korea.

I think if the Bolt sells, it will be because of lease deals. There are already manufacturer rebates on the 2016 Leaf, which just started rolling out now. So people who look at - hey this lease payment is decent considering no gas - are the customers.

 

[esk8mw]

For the price market, I wouldn't say it is selling poorly, but it also isn't a blowout either. From Wikipedia:



They also list 2014 sales for the US at 59,340... which while not great... isn't terrible considering most Americans just don't buy such tiny cars. We are likely the worst market for A segment / supermini segment. As in smaller than "subcompact" (although technically fitting also in the subcompact market... most people in the US buy a Civic before they buy this) and sees similar cars fit in this category like the Mazda 2 and Ford Fiesta.

Globally this design is well enough that all things being equal should sell is respectable volumes assuming GM actually makes it decent and markets the thing.

Isn't the Fit like half the price of the Bolt? Or less? I would love to see the sales figures on the Fit if it priced at $37,500. I doubt it would top 10k in the US. The Bolt will absolutely have limited appeal, IMO. Certainly more than 10K since there's a growing market for EVs and so few to choose from, but sales will be waaaaay off what they could be if it didn't look like....that.

 

[RobStark]

I think if the Bolt sells, it will be because of lease deals. There are already manufacturer rebates on the 2016 Leaf, which just started rolling out now. So people who look at - hey this lease payment is decent considering no gas - are the customers.

Subsidized lease deals are effectively a price cut.

If GM does zero down $199/month for 36 months at 10k miles per year they are effectively selling a $22k Bolt.

That makes sense to consumers when they see the car.

 

[dalalsid]

Subsidized lease deals are effectively a price cut.

If GM does zero down $199/month for 36 months at 10k miles per year they are effectively selling a $22k Bolt.

That makes sense to consumers when they see the car.

Yeah that's the only way they will sell I think. My guess is something like 299/month 2500 down and dealer incentives of 2500 to wipe out the downpayment.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Subsidized lease deals are effectively a price cut.

If GM does zero down $199/month for 36 months at 10k miles per year they are effectively selling a $22k Bolt.

That makes sense to consumers when they see the car.

GM will have to heavily subsidize the first year production of the Bolt. There is no compelling reason for a person to buy them. If they don't sell a decent number, the company will run into many problems. GM will sell every Bolt it intends to sell, however, many of those sales will be entirely due to GM heavily subsidizing the price.

 

[Johan]

I think if the Bolt sells, it will be because of lease deals. There are already manufacturer rebates on the 2016 Leaf, which just started rolling out now. So people who look at - hey this lease payment is decent considering no gas - are the customers.

Subsidized lease deals are effectively a price cut.

If GM does zero down $199/month for 36 months at 10k miles per year they are effectively selling a $22k Bolt.

That makes sense to consumers when they see the car.

Yeah that's the only way they will sell I think. My guess is something like 299/month 2500 down and dealer incentives of 2500 to wipe out the downpayment.

GM will have to heavily subsidize the first year production of the Bolt. There is no compelling reason for a person to buy them. If they don't sell a decent number, the company will run into many problems. GM will sell every Bolt it intends to sell, however, many of those sales will be entirely due to GM heavily subsidizing the price.

Truest conversation here today. GM knows it and we know it. They know in their hearts now they should have gone EV for real, not just for show. Now it's damed if they do, damned if they don't. They will sell at a loss if forced.

 

[theschnell]

Truest conversation here today. GM knows it and we know it. They know in their hearts now they should have gone EV for real, not just for show. Now it's damed if they do, damned if they don't. They will sell at a loss if forced.

When gas was $4 per gallon, I don't think they would have had much trouble selling 40,000 of these at or near MSRP. At $1.89, they are going to be hurting. I was considering leasing one, but I just can't do it unless heavily subsidized. For me, the looks aren't that bad, but the car just doesn't generate excitement in any department. It doesn't look great, the performance will likely be average, the utility average etc. Basically its a very average car with a very above average price. Would it really have been that hard to have some decent styling and decent performance at the same price point? Would it really raise the price of the car that much to do so? I think it would have saved them money in the long run, because the additional sales at MSRP would reduce the loss versus how much they will need to subsidize each sale now. Unfortunately, this is just another half-way attempt by GM rather than putting a little skin in the game. I don't even ask that they go all in, just put enough skin in the game to give yourself a chance.

 

[Johan]

When gas was $4 per gallon, I don't think they would have had much trouble selling 40,000 of these at or near MSRP. At $1.89, they are going to be hurting. I was considering leasing one, but I just can't do it unless heavily subsidized. For me, the looks aren't that bad, but the car just doesn't generate excitement in any department. It doesn't look great, the performance will likely be average, the utility average etc. Basically its a very average car with a very above average price. Would it really have been that hard to have some decent styling and decent performance at the same price point? Would it really raise the price of the car that much to do so? I think it would have saved them money in the long run, because the additional sales at MSRP would reduce the loss versus how much they will need to subsidize each sale now. Unfortunately, this is just another half-way attempt by GM rather than putting a little skin in the game. I don't even ask that they go all in, just put enough skin in the game to give yourself a chance.

Even that they couldn't commit to... sad.

 

[theschnell]

Even that they couldn't commit to... sad.

Actually, on further thought, if it simply has decent performance, I might definitely still be interested. And I have to admit, I have no idea what the performance is expected to be. It's just my bias that any GM small car will have horrible performance. I hope that in this case I am wrong.

 

[madodel]

So why is TSLA down $5.35 today? Shouldn't the climate concern that may or may not be driving down crude prices be good for the company that make non-ICE autos? Or is it just people taking profits from yesterday's runup?

 

[hockeythug]

So why is TSLA down $5.35 today? Shouldn't the climate concern that may or may not be driving down crude prices be good for the company that make non-ICE autos? Or is it just people taking profits from yesterday's runup?

Only thing I noticed was that oil was down 4% and at one point broke $40.

 

[Hogfighter]

Only thing I noticed was that oil was down 4% and at one point broke $40.

Yea, market down 1% and oil down to $40. Funny that oil fell because of EU carbon-bashing, which should have made EVs more attractive. But as oil falls, EVs are less attractive...

 

[AlMc]

Not sure if anyone has posted this. No Tesla at NAIAS this year. Link sent to me by another TMC friend:

Tesla, Mini, Jaguar, Land Rover passing on 2016 NAIAS