Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[schonelucht]

Are you referring to people not buying an S because the X is so cool and it will only take 2 more years, if they reserve right away, to get one?

Not really. They have deposits of a bit over 20k for the Model X. Guidance is to have a production rate of 2k/week by the end of the year. Currently the additional wait time after signatures should be a very manageable 15 weeks or so. There is however a gamble that orders will skyrocket after Tesla announces price and details, which may put you at the back of a huge list.

 

[sundaymorning]

Take a look at the posts on the forum and you see less dread about how much lower the stock is going to go and more speculation when it's going to take off. Elon's talk changed the conversation to a more positive note. I think Austin called it when he said we've seen the expected drop after Elon's conference but now we're seeing the positive effect as people realize that the ending range anxiety conference will indeed sell more cars. The Street's survey, as questionable as it was, strikes me as confirmation of Austin's hypothesis.

Just making sure we're on the same page here. Some macro data released earlier and appears to be putting some pressure on foreign markets and oil. I would expect some of the same for US markets tomorrow, but if Tesla bucks that trend it would be a pretty good sign for what lies ahead.

I'll take 10 quarters of rampant growth starting with Q1 2015 :biggrin:. That will take us through Q3 2017. If we then miss by 50 cars per quarter we will have a miss of 200 for the year when deliveries will be a minimum of 100k.... So, I agree with your premise:wink:

I think even if they missed 500 cars per quarter people will eventually see the steady climb on a 6-12 month chart. But I agree with most that it won't be very good this Q if they miss again. Hopefully that doesn't happen but you never can be too sure in this game.

 

[Papafox]

Just making sure we're on the same page here. Some macro data released earlier and appears to be putting some pressure on foreign markets and oil. I would expect some of the same for US markets tomorrow, but if Tesla bucks that trend it would be a pretty good sign for what lies ahead.

Elon's presentation carries no long-term shark-repellent with it, and TSLA can revert to its pre-announcement ways if bad news swamps good news. What I saw today was a lazy meandering upstream with no significant recent news. I'll take that behavior any day over descending values when there's no news.

 

[Auzie]

Does anyone know what this is? Confidential Treatment Order was filed 2 days before filing Annual Report.

View attachment 75710

I am so curious but obviously Tesla must have good reasons to protect particular information.

 

[Lessmog]

Does anyone know what this is? Confidential Treatment Order was filed 2 days before filing Annual Report.

View attachment 75710

I am so curious but obviously Tesla must have good reasons to protect particular information.

Auzie, your attachment link is invalid. The pdf link is good though.
I'm a little curious myself, but it's probably not a big deal, just an extension of previously granted secrecy. And with good reason.

 

[sundaymorning]

Dollar unexpectedly weakens, oil rebounds to $48, looking good in the pre market and futures. Shrugging off China slow factory data.

 

[mejojo]

Not really. They have deposits of a bit over 20k for the Model X. Guidance is to have a production rate of 2k/week by the end of the year. Currently the additional wait time after signatures should be a very manageable 15 weeks or so. There is however a gamble that orders will skyrocket after Tesla announces price and details, which may put you at the back of a huge list.

What percent of that 2k/week will be X. Certainly far less than 100%.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Auzie, your attachment link is invalid. The pdf link is good though.
I'm a little curious myself, but it's probably not a big deal, just an extension of previously granted secrecy. And with good reason.

To save others the time looking at the document, this filing extends confidentiality of three parts of prior 10-Qs or 10-Ks:

Exhibit to Form Filed on Confidential Treatment Granted
10.1 10-Q August 2, 2012 through December 31, 2015
10.1 10-Q November 14, 2011 through December 31, 2015
10.47 10-K March 3, 2011 through December 31, 2015

All of these items are amendments to Tesla's supply agreements with Toyota.

 

[austinEV]

This little run is making a mockery of my March 20 200 calls that expired last week...

 

[ibcs]

China license plate news certainly gave an unexpected bump.

Model S wins license plate approval in Shenzhen • 9:58 AM
Clark Schultz, SA News Editor
Tesla Motors (TSLA +0.4%) has been approved for a new-energy program in Shenzhen.
Model S vehicles will be included as part of the 20K license plate tags set aside in the Chinese municipality near Hong Kong.
The development takes place in the home city of EV automaker BYD Co.
Previously: Dark cloud over China auto market (Mar. 04 2015)
Previously: Meet the Chinese Gigafactory (Mar. 14 2015)

 

[FredTMC]

Quiet thread today... Hmmm

 

[maoing]

I noticed some very bullish folks didn't post recently, and some started to have conservative views, some even started to buy put for protection. I believe investor sentiments wise, it's bottomed out or very close to bottom.

