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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

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#16,562
I plan on making a reservation. It will be the first new car I will have ever purchased ( I am currently leasing a new Leaf, but that is only because of the now cancelled $5,000 GA tax credit). I hope the reservation deposit is around $2,000 - $2,500. More than that, and I'm not gonna be happy about it sitting there for two to three years. Less than that, and the bears won't think the deposit is enough for buyers to be serious. I would be cool with the auction idea as well.
 
#16,563
Gtoffo said:
:scared: Mitch..... 500 dollar strike options? I don't think those even exist! Be realistic and prudent out there guys.............. The days of TSLA exploding like that are over. Trade accordingly.
Click to expand...

Hi,

Thank you for your concern.

I don't expect Tesla to reach $500.

I read this post by usslesslogin:
TSLA Trading Strategies - Page 60

And came up with this strategy (scroll down for my thoughts about buying high strike price Leaps):
TSLA Trading Strategies - Page 62

I think I elaborated downtrend. If you still think it's a bad idea and want to explain why in that thread I'd appreciate it.
 
#16,564
I think instead of paying for reservations Tesla should require that buyers purchase options for TSLA shares, something like 15-25 shares. I think they should sell the shares at a discount of about ten percent less than the current price, but not vest the shares until the buyer completed the purchase.

Tesla could raise a substantial amount of cash by doing that, the buyers would make some money on their deposit and they would feel invested in the company.
 
#16,566
As it's a pretty boring day here is some short term thread OT content (sorry):
2015-11-12-Tesla-Volkswagen-AirFilter.png


I still wonder if we see the $180s soon before the $280s or are we in the middle of a bottoming process here?
 
#16,568
MitchJi said:
I think instead of paying for reservations Tesla should require that buyers purchase options for TSLA shares, something like 15-25 shares. I think they should sell the shares at a discount of about ten percent less than the current price, but not vest the shares until the buyer completed the purchase.

Tesla could raise a substantial amount of cash by doing that, the buyers would make some money on their deposit and they would feel invested in the company.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure if this will be legal. Customer deposits are liabilities. And the cash Tesla gets will be the same either way. What happens if stock price goes lower, and some customers want a refund? Will they get a smaller refund than their deposit? When a company issues shares, the shareholders understand the risk they are taking.
I'm not a lawyer, but this (and the other idea of auctioning off position in queue) seem like grey areas to me. Any precedence of such things in the auto industry?
 
#16,570
I think instead of paying for reservations Tesla should require that buyers purchase options for TSLA shares, something like 15-25 shares. I think they should sell the shares at a discount of about ten percent less than the current price, but not vest the shares until the buyer completed the purchase.
Click to expand...
mmd said:
I'm not sure if this will be legal. Customer deposits are liabilities. And the cash Tesla gets will be the same either way. What happens if stock price goes lower, and some customers want a refund? Will they get a smaller refund than their deposit? When a company issues shares, the shareholders understand the risk they are taking.

I'm not a lawyer, but this (and the other idea of auctioning off position in queue) seem like grey areas to me. Any precedence of such things in the auto industry?
Click to expand...
I'm not sure about the legality. My idea was that you would be required to take your cash back unless you completed your purchase, to prevent people from signing up, immediately canceling and selling the stock for a profit. They could structure it like an employee benefit. They could have the option to buy the shares at whichever price is lower. either 10-15% less than the price when the buyer made the reservation, or 10-15% less than the price when the buyer completed the purchase. How much excitement and enthusiasm do you think would be generated if the SP was $250 (minus a 10-15% discount) when the first group of buyers made their and they could sell their shares for $350 to help fund their purchases.

I think the idea auctioning off positions in queue is really a bad idea. I think it would seem greedy. I also think it would upset a lot of people.

techmaven said:
Of course, each new battery chemistry will have to be evaluated by itself. The battery chemistry in the original Volt are distinctly different than the ones going into the Bolt.
Click to expand...
Double standard! How many times has Tesla changed their battery chemistry? I think the Volt is on their 3rd revision (any problems?).
Forbes Welcome
Tesla's recent change:
The energy density improvement is possible without the need to increase the physical size of the battery pack. That’s because the lithium-ion battery cells now uses silicon for part of its anode, Musk said. Lithium-ion battery cells typically use graphite for anode. Lots of research has looked into the benefit of using silicon for the anode because silicon can hold a lot more lithium ions. But it also can expand so much that it fractures and becomes unstable.
Click to expand...
Both GM (LG announced their new chemistry in 2014 and GM has been testing them for at least two years) and Tesla rigorously test new chemistries before introducing them.
Design News - News - LG Chem Aims for Affordable, Long-Range Battery by 2017
7/28/2014
Battery maker LG Chem Power Inc. plans to offer a new cell chemistry that could serve as the foundation for an affordable electric car with a 200-mile driving range by 2017.
Click to expand...

