Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[BornToFly]

Not sure if anyone has posted this. No Tesla at NAIAS this year. Link sent to me by another TMC friend:

Tesla, Mini, Jaguar, Land Rover passing on 2016 NAIAS

More evidence that Tesla must not be constrained by low demand.

 

[mmd]

Actually, on further thought, if it simply has decent performance, I might definitely still be interested. And I have to admit, I have no idea what the performance is expected to be. It's just my bias that any GM small car will have horrible performance. I hope that in this case I am wrong.

If Chevy's other small EV, the Spark EV, is any indication, performance shouldn't be a concern. The Spark EV takes off faster than a Ferrari (so GM claims) from a dead stop. But as some would say, this thread is all negative conjectures about every other competitor, and positive hopes for Tesla. We should know the full specs for Bolt at CES 2016.

A big factor here is the HOV sticker in states like CA. A lot of people lease the Leaf here at $99/mo for this reason alone. The car is practically free. And this may still be no loss for GM/Nissan, as they don't have to spend money to buy ZEV credits in CARB states.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Not sure if anyone has posted this. No Tesla at NAIAS this year. Link sent to me by another TMC friend:

Tesla, Mini, Jaguar, Land Rover passing on 2016 NAIAS

Smart move by Tesla. It's only a matter of time until Tesla announces Tesla World or something similar. :biggrin:

Something about this Tweet stood out to me.

Also, this was announced today.

Closing the loop: Commission adopts ambitious new Circular Economy Package to boost competitiveness, create jobs and generate sustainable growth

Today the Commission adopted an ambitious new Circular Economy Package to stimulate Europe's transition towards a circular economy which will boost global competitiveness, foster sustainable economic growth and generate new jobs.

Today the European Commission adopted an ambitious new Circular Economy Package to help European businesses and consumers to make the transition to a stronger and more circular economy where resources are used in a more sustainable way. The proposed actions will contribute to "closing the loop" of product lifecycles through greater recycling and re-use, and bring benefits for both the environment and the economy. The plans will extract the maximum value and use from all raw materials, products and waste, fostering energy savings and reducing Green House Gas emissions. The proposals cover the full lifecycle: from production and consumption to waste management and the market for secondary raw materials. This transition will be supported financially by ESIF funding, €650 million from Horizon 2020 (the EU funding programme for research and innovation), €5.5 billion from structural funds for waste management, and investments in the circular economy at national level.

• Economic incentives for producers to put greener products on the market and support recovery and recycling schemes (e.g. for packaging, batteries, electric and electronic equipment, vehicles). (This bullet point stood out to me. It appears written for a certain "closed loop" Gigafactory.)

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-15-6203_en.htm

 

[dakh]

Smart move by Tesla. It's only a matter of time until Tesla announces Tesla World or something similar. :biggrin:

They're too busy desperately trying to meet sales figures so have no time for this stuff :tongue:

 

[maoing]

It's strange! 2016 NAIAS should be the stage for model X, isn't it? I don't think model X has been well received by public as of now. Is TM still not sure of some model X spec. or not confident to showcase a real production car?

Not sure if anyone has posted this. No Tesla at NAIAS this year. Link sent to me by another TMC friend:

Tesla, Mini, Jaguar, Land Rover passing on 2016 NAIAS

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

It's strange! 2016 NAIAS should be the stage for model X, isn't it? I don't think model X has been well received by public as of now. Is TM still not sure of some model X spec. or not confident to showcase a real production car?

According to who? You mention you think the Model X hasn't been well received. What is your thought based on? Tesla doesn't need NAIAS to educate people about the Model X.

 

[maoing]

A lot of potential buyers are still sitting on the fence until they can touch and test drive the car. A lot of spec. still not clear to many reservation holders.

According to who? You mention you think the Model X hasn't been well received. What is your thought based on? Tesla doesn't need NAIAS to educate people about the Model X.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

A lot of potential buyers are still sitting on the fence until they can touch and test drive the car. A lot of spec. still not clear to many reservation holders.

And your point? Tesla has periodic test drive events for the Model S. The same will almost certainly be true for the Model X, when the time is right.

 

[mmd]

Tesla CA rebate status till Nov 20. Not particularly impressive. insideevs estimates 3200 US+Canada deliveries for November. Could be backend heavy deliveries.

