Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[sub]

I just enjoy trolling the trolls. One of the few pleasures of Internet.

Moving forward I'm going to stop trying to respond to them, it's difficult, but every time someone challenges their ridiculous points we are called "cheerleaders". I have a general opinion on Tesla and Elon and that is that they are sticking to their plan within reason and have not proven themselves to be untrustworthy. Does Elon get overly optimistic? Yes, but I don't see that as a negative and having read the recent book you can see that is just his personality. Therefore, trading shorter term can bite you sometimes but the long game is still in tact and getting better every quarter. This is why I had some optimism on Q4 guidance, Elon just said they would make 50-55k 3 months ago and I felt they would have a pretty good idea at that point on Q4.

I don't own a Tesla but I invested immediately after my first test drive in early 2013, it was an easy decision that has paid off handsomely. The shorts are clearly biased and can't see the forest for the trees, which I find interesting and also disappointing at the same time.

I'll let things settle down for a week before deciding if I want to add to my position, I've already got cash tied up in TSLA that wasn't intended to be so it's hard to add more right now.

 

[Scott Ales]

Slight move upward in the last few minutes. In the past it has taken quite a while for good news to convert to buy orders.

- - - Updated - - -

Is everyone cheering it on?

 

[anon]

Slight move upward in the last few minutes. In the past it has taken quite a while for good news to convert to buy orders.

Absolutely. I can certainly remember previous occasions where it took a couple of weeks for things to settle in after the ER and then suddenly the stock shot up on no new news.

 

[hobbes]

Analysts across the board don't seem particularly impressed, with a lot of commentary on the risk remaining in the X ramp. I haven't seen any price target increases from the big-name firms.

Sorry if this has been posted before, too much to keep up at the moment:

Evercore ISI raised its price target on Tesla to 320 from 310 and maintained its buy rating on the stock.

Tesla Price Target Hiked; SolarWinds, HP See Action TSLA HPQ NFLX - Investors.com

 

[Citizen-T]

For those wondering about the pause at $230. The Bulls and Bears are just playing tug over the 200-day. Looks like the bears are starting to tire though; they are running out of ammunition, if you don't mind me mixing metaphors.

 

[hobbes]

Close to $2B in dollar volume today, 2nd only to Apple, 1st for those in the green. Anyone know the largest single day dollar and share volume to date?

My favourite search engine says:

tsla trading volume times share priceWolfram|Alpha Clip 'n Share

tsla trading volume - Wolfram|Alpha

 

[Kalud]

TSLA goes to eleven (%) today

 

[AudubonB]

Hobbes: Am I reading your linked reference correctly, in that it appears there were a total of $2.804bn of TSLA traded today? That has to be a lot even by, say, an AAPL yardstick.

 

[hobbes]

Hobbes: Am I reading your linked reference correctly, in that it appears there were a total of $2.804bn of TSLA traded today? That has to be a lot even by, say, an AAPL yardstick.

Just cross checked with data from nasdaq.com which confirms 2.8 billion.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Is this a possible scenario?


1) Volkswagen sets aside $50 - $100 billion to compensate anyone who purchased a vehicle involved in this fiasco.
2) Volkswagen files for bankruptcy protection
3) Volkswagen rids itself of of its "toxic assets"
4) Volkswagen partners with Tesla Motors, merges with Tesla Motors, to sells its assets to Tesla, to accelerate the release and ramp up for the Model 3, and perhaps other vehicles, to prevent the automobile industry from experiencing a very awkward shock wave.

Lower Saxony owns 20% of Volkswagen, and has warned that there will be consequences for this mess.

Lower Saxony Premier Warns Consequences May Follow From VW Probe - Bloomberg Business

Note: The Prime Minister of Lower Saxony drives a Tesla.

Interesting read.

VW’s culture has been blamed for fostering dysfunction but the company’s politics may hinder change

 

[CHGolferJim]

Please, no! Corporate integrations are a nightmare and require the complete opposite skills of ramping up a hyper-growth company. Maybe a limited asset purchase?

