I was as excited and giddy as the next guy when I read the highly anticipated SMP2 - and I loved every word until the very end. It was everything I wanted to hear.
Then my excitement ended. cuz it sounded too perfect... then I started noticing some... holes... *cringe*
I hesitate spewing my negative thoughts into public domain... but... maybe I can get some of these points smashed back down so I dont have to think about it anymore...
I feel like I want to try, since I assume I'll smash a few holes, but maybe make some bigger. Here goes. Responses in-line; your text in Italics:
1. For an outline, it read more like a fairy tale, complete with side stories. Where the first SMP had rebuttals and calculations to dispute the clearly wrong assumptions, this one... had a different narrative. SMP focuses on the core mission, thats it. SMP2 = SMP+ego+crack?. It is strangely detailed in some areas, and completely skips over others. which leads me to the next point.
I agree about the skips; I already stated as such. The rest, though, is basically steering the company's future in a certain direction. People know what's next, and get to think of that when going to study and research, and want to be on board when they pick the new teams. They won't have to go to endless meetings and trainings to figure out what the future means, because they'll have already started working on it in their minds as they are working on older topics with their hands. Investors will know what's going to happen to their investments.
I explained in my prior posts how I think a unified point of contact and internalized responsibility for the turnkey product (energy + transportation, i.e., solar panels + batteries + electrical equipment (inverters, converters, charge ports) + car) will be a better customer service experience, better word of mouth, better sales, and conceptually simpler for the public, as well as fulfilling the goals of the company, both in the minds of the buyers and the company. I think this is something Tesla should already be doing, should already have done, and should do. I also have stated many times they could do this with partnerships, and that I think Tesla has decided to fold in some family business instead. I think it's suboptimal, but will be sufficient for the goals, if execution isn't botched (i.e., screw up the solar panel financing stuff and extend the company's financing (loans) beyond its reach). It's very possible that by stating this pathway, that other pathways are already beginning to close up, and the older suboptimality will fade and it will be just as optimal as other choices.
2. M3 starts with ver.0.5? I love you Elon. I hope I'm wrong in assessing market perceptions... but 400k people just deposited for ver.0.5? I hate myself for every word that's coming out right now... but what kind of standard are we going to expect at launch?? Why include this detail in SMP2? T.T
The Machine That Builds The Machine (TMTBTM), the "Factory As Product" (FAP), whatever you want to call it -- the factory part, is the ver. 0.5, not the car itself. M3 will come out as M3 v1, not v0.5. The factory that builds M3v1 is Factoryv0.5. This was just a "glitch" in your reading (to borrow a word from the Pokemon Go players; I don't like the word, so I'm paying it back to them fast).
3. TSLA + SCTY was 2 paragraphs =_=' no new info. doesnt address ANY of the hard questions asked by some of the harder core members on this board... not much coherency with the rest of the story... its just... there... Admittedly, SCTY was there from the very beginning in SMP with 2 paragraphs also...
That last part, `admittedly, SCTY was "there" from the very beginning in SMP with 2 paragraphs', is a huge part of what put me, and just very barely, over the edge in support of the new Tesla company if they end up buying Solar City. I'll explain myself again: (1) I didn't know that was there in the original SMP, and I should have known. (Actually, I knew it was there, but I mentally glossed over the "I am heavily invested in both companies" part without thinking of the full ramifications of including that text next to the Solar City text in SMP1; apparently, relationships do confer guilt in that interpretation, something I like to keep more separate, since relatives can be messy.) (2) The original SMP doesn't state SCTY would be the exclusive Solar Panel offering integrated with Tesla. (3) The financing issues are still issues. So, the result of all of those three things is that I had to look at the execution angle, to make certain they don't screw up the financing side. Tesla's CEO neatly didn't reveal this aspect of his "fairytale" as you like to call it. But what I did understand is that there may be some further financial work to do there to fold the companies together and make new integrated products, and I'd like to see that explained, not so much in talking nice about the past (but disclosure would be nice), but about explaining the future integrated financing. I surmised a better financing arrangement with M3 buyers also buying all three products at once, and not doing solar leases so much as using all 3 to collateralize the loans and keep the payments low enough that the principles can be much higher, much like the difference in a traditional ICE car loan vs. a traditional home loan. Admittedly, that's me saying there's work to be done here, but that glimmer of hope was enough for me to move my stance from "stop, don't merge until you explain this" to "ok, if you merge, explain this".