CVRP Rebate Statistics | Clean Vehicle Rebate Project

 

[ggies07]

It's strange! 2016 NAIAS should be the stage for model X, isn't it? I don't think model X has been well received by public as of now. Is TM still not sure of some model X spec. or not confident to showcase a real production car?

The article says they can't sell in Michigan, so why go there? Tesla is going to beat Detroit at their own game anyway...

 

[JRP3]

X production is sold out for most of next year already, why would Tesla need to do anything?

 

[MikeC]

Tesla CA rebate status till Nov 20. Not particularly impressive. insideevs estimates 3200 US+Canada deliveries for November. Could be backend heavy deliveries.

CVRP Rebate Statistics | Clean Vehicle Rebate Project

Don't forget that the new income cut-off since July will prevent some CA Model S buyers from claiming the rebate: Rich Are Officially Cut Off From California’s Electric Vehicle Rebates

- - - Updated - - -

It's strange! 2016 NAIAS should be the stage for model X, isn't it? I don't think model X has been well received by public as of now. Is TM still not sure of some model X spec. or not confident to showcase a real production car?

I think it has more to do with it being in the anti-Tesla state of Michigan:

Diarmuid O’Connell, Tesla’s vice president of business development, told the Automotive Press Association on Nov. 20 that he was not aware of plans to participate in the Detroit show. "If you are trying to sell cars, it makes sense," he said. "But in Michigan we can't legally sell cars."

 

[mmd]

Don't forget that the new income cut-off since July will prevent some CA Model S buyers from claiming the rebate: Rich Are Officially Cut Off From California’s Electric Vehicle Rebates

That is not correct. I received this email from Tesla on Oct 22, titled "California rebate update", which says the change takes efffect in 2016. See image below. I would think, Tesla knows this better than us

 

[AlMc]

Tesla CA rebate status till Nov 20. Not particularly impressive. insideevs estimates 3200 US+Canada deliveries for November. Could be backend heavy deliveries.

CVRP Rebate Statistics | Clean Vehicle Rebate Project

View attachment 103068

Not sure we can read too much into ^^ this^^. I see TM delivery outside NA markets in November and pushing only to NA in December.

As to skipping the NAIAS: I can read positive and negatives into this one....effect: neutral on TSLA.

 

[maoing]

are you sure? The model X production rate should ramp up to 1k/week quickly, so potential model X delivery should shoot for 40K if demand is sufficient. current backlog is far below that level.

X production is sold out for most of next year already, why would Tesla need to do anything?

- - - Updated - - -

That could be reasonable explanation. Did thing change in past 12 months? Tesla did go to Detroit in past years.

The article says they can't sell in Michigan, so why go there? Tesla is going to beat Detroit at their own game anyway...

 

[JRP3]

We don't know the current backlog, and once more X's actually start shipping, and getting great reviews, that will further drive demand.

 

[FredTMC]

Not sure we can read too much into ^^ this^^. I see TM delivery outside NA markets in November and pushing only to NA in December.

As to skipping the NAIAS: I can read positive and negatives into this one....effect: neutral on TSLA.

yep and yep

 

[MikeC]

That could be reasonable explanation. Did thing change in past 12 months? Tesla did go to Detroit in past years.

It changed a little over 13 months ago: Gov. Snyder signs bill banning direct Tesla sales

I stand corrected about the CA rebate limit, you're right it hasn't taken effect yet: Fiscal Year 2015-16 Income Limit Changes | Clean Vehicle Rebate Project

 

[madodel]

It changed a little over 13 months ago: Gov. Snyder signs bill banning direct Tesla sales

Tesla should hold an event across the border in Canada, maybe drag racing a Model X against some Detroit cars.

 

[chickensevil]

A lot of potential buyers are still sitting on the fence until they can touch and test drive the car. A lot of spec. still not clear to many reservation holders.

Which is why they will be putting X's in stores sooner rather than later. But that has nothing to do with them sticking a pure marketing/show car at Detroit. People will get nothing of value on clearing up the X for them that they couldn't get already by watching the reveal event posted on their website.

The Detroit show is free marketing generation and nothing more. They don't need it so they aren't going.