 

[mejojo]

I noticed something unusual today....my call portfolio (various strikes, Jun 15, Jan 16, Jan 17) normally tracks about 2.5-3 * SP delta.

Today, up over 5% on 1% SP. I don't have enough experience to know what this means, but it would seem bullish that these mid and long-term calls are outpacing SP increase by more than normal.

 

[Lump]

I noticed some very bullish folks didn't post recently, and some started to have conservative views, some even started to buy put for protection. I believe investor sentiments wise, it's bottomed out or very close to bottom.

I touched on board sentiment back on 3-9-15 when the stock was around $190 the night before the FudBunker was created #2981

The TMC sentiment indicator worked really well in the past, when novices were buying LEAPS for the first time or when fear was rampant after the fires many pointed out the extremes & mid term turning points soon followed, so its something I try to gauge & trade.

Some observations of mine but unfortunantly no conclusions as far as sentiment goes.
1. Long time contributers who were mostly bulls no longer post here, did they cash out or just staying silent I don't know.
2. The use of the label "FUD" is at a all time high, TSLA has had larger corrections but I don't remember FUD being thrown around this much, is the frustration higher now? Is it because some of these investors missed out on the big run & bought near the highs? Maybe some is fair but its used in every other post it seems.

For the last 7 months the short term investment thread is very predictable, any bad news is either ignored or dismissed while repeating 2020 & 2025 projections, the number of contributors who participate here has definitely declined IMO.

 

[Auzie]

For the last 7 months the short term investment thread is very predictable, any bad news is either ignored or dismissed while repeating 2020 & 2025 projections, the number of contributors who participate here has definitely declined IMO.

Perhaps the number of contributors declined because it is not as easy or profitable as it used to be to do short term trades in TSLA.

 

[InTheShadows]

Perhaps the number of contributors declined because it is not as easy or profitable as it used to be to do short term trades in TSLA.

Exactly! I was a pro in 2013, in 2014 I was a beginner, and now I am an absolute noob. Learning how to make money in a sideways and down market is much more difficult than the bull market of 2013.

 

[Auzie]

Exactly! I was a pro in 2013, in 2014 I was a beginner, and now I am an absolute noob. Learning how to make money in a sideways and down market is much more difficult than the bull market of 2013.

This market is as bull as they come, it is just Tesla that needs to re- bull a bit.

But it is ok to take a breather for awhile.

 

[austinEV]

Exactly! I was a pro in 2013, in 2014 I was a beginner, and now I am an absolute noob. Learning how to make money in a sideways and down market is much more difficult than the bull market of 2013.

I agree with this. Plus it is just not as fast moving or interesting anymore. Investing in TM always was going to involve long stretches (quarters or even years) of them just working hard and executing. All along when it rose from the 30's I figured it might go sideways for 2-3 years. I was shocked when it went as high as it did. Now, we are getting a taste of lengthy sideways patches. It isn't easy to make short term money anymore. I figure there will be like 2 times a year where good research might give you an edge and allow you to get in with short term options. None of those are happening, so not much reason to discuss the short term.

To echo the Mods, it really is good to get out of the investor threads and stretch your legs. Go read about delivery threads, firmware updates, model X sightings. Try to remember that it is a great company making great products, and in the long run will (probably, maybe) make you money on the stock. Just not every single month like it did there for while.

We could have a "revival" push and everyone write up long bull thesis articles to get the blood pumping again too. I remember back in 2012/13 everyone was competing to write the most thorough analysis of why TM was going to take over the world. But eventually they were all written and there wasn't as much to add anymore so they kind of stopped happening.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

I love to hear this. New investor who bought in at 187.00 a few days back. I am Canadian so I get dinged with foreign exchange fees if I trade it. I will be holding it forever so it is a non-issue. I won't be selling - even if she dips to $100 bucks. That is how much faith I have in the long term viability of TSLA. We are finally starting to see some Superchargers in Alberta. My next vehicle will be the Model 3.

PSS: I NEED MY PIECE OF THE AMERICAN DREAM

 

[Mateo7]

The silent longs are a patient, watchful bunch. I have a large number of shares that I'll hold until at least 2018, if not longer. It feels like the best thing I could possibly do with my money -- supporting the next evolutionary step in automotive (and energy). I have a feeling I'm not alone in this perspective.