Further, the original Volt had a very large set-aside of unused capacity that they cannot afford to do in the Bolt if they want to get over 200 miles of EPA range.
Click to expand...
Yes, very large (extremely conservative) set-aside (about a 25%).

How do you know that they cannot afford to do that with the Bolt? Some very rough calculations:
GM announced Cell costs at $!45 per kWh. Let's assume a pack cost of $200 per kWh. The 1st gen Volts had a capacity of (before the set-aside) of 16 kWh, with a range of roughly 40 miles. So four Volt sized (capacity) packs would cost about $13k and drive a Volt 160 miles. Make the Bolt 25% smaller and lighter and bingo.


Also, the details are sketchy on the thermal management system used in the Bolt which can have a significant impact on battery life. We will see.
Click to expand...
My impression when I read about GM's Volt pack development was that they were almost paranoid (extremely conservative) about battery life. The range will probably be marginal, but there are zero reasons to doubt the Bolt packs cycle life. In fact if concerns about pack life are driving your decision I think a Bolt will probably be a better choice than an M3.
 
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#16,575
M3 deposit should be large enough and non-refundable to prevent anyone from cancelling because the car is delayed by several months or much pricier than promised. I am thinking $5K to $10$, either non-refundable or a 50% cancellation fee. The Bolt will be in dealerships at least 18 or 24 months before the M3 deliveries begin to reservation holders. It will be several thousand cheaper too (compliance car for CAFE/CARB purposes, subsidized by massively profitable fullsize pickups and fullsize SUVs sales). Tesla shouldn't allow tens of thousands of reservation holders cancelling their reservations and buying the Bolt because they are impatient or don't want to pay $10K more than planned. A large enough non-refundable deposit should prevent this scenario.
 
#16,577
MonroeSS said:
M3 deposit should be large enough and non-refundable to prevent anyone from cancelling because the car is delayed by several months or much pricier than promised.
Click to expand...
That would be a 180 degree shift in one of their core strategies which is to succeed by making compelling cars. If you don't believe they can continue to do that maybe you should invest in GM instead of TSLA.

What makes you think that the car will be much pricier than promised?

IMO any (probably minimal delays) won't matter, because it will take them at least a year or two, probably longer to catch up with demand.
 
#16,578
MonroeSS said:
M3 deposit should be large enough and non-refundable to prevent anyone from cancelling because the car is delayed by several months or much pricier than promised. I am thinking $5K to $10$, either non-refundable or a 50% cancellation fee. The Bolt will be in dealerships at least 18 or 24 months before the M3 deliveries begin to reservation holders. It will be several thousand cheaper too (compliance car for CAFE/CARB purposes, subsidized by massively profitable fullsize pickups and fullsize SUVs sales). Tesla shouldn't allow tens of thousands of reservation holders cancelling their reservations and buying the Bolt because they are impatient or don't want to pay $10K more than planned. A large enough non-refundable deposit should prevent this scenario.
Click to expand...

Have you seen pictures of the Bolt? I don't think many people who want a Tesla will be buying a Bolt. That is like saying if there is a delay in the iPhone people will buy a Blackberry.
 
#16,579
Is this story part of the reason why TSLA tanked going in to the close. Appears to be completely false, so if it contributed we should correct upwards tomorrow (assuming macro does not tank again). Really, the Danish Tax Minister should apologize for making such unfounded allegations.

Is Tesla Scheming To Manipulate Tax Laws?


http://www.forbes.com/sites/kellyph...-laws/?utm_campaign=yahootix&partner=yahootix

Update:

So the Danish Tax Minster falsely claims that Tesla bought 2,500 of its own cars; Tesla clarifies the situation and the Danish Tax Minister acknowledges his mistake; yet Forbes still writes a story implying Tesla is cheating on taxes. Unbelievable. What absurd reporting. :cursing:
 
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#16,580
mdemetri said:
Is this story part of the reason why TSLA tanked going in to the close. Appears to be completely false, so if it contributed we should correct upwards tomorrow (assuming macro does not tank again). Really, the Danish Tax Minister should apologize for making such unfounded allegations.

Is Tesla Scheming To Manipulate Tax Laws?


http://www.forbes.com/sites/kellyph...-laws/?utm_campaign=yahootix&partner=yahootix

Update:

So the Danish Tax Minster falsely claims that Tesla bought 2,500 of its own cars; Tesla clarifies the situation and the Danish Tax Minister acknowledges his mistake; yet Forbes still writes a story implying Tesla is cheating on taxes. Unbelievable. What absurd reporting. :cursing:
Click to expand...

We have some discussions on this in the EU market thread. There is also an SA article out today. There seems to be some truth to the story, as Tesla rep in Denmark agrees that soneone in Tesla ordered 2500 plates. Whether it was to evade tax, I don't know.Please see the links in hobbes' post and replies to it.
EU Market Situation and Outlook - Page 166
 
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