Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[aznt1217]

Gloomy here in Florida this morning.
Pre-Market down too.
Looks and feels like a rough TSLA day.

I have to wonder....

If EM is so disengaged from the stock value, why rush to meet his self imposed deadline on the MX launch then go dark on the ramp up? Why not just wait till you're ready to fire it all up at the same time?

He's disengaged from the day to day fluctuations for the most part, but the model X was one of the operational milestones for an options tranche for options compensation (that i suspect applies to others who receive options as well). They "go dark" because they are too busy cranking them out. That's been my theory last year and the year before that for Model S. I suspect they are doing things at an extremely high rate after they brought seat production in house. Notice the seat options on the design studio got cut down. It's textile, black leather, and performance color variants. Looks like they are optimizing their supply chain

 

[Irishjugg]

Is this story part of the reason why TSLA tanked going in to the close. Appears to be completely false, so if it contributed we should correct upwards tomorrow (assuming macro does not tank again). Really, the Danish Tax Minister should apologize for making such unfounded allegations.

Is Tesla Scheming To Manipulate Tax Laws?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kellyph...-laws/?utm_campaign=yahootix&partner=yahootix


No. Tesla tanked as it is an overpriced stock with a ridiculous multiple AND MOST IMPORTANTLY it looks like we are entering into a very bearish period for the market. Once this thing breaks 202.00 (likely first thing in the am) it will be a cascade down into the 180s. Putting this out there for the dreamers who can't afford to play russian roulette. Whether this new story is true or not, I simply don't trust Musk's direction any longer. I will be right on this. Mark my words. No position long or short. Good luck to the $450.00 dollar crowd. You are good people.

Yeah I mean, try try again right? You have been predicting this incorrectly for a few months, based on no days and your personal feelings about the ceo. Just so you know, at this point if that does happen to the price, you won't have been "correct" just a blind squirrel that got lucky that day.

 

[jbdoom]

Stifel is updating its model on Tesla Motors (Nasdaq: TSLA) following a review of the company's 10-Q filing.Analyst James Albertine commented, TSLA remains a formidable automotive manufacturer creating compelling luxury electric vehicles that will span price points, in our view, while remaining early in realizing benefits from stationary storage and its Gigafactory. Our estimates and our valuation outlook reflect a company that should continue to positively disrupt the automotive and utility sectors, unearthing demand for electric vehicles and energy storage that legacy competition has overlooked or otherwise dismissed in its history.
Looking at potential risks, in addition to a highly complex production ramp for the Model X, we are hearing growing concerns from our colleagues with respect to softening luxury spending and reduced high income consumer sentiment as of late. This is consistent with commentary from our luxury automotive retail coverage amid weaker than expected 3Q15 results (primarily in the northeast U.S.). Based on TSLA commentary (and perhaps its scale given the ongoing demand/supply imbalance), we do not believe management is witnessing the same slowdown (at this point) in demand for the Model S sedan or Model X crossover utility . However, we continue to monitor the global luxury consumer closely to the extent that reduced sentiment negatively impacts TSLA sales/orders.
Albertine trims his Q415 EPS estimate from $0.65 to $0.23 and widens his FY15 loss estimate from $0.67 to $1.13 per share. FY16 EPS outlook moves from $1.64 to $1.89, with the analyst noting that Model X sales and energy storage gains bolstering top-line results.
Stifel has a Buy rating and $400 price target on Tesla, both unchanged with today's assessment.

From Stifel.

 

[aznt1217]

From Stifel.[/FONT][/COLOR]

Not a bad note I suppose. The softening of spending on Luxury Goods is a fair point, but here's what I think is interesting. Luxury goods doesn't always apply to such Durable goods. A person who turns in a lease on their GL63 isn't going to go and lease a Toyota RAV4. Just not going to happen. Aside from the fact that the cars are sold out for the foreseeable future, its value proposition is quite good for both the X and S for those who are in the market for an SUV or large Sedan because operating costs are low and pay off in the long run as opposed to other vehicles. Even so, we know there is an arguably huge backlog for Tesla Energy products (especially Powerpacks) which is what is so beautiful about the outlook. Even in a downturn, they're still going to sell these like hot cakes as companies improve their CSR initiatives and invest in greener, more cost efficient technology such as stationary storage.

