erha
Member
I have a feeling that the consensus here is that the members of this forum had an edge over the market before, but now everything is not as clear. Before we were able to look at the VINs and predict a beat, while the street had no idea until the quarterly report was released. Even though the VINs are not as great an estimate anymore, I still think we have an edge.
I'm thinking back to the time when TSLA was trading in the range between $30 and $40. TSLA was the first stock I bought back in early 2012 (I was 19 at the time). As time went by I couldn't understand how the price was still stuck below $40, even though it seemed the company was making huge progress. I bought more shares. The model S was released and the reviews were great. The backlog of order was (apperently) huge. I bought more shares again. Looking back I think I was somewhat lucky and didn't understand the full risk this company was facing. The share price didn't surge until they released profitability in Q1 2013.
Are we facing the same situation today? Yes, I think so in many ways. The share price is down YTD, and TSLA has certainly not been a great investment over the last two years (disregarding the dollar appreciation). The short interest is huge. It seems like the Model X is a great car, Tesla is making huge progress in all areas, but the profitability and positive cash flow is lacking. Many on this forum expect the share price (SP) to rise as soon as we get positive reviews, see increased Model X production or get updates from Elon at different events or twitter. I'm not saying these things don't affect the SP, but ultimately I think the big surge will happen when the company releases profitability and free cash flow. This will, in my view, not happen until Q1 2016. Exactly the same as what happened after Q1 2013. History repeats itself...
Another takeaway here is the underestimation of the risk Tesla is facing. Elon Musk is often hyping Tesla and the products. He is not lying, but definitely not showing us the true picture at all times. I think this was necessary in order to avoid people cancelling Roadster and Model S reservations in fear of bankruptcy. It has also generated a lot of free press. In the end he has delivered on all of his promises, and I think he will this time as well. However, there are major risks in scaling production of Model X, building out the Gigafactory and devoloping the Model III. Elon Musk and Tesla takes on huge (calculated) risks which is something I love about Tesla, but it is important to remember that a couple of bad events could put this company in a terrible situation.
I'm all in waiting for a huge surge in SP in 2016. I'm looking forward to more reviews on Model X, and they will hopefully reinforce my belief in Tesla, albeit I'm not expecting the share price to jump much. That's actually great news as that is giving us an edge over the market. We can buy 2018 leaps and stocks as we see Tesla's progress and sit back and wait for profitability and positive cash flow. Exactly the same way as a lot of the forum members here became Teslanaires during 2013.
I'm thinking back to the time when TSLA was trading in the range between $30 and $40. TSLA was the first stock I bought back in early 2012 (I was 19 at the time). As time went by I couldn't understand how the price was still stuck below $40, even though it seemed the company was making huge progress. I bought more shares. The model S was released and the reviews were great. The backlog of order was (apperently) huge. I bought more shares again. Looking back I think I was somewhat lucky and didn't understand the full risk this company was facing. The share price didn't surge until they released profitability in Q1 2013.
Are we facing the same situation today? Yes, I think so in many ways. The share price is down YTD, and TSLA has certainly not been a great investment over the last two years (disregarding the dollar appreciation). The short interest is huge. It seems like the Model X is a great car, Tesla is making huge progress in all areas, but the profitability and positive cash flow is lacking. Many on this forum expect the share price (SP) to rise as soon as we get positive reviews, see increased Model X production or get updates from Elon at different events or twitter. I'm not saying these things don't affect the SP, but ultimately I think the big surge will happen when the company releases profitability and free cash flow. This will, in my view, not happen until Q1 2016. Exactly the same as what happened after Q1 2013. History repeats itself...
Another takeaway here is the underestimation of the risk Tesla is facing. Elon Musk is often hyping Tesla and the products. He is not lying, but definitely not showing us the true picture at all times. I think this was necessary in order to avoid people cancelling Roadster and Model S reservations in fear of bankruptcy. It has also generated a lot of free press. In the end he has delivered on all of his promises, and I think he will this time as well. However, there are major risks in scaling production of Model X, building out the Gigafactory and devoloping the Model III. Elon Musk and Tesla takes on huge (calculated) risks which is something I love about Tesla, but it is important to remember that a couple of bad events could put this company in a terrible situation.
I'm all in waiting for a huge surge in SP in 2016. I'm looking forward to more reviews on Model X, and they will hopefully reinforce my belief in Tesla, albeit I'm not expecting the share price to jump much. That's actually great news as that is giving us an edge over the market. We can buy 2018 leaps and stocks as we see Tesla's progress and sit back and wait for profitability and positive cash flow. Exactly the same way as a lot of the forum members here became Teslanaires during 2013.