 

[FluxCap]

Please, no! Corporate integrations are a nightmare and require the complete opposite skills of ramping up a hyper-growth company. Maybe a limited asset purchase?

Agreed. There is simply no benefit to Tesla merging or being acquired by any other company on the planet right now. In 10 years? Maybe it would make sense for Tesla to buy the assets of near-bankrupt legacy auto companies. But now? Nope.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Agreed. There is simply no benefit to Tesla merging or being acquired by any other company on the planet right now. In 10 years? Maybe it would make sense for Tesla to buy the assets of near-bankrupt legacy auto companies. But now? Nope.

Well, Tesla already did it once when they bought the Fremont factory at a bargain basement price. Maybe some VW factories will need to be sold in a hurry sometime down the road!

 

[RyanT]

I was thinking about this ER and if they had revised guidance to say 48k cars instead we would probably have went negative. Those 3k cars made the difference of 2 billion+ in market cap. Not that I'm complaining, but it does seem odd the little things that can make or break a ER.

 

[Lessmog]

Well, Tesla already did it once when they bought the Fremont factory at a bargain basement price. Maybe some VW factories will need to be sold in a hurry sometime down the road!

Good thinking! Skoda is near no harbours afaik. What about Mexico? Brazil?
Scania heavy vehicles was bought by VW last year and has loyal, first class employees and facilities in many parts of the world. Södertälje to São Paolo to China to name a few off the top of my head ...

 

[Robbo]

Hobbes: Am I reading your linked reference correctly, in that it appears there were a total of $2.804bn of TSLA traded today? That has to be a lot even by, say, an AAPL yardstick.

Today's $ value (per Bloomberg):

1. AAPL $5.5BB
2. FB 4.4
3. GE 3.2
4. AMZN 3.1
5. TSLA 2.8
6. DIS 2.3
7. MSFT 2.0
8. NFLX 1.9
9. TWX 1.8
10. GOOGL 1.6

 

[Scott Ales]

I was thinking about this ER and if they had revised guidance to say 48k cars instead we would probably have went negative. Those 3k cars made the difference of 2 billion+ in market cap. Not that I'm complaining, but it does seem odd the little things that can make or break a ER.

I think you are absolutely correct! I wouldn't blame them if the staged a conversion to a private company that has been presented here before. That would really be incredible. Then absolutely no one would have a clue about the plan and how it was unfolding. Wouldn't do much for us investors but it would be cool!

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Some nice positive price action today (someone already mentioned "goes up to 11" in reference to the 11% gain) :smile:

The next few months will be critical to maintaining the momentum. If Tesla meets guidance and ramps up Model X as promised, this stock will be going upwards in January. The strong execution on Model S deliveries and Autopilot are a promising start. The sizzle is starting to turn into steak. Lets hope that Tesla delivers a lot of steak soon. I am reading the Model X forums daily to see how things are progressing.

 

[dalalsid]

Agreed. There is simply no benefit to Tesla merging or being acquired by any other company on the planet right now. In 10 years? Maybe it would make sense for Tesla to buy the assets of near-bankrupt legacy auto companies. But now? Nope.

The only good thing that can possibly come out of auto maker bankruptcies for Tesla could be some discounted factories. Anything else is not worth tarnishing the Tesla brand for.

 

[AlMc]

Some nice positive price action today (someone already mentioned "goes up to 11" in reference to the 11% gain) :smile:

The next few months will be critical to maintaining the momentum. If Tesla meets guidance and ramps up Model X as promised, this stock will be going upwards in January. The strong execution on Model S deliveries and Autopilot are a promising start. The sizzle is starting to turn into steak. Lets hope that Tesla delivers a lot of steak soon. I am reading the Model X forums daily to see how things are progressing.

Yes, please...More steak:biggrin:...................I was happiest with the CC. I liked the confident but not the 'hyperbole' EM.....