I think that all of this is being driven because the market is pricing in a rate hike which has implications for everybody. Tesla is just amplifying it as usual and it doesn't help that mum's the word.

 

[Scott Ales]

Just received this newsletter via email. Hope it's okay to post it here. The production video is well done. Model S Model X Supercharger Powerwall

Introducing Autopilot Autopilot will revolutionize your commute. We designed Autopilot to give you more confidence behind the wheel, increase your safety on the road, and make tedious everyday driving a thing of the past. Using cameras, radar and ultrasonic sensors, Autopilot takes the stress of stop-start traffic away by steering, changing lanes and adjusting speed for you. It will even parallel park if you ask it to. While truly driverless cars are still a few years away, Tesla Autopilot functions like the systems that airplane pilots use when conditions are clear. The driver is still responsible for, and ultimately in control of, the car. You always have intuitive access to the information your car is using to inform its actions on the touchscreen. It’s not just our new Autopilot features that will change your drive forever. With our all-wheel drive, dual motor model specification, Model S provides superior control while actually improving both range and acceleration, even in tough winter conditions. To experience these groundbreaking features in action, schedule a test drive today. TEST DRIVE FIND OUT MORE Referral Program Update Our experimental Referral Program was incredibly successful and we’re now pleased to announce the launch of a new Referral Program that will extend to the end of 2015. From now through December 31st, if someone buys a new Model S using your referral code they will get $1,000 off the purchase price. As a thank you to our most active supporters, Tesla has developed unique offers including a tour of the Gigafactory in Nevada, an invitation to the Model 3 unveiling and even a free Model S P90D with Ludicrous mode. Find full details on the program below. You can access your referral code through your MyTesla account (or your Tesla app). PROGRAM INFO MY TESLA Tesla Reliability and Service Close communication between customers, service, and engineering enables us to receive feedback, proactively address concerns and quickly fix issues. Customer feedback in the last three years has helped us increase the reliability of our charging equipment and infotainment system, reduce braking noise and improve the fit and finish of the Model S interior. In the last 12 months alone we’ve decreased reliability issues by half, and improvements have been made at no cost to our owners. If hardware does need to be fixed, we strive to make it painless through our four-year/50,000-mile bumper-to-bumper warranty (and eight-year/unlimited mileage battery and drivetrain warranty). Even if potential issues have a low likelihood of causing future problems, we fix them. It's why 97% of Tesla owners expect their next car to be a Tesla. To our owners we say: Thank you. Uncovering and resolving quality and reliability issues on an ongoing basis will allow us to continue to innovate and drive to accomplish our mission of a renewable transportation future. Our customer stories offer the most compelling reviews of what life with a Tesla is really like: SERVICE FROM YOUR OFFICE THREE YEARS WITH MODEL S The State of the Art Tesla Factory Our production facility in Fremont, California, spans 5.3 million square feet, or the equivalent of 90 indoor football fields. Robots, over 800 in total, dominate the body assembly area. We named them after X-Men characters because of their superhero-like abilities. Wolverine and Iceman have a large range of motion to lift cars onto the overhead platform. Xavier and Beast grab cars from an overhead electrified rail and place them gently on the floor below. Storm and Colossus can be found at the end of the chassis line moving cars to the buffering area while Polaris and Havok apply Urethane to the front and rear glass. The factory is also home to five press lines capable of stamping an aluminum body panel every five seconds. Quality control is paramount. Our Coordinate Measuring Machines taking accurate readings to 5/1000ths of a millimeter (5 microns) for quality control. At every stage, we use optical and laser scanning as well as trained human eyes. Each station checks the work of the previous station in real time. The most innovative cars in the world come from our world-class facility.Watch our production line in action.

