mejojo
Active Member
Wow...I had NO appreciation for how much larger the X is than the S. That photo is stunning.
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Wow...I had NO appreciation for how much larger the X is than the S. That photo is stunning.
Just found some comments on Reddit. Apparently it's still December delivery for California.
gsxdsm comments on teslamotors.com changed the updated delivery estimate of Model S from Late December to January.
Then again, a couple LA members are reporting a feb delivery date being given in the website wait times thread. Weird.
I just checked and it's giving me February for all model variants in Chicago. Wonder what happened to January? Will January be a massive model x push? I suppose this could support my earlier theory where q4 deliveries are reported as almost solely s and then strong January x focus would allow them to report strong s demand, meeting guidance and substantial progress on the x ramp on the earnings call.
I can say that's how I'd play it if I were looking to jump up the price in anticipation of a capital raise in early 2016...
I can say that's how I'd play it if I were looking to jump up the price in anticipation of a capital raise in early 2016...
Scott Ales
Member
Me too, pretty simple really. You have 10 times the demand for a higher average profit product. Not to mention the impact of getting the X out there. Just like the S, no one really knows the car exists until it is seen on the road.
I suspect a large percentage of January Model S production will be destined for Asia and for Europe to ensure delivery in Q1 and to help make up for the lack of December production going to those destinations.
Model S will still have an advantage of speed compared to the production of Model X in the early part of Q1, and for this reason I suspect Tesla will produce a fair number of Model S vehicles in Q1. As the speed of Model X production picks up, the percentage of vehicles on the assembly line will skew towards Model X until it is the dominant vehicle under production.
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ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Have you been able to catch if the side badges of the Model X are for a Founders or for a Signature series vehicle?
In case anyone is interested, the short term price seems to be moving.
On a similar note, for the record I called the bottom on November 13th 2015. We may get a creaky start while the market figures it out but my opinion is that the 2016 rally has commenced (and did commence) on that date. The reason for this IMO is a repeat of the transition from the 2012 Model S pre-production spend to the 2013 commencement of production sales revenues.
There are a whole lot of bears and shorts out there who are hung up on the idea that Tesla's 2015 Model X pre-production spend somehow represented Model S business underperformance and that will somehow translate to Model X business underperformance - even though anyone might think such a notion too stupid to be credible in the eyes of anyone old enough to shave. Yet 27 million shares sold short stand as testimony to that level of thinking.
Naturally the business will deliver results that are diametrically opposed to the expectations of the shorts. Model X will be additive to the success of the Model S. Model S success will be unmasked from Model X spend and Tesla Energy success will be additive to all of the above. In my three years of looking closely at this business and its stock what I can say is that meeting the expectations of well informed Longs moves the meter but not a lot. Upsetting the shorts on the other hand is where the big bucks is at and there will be tears in Shortsville to rival the Mississippi for the coming 6-9 months and around about now would be the time to anticipate that.
On a side note for the very short term. I would expect Tesla / Elon to deliver interim guidance on Q4 deliveries possibly as soon as today but relatively likely before the end of the month to confirm that they are well clear of the 17,000 Q4 total and possibly clear of the 19,000. Perhaps such an announcement will be delayed to coincide with a successful completion of the next SpaceX launch. Recall Musk's words regards 2015 delivery totals: "A Win Should Feel Like A Win". Clearly the entire Tesla organization has taken up that call to arms and is going nuts to feel that win - on that score alone it is my view that the shorts are a festive turkey shoot ripe to donate Tesla's staff Christmas bonuses i.e. Musk won't wait for 3rd Jan to smash the $6+ billion short-interest pinata. In fact it could well be a 1 - 2 punch. 1. Interim guidance Dec 2015: Yes we cleared the 17,000 comfortably. 2. (3rd Jan): Guess what, we actually cleared 19,000.
Enjoy.
On a similar note, for the record I called the bottom on November 13th 2015. We may get a creaky start while the market figures it out but my opinion is that the 2016 rally has commenced (and did commence) on that date. The reason for this IMO is a repeat of the transition from the 2012 Model S pre-production spend to the 2013 commencement of production sales revenues.
There are a whole lot of bears and shorts out there who are hung up on the idea that Tesla's 2015 Model X pre-production spend somehow represented Model S business underperformance and that will somehow translate to Model X business underperformance - even though anyone might think such a notion too stupid to be credible in the eyes of anyone old enough to shave. Yet 27 million shares sold short stand as testimony to that level of thinking.
Naturally the business will deliver results that are diametrically opposed to the expectations of the shorts. Model X will be additive to the success of the Model S. Model S success will be unmasked from Model X spend and Tesla Energy success will be additive to all of the above. In my three years of looking closely at this business and its stock what I can say is that meeting the expectations of well informed Longs moves the meter but not a lot. Upsetting the shorts on the other hand is where the big bucks is at and there will be tears in Shortsville to rival the Mississippi for the coming 6-9 months and around about now would be the time to anticipate that.
On a side note for the very short term. I would expect Tesla / Elon to deliver interim guidance on Q4 deliveries possibly as soon as today but relatively likely before the end of the month to confirm that they are well clear of the 17,000 Q4 total and possibly clear of the 19,000. Perhaps such an announcement will be delayed to coincide with a successful completion of the next SpaceX launch. Recall Musk's words regards 2015 delivery totals: "A Win Should Feel Like A Win". Clearly the entire Tesla organization has taken up that call to arms and is going nuts to feel that win - on that score alone it is my view that the shorts are a festive turkey shoot ripe to donate Tesla's staff Christmas bonuses i.e. Musk won't wait for 3rd Jan to smash the $6+ billion short-interest pinata. In fact it could well be a 1 - 2 punch. 1. Interim guidance Dec 2015: Yes we cleared the 17,000 comfortably. 2. (3rd Jan): Guess what, we actually cleared 19,000.
Enjoy.
sub
Active Member
Oh no, someone better notify Tesla they will need some Lithium for the factory and they better get on it. :wink:
Funny how everything is sourced with a name until the very juicy part... About no one willing to meet Tesla's price demands is attributed to anonymous analysts. The next comment about Tesla not being the biggest piece of the pie is again anonymous. The report goes on to say that the three biggest suppliers essentially gave them no comment. So the entire juice of the article is attributed to anonymous sources. Finally, the calculation on lithium required, if accurate, is a full Gigafactory number, not for each phase.
Did they forget that Panasonic has existing supplier contracts?
Well, the Lithium supply issue is real. Tesla's announced deals are indeed with junior mining companies that have yet to produce anything. That Tesla was on the verge of buying a mining company is telling - it would mean they haven't figured out how to get Lithium cheaply any other way. One thing I don't know is how much of the cell cost Lithium represents. It may not matter much if Tesla has to buy Lithium at market prices.
Well, cobalt, nickel, and aluminum pricing has plummeted. Lithium isn't traded the same way and so pricing is hard to verify. Hence these lithium consulting firms get to drum up some business with an article like this.
Meh. This is just a story about a small number of large lithium producers that were hopeful of a price fixing bonanza at Tesla's expense and now they are sore that Tesla has no intention of playing ball. Nothing to see here except evidence of exquisite management foresight and exemplary leverage of first mover advantage on the part of Tesla. An expectation of management excellence even on this scale is priced in.
Scott Ales
Member
I agree. Just think of the myriad of bullet points Tesla has brought in house when others dropped the ball.
Like MX pedestal seats. Who ever had that contract made a huge mistake in not meeting the schedule and production needs.
And the company has shown it is very effective at raising capitol to bring anything under roof which furthers the mission.
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