4. Anyone else feeling that ego?
Nope. This is very modest for a modern car factory. (Remember, the current ICE cars are over a century old in most ways.) I had all these same factory design thoughts 30 years ago when I was 15, maybe younger. If anything, he's leaving out a lot of ego; there's plenty more ego that could go into it, such as SpaceX, OpenAI, planetary terraforming, sending humans and cyborgs out into the solar system, and leaving behind a happy planet full of trees and cyborgs that owe their future to Mr. Man Musk Himself. That would be a lot of ego. And yet, it's where it's headed. (I've said a thousand times --- millions of people save the world every year. Just because someone thinks and acts big doesn't make them too egotistical. There's plenty of work, including big thinking work, to be done, being done, and done already.)
Elon has achieved legendary status and deserves to talk however he wants... but this ego sounds like its masking some insecurity...
Aha. You noticed something I didn't, but I surmise you may have a point there. While I don't think he has excess ego, perhaps the style did reveal a certain .... lack of something. I prefer concrete criticisms, so I'll read on ...
Tesla started off with a mission to accelerate the advent of sustainable transportation. He even gave away their patents! thats the ultimate good guy move. But then SMP2 reads as if TESLA is going to dominate the world by brute (hippy x A.I.) force.
- It will take on Uber for sharing. and transform how car ownership works single handedly. No partnerships? what does that infrastructure look like? Will they provide the insurance? Who is liable for damages inside the car? - to address these concerns, that will necessarily mean that we will no longer have any privacy inside the cars too.... Does Tesla want to take on those problems that doesn't contribute to the core mission? I don't know...
- TESLA will make all vehicles for everyone from Semis to garbage trucks to bulldozers. in how many years will they get that capacity? after how many Giga factories? how many plants around the world? Tesla is going to eat the whole pie? that has got to be crack talking... right?
Ahh, but wait, I noticed the same problem, and it was one of the first problems I called out. I'll let your thoughts and mine about this topic process in my mind. For now, the only thing I'll respond with is that the assumption is that Tesla will just be one company, and plenty of competitors can keep up or do better if they want. There are existing car companies, after all, and there's also that Apple rumor. The one thing you say he's leaving out, that the marketplace will have competition, is something that will already exist, whether Elon mentions it or not. I don't like the lack of a more thoroughly accurate real life image of that future, but it's not a great leap to think of what that is without Elon mentioning the competition. Also, the implementation details can be left open to his company to implement in detail. Being non-detailed in what is coming up has a component of allowing whatever comes up to be seen without distraction. Of course, not being ready for it when they see it is a pitfall. So a lack of vision detail manifests weird in documents: do you make a list of unbounded possibilities to be picked apart and make the whole document even longer, or do you just leave that stuff out? It's not always the easiest to put it in the document. But, I tend to agree with your general point, nevertheless. A little bit more would be nice.
The tone of SMP was of a nerd, formulating a strategy to rescue a damsel in distress. The tone of SMP2 is of a jaded nerd that is bruised and tired of being picked on and is giving one last warning before releasing the Kraken. Maybe that is good. Playing the good guy did not generate sufficient good will to garner collaboration or even adoration from the general public.
I hugely disagree with the "collaboration or adoration from public". Tesla has had a huge success in that regard. (I'm not sure they could get any more than they already have, relative to market share. They have to be modest about how much they can do this, so not over-amping this is probably a good idea, although I find it necessary going forward for their sales model. By the way, I agree with their mission, and so does much of the rest of the public that buys into it.)
I don't know what the Kraken is. I'll google it. Ahh, giant sea monster. That's fine. I'm not worried. (Then again, I did stay in NYC for 7 years, SF pre-gentrification for 2, and San Jose post-ex-gentrification for 7, so I have a certain ... skin, and appetite for giant sea monsters, that many non-urban people aren't accustomed to. Boldness is fine in my book, as long as the boldness is not outside of the truth and good morals, but pride come before the fall, too.)
Maybe the only way to change the world is to be the villain. and crush all the enemies. People are weak. Give them a new choice and they will cower in fear. Take away the old choices, and they will rejoice the new saviour.
I'm already fully invested in team TESLA... I just wanted someone to crush my skepticism.
So, you want him to take over the world? I certainly don't. He's got a lot of particular attitudes that would make me very upset at the King much of the time if he were King. Also, if he is King, that means he can be, and should be, deposed. That would be reaching way too far for him. I don't include His Monarchy in any of my Tesla calculations. Is that my folly? I presume that Tesla will be a shining gem among a rough of rocks (or possibly just a pretty rock among rocks), but all working to the same goals. Eventually. Somehow. It's kind of like driving down a road, and then there's a mountain in the way. Well, the road is already there, so you drive the mountain road. But, it isn't very straight, and has its high points and low points. However, if you drive wrong, you can die very fast or get very hurt, very fast. On the other hand, once you get good at mountain driving, then it's just FUN.