 

[farzyness]

Wanted to post the below story from TD thinkorswim that just popped up:

These news articles are becoming more and more reminiscent of the times when the Model S was first released. I don't know how any reputable source can, with a straight face, say that Tesla is losing its edge on software capabilities, especially when a couple weeks ago Tesla uploaded Autopilot to its fleet of cars.

Just my 2c.

 

[ggies07]

Wanted to post the below story from TD thinkorswim that just popped up:

View attachment 100944

These news articles are becoming more and more reminiscent of the times when the Model S was first released. I don't know how any reputable source can, with a straight face, say that Tesla is losing its edge on software capabilities, especially when a couple weeks ago Tesla uploaded Autopilot to its fleet of cars.

Just my 2c.

Yes, that software comment is about the dumbest thing an analyst could say. Thanks for posting though, good to know what's being put out there....

 

[aznt1217]

Yes, that software comment is about the dumbest thing an analyst could say. Thanks for posting though, good to know what's being put out there....

Oh man. Bears should short this to make money. This is legit free money for them. I needed a laugh this morning... I have no idea how this qualifies as news and I think this analyst is way overpaid.

 

[Scott Ales]

Wanted to post the below story from TD thinkorswim that just popped up:

View attachment 100944

These news articles are becoming more and more reminiscent of the times when the Model S was first released. I don't know how any reputable source can, with a straight face, say that Tesla is losing its edge on software capabilities, especially when a couple weeks ago Tesla uploaded Autopilot to its fleet of cars.

Just my 2c.

I suppose it's just human nature, the same as people who go to a car race to see a crash. Not necessarily who won the race!

 

[aznt1217]

I suppose it's just human nature, the same as people who go to a car race to see a crash. Not necessarily who won the race!

Incredibly misleading as well. It makes it seem like there's going to be 0 internally generated cash. It's taking forward spending based on current negative cash intake levels. Either the reporter or the note is off.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Small battle currently at $210.
Looks like there is still some selling pressure

 

[electracity]

Yes, that software comment is about the dumbest thing an analyst could say. Thanks for posting though, good to know what's being put out there....

It is more people realizing that Tesla is not really working on autonomous driving. Not that Tesla doesn't have a long term autonomous strategy.

 

[Discoducky]

snip

It is more people realizing that Tesla is not really working on autonomous driving

You write this like it is a fact, but I'll let you say what your intent was.

 

[aznt1217]

snip

You write this like it is a fact, but I'll let you say what your intent was.

I thought it was sarcasm... he was serious?

Anyway, Short figures are out it went up interestingly enough as of 10/30 though.

Also noteworthy is we're back to pre-earnings levels with people placing bets on Q4 at this time. Technically the stock is broken as we're under a lot of the MA's.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Looks like shorts have their party rigth now.
SP now below $210.
Looks like everybody running for the exits.

 

[austinEV]

The author is so weak using this title. We used to have a questionable dealer at the wholesale auto auctions who would use a line like this. If he had a BMW 740iL selling on the block that did NOT have a Sport package, he would yell out to the bidders crowd, "Wait! Wait! Is this car a Sport package?" All the while knowing it did not have the option.

It's like writing a article with a title, "Did GM cancel the Bolt?" Then digress into the fact that the project is still on track. I would be uncomfortable showing my face as the author.

Any headline with a question mark can be answered "no". Mentally, whenever you see one of these headlines, just say "hmmm, the answer is 'no'" and move on.

Betteridge's law of headlines - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Drax7]

It is more people realizing that Tesla is not really working on autonomous driving. Not that Tesla doesn't have a long term autonomous strategy.

Thats your assertion with the intent to misinform .

Mobileyes ceo talks about working closely with tesla.

 

[Krugerrand]

It is more people realizing that Tesla is not really working on autonomous driving.

Going to need a source if you expect anyone to believe that.

 

[FluxCap]

This is looking tastier and tastier for adding to my holdings.

 

[Irishjugg]

This is looking tastier and tastier for adding to my holdings.

Same, getting very juicy. Now to go find a few thousand dollars to free up. I need to roll over an old 401k anyway, why not roll most of it into tsla at 200/share. Yes please.