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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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And here I thought Mr. Musk was just trying to deflect attention from the ongoing dating rumors by focusing attention back on his car - I mean energy - company.

Talk about "buy the rumour..."

My guess is new autopilot hardware, since we have been seeing real twin-camera hardware evidence on shipping cars.

Less certain about 100kWh battery...but looking forward to it anyway.

For what it's worth... Elon's tweet didn't convey much happiness on his part. I hope that the continual badgering by amateur journalists, blogs and forum speculators isn't starting to force their hand with product development.

(naturally, the programmers who included P100D graphics inside the OS of shipping cars probably got a firm talking to, but still... the public have not sat still and let whatever will be, be)
 
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Reactions: MartinAustin
My personal speculation on likelihood of product announcement:

1. V8.0 software with minor autopilot V1.0 update
2. 100kWh battery for S and X
3. Powerwall V2

I can't imagine it possibly being V2.0 of autopilot. That is event-worthy.

I think Crowded Mind has it nailed. The feel I get is that this reminds me of the "ending range anxiety forever" news release, which was also a phone conversation around noon and I think investors were hoping for something bigger.

Elon loves Autopilot so much that version 2 of the hardware and capabilities are probably reserved for an in-person presentation.

So it'll be Version 8.0 software, and perhaps 100kWh battery. Didn't even think about Tesla Energy... perhaps you're even more right :)
 
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I've been thinking about this over my lunch break a fair bit, and the more I think about it, the more I'm convinced its *not* P100D or AP2.0.

Both of those are huge, highly anticipated, and represent a big change to the flagship vehicle.

Historically, those type of announcements are met with a big party: (see GF Grand Opening, Model 3 Reveal, Model X Production reveal, D reveal, etc), with plenty of guests (Tesla owners, press, etc) attending. Complete with the new product rolling out on stage autonomously, and pulling 10s drag runs. The software limited 60 didn't get one of these because its not any different than existing S to look at. A P100D will set a new benchmark for performance, and AP2.0 will set a new benchmark for what production-ready autonomous vehicles can do, and they'll want to show those off.

This announcement was totally silent until ~3 hours out. Something with this little fanfare probably isn't a major upgrade to the flagship.

My other thought is that it likely isn't Powerwall-2.0 either, though, as I would expect any big TE announcements to be held back until after the merger is a done deal.

I don't think V8 software really counts as a "new product announcement". We've known V8 was coming for a while too.

Could be the HUD we've been expecting to appear on MS/MX for a while though.

Could be official announcement of Model Y but no reveal, to go on sale simultaneously with 3 next year and be unveiled at M3 part deux? With the design for manufacturability of both of them, they'll be pretty much the same hardware with a different shell stuck on top. Existing Model 3 mules can test for hardware functionality, so they don't really need to unveil Y until we're almost ready to go.
 
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Reactions: Lessmog
I've been thinking about this over my lunch break a fair bit, and the more I think about it, the more I'm convinced its *not* P100D or AP2.0.

Both of those are huge, highly anticipated, and represent a big change to the flagship vehicle.

Historically, those type of announcements are met with a big party: (see GF Grand Opening, Model 3 Reveal, Model X Production reveal, D reveal, etc), with plenty of guests (Tesla owners, press, etc) attending. Complete with the new product rolling out on stage autonomously, and pulling 10s drag runs. The software limited 60 didn't get one of these because its not any different than existing S to look at. A P100D will set a new benchmark for performance, and AP2.0 will set a new benchmark for what production-ready autonomous vehicles can do, and they'll want to show those off.

This announcement was totally silent until ~3 hours out. Something with this little fanfare probably isn't a major upgrade to the flagship.

My other thought is that it likely isn't Powerwall-2.0 either, though, as I would expect any big TE announcements to be held back until after the merger is a done deal.

I don't think V8 software really counts as a "new product announcement". We've known V8 was coming for a while too.

Could be the HUD we've been expecting to appear on MS/MX for a while though.

Could be official announcement of Model Y but no reveal, to go on sale simultaneously with 3 next year and be unveiled at M3 part deux? With the design for manufacturability of both of them, they'll be pretty much the same hardware with a different shell stuck on top. Existing Model 3 mules can test for hardware functionality, so they don't really need to unveil Y until we're almost ready to go.

P90D and Ludicrious were announced on a call.
 
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Reactions: JRP3
I've been thinking about this over my lunch break a fair bit, and the more I think about it, the more I'm convinced its *not* P100D or AP2.0.

Both of those are huge, highly anticipated, and represent a big change to the flagship vehicle.

Historically, those type of announcements are met with a big party: (see GF Grand Opening, Model 3 Reveal, Model X Production reveal, D reveal, etc), with plenty of guests (Tesla owners, press, etc) attending. Complete with the new product rolling out on stage autonomously, and pulling 10s drag runs. The software limited 60 didn't get one of these because its not any different than existing S to look at. A P100D will set a new benchmark for performance, and AP2.0 will set a new benchmark for what production-ready autonomous vehicles can do, and they'll want to show those off.

This announcement was totally silent until ~3 hours out. Something with this little fanfare probably isn't a major upgrade to the flagship.

My other thought is that it likely isn't Powerwall-2.0 either, though, as I would expect any big TE announcements to be held back until after the merger is a done deal.

I don't think V8 software really counts as a "new product announcement". We've known V8 was coming for a while too.

Could be the HUD we've been expecting to appear on MS/MX for a while though.

Could be official announcement of Model Y but no reveal, to go on sale simultaneously with 3 next year and be unveiled at M3 part deux? With the design for manufacturability of both of them, they'll be pretty much the same hardware with a different shell stuck on top. Existing Model 3 mules can test for hardware functionality, so they don't really need to unveil Y until we're almost ready to go.
90 kWh, AP 1.0, the closest past cases to 100 kWh and AP 2.0, were both announced "casually", i.e., without a big party.
 
I've been thinking about this over my lunch break a fair bit, and the more I think about it, the more I'm convinced its *not* P100D or AP2.0.

Both of those are huge, highly anticipated, and represent a big change to the flagship vehicle.

Historically, those type of announcements are met with a big party: (see GF Grand Opening, Model 3 Reveal, Model X Production reveal, D reveal, etc), with plenty of guests (Tesla owners, press, etc) attending. Complete with the new product rolling out on stage autonomously, and pulling 10s drag runs. The software limited 60 didn't get one of these because its not any different than existing S to look at. A P100D will set a new benchmark for performance, and AP2.0 will set a new benchmark for what production-ready autonomous vehicles can do, and they'll want to show those off.

This announcement was totally silent until ~3 hours out. Something with this little fanfare probably isn't a major upgrade to the flagship.

My other thought is that it likely isn't Powerwall-2.0 either, though, as I would expect any big TE announcements to be held back until after the merger is a done deal.

I don't think V8 software really counts as a "new product announcement". We've known V8 was coming for a while too.

Could be the HUD we've been expecting to appear on MS/MX for a while though.

Could be official announcement of Model Y but no reveal, to go on sale simultaneously with 3 next year and be unveiled at M3 part deux? With the design for manufacturability of both of them, they'll be pretty much the same hardware with a different shell stuck on top. Existing Model 3 mules can test for hardware functionality, so they don't really need to unveil Y until we're almost ready to go.

As @EldestOyster said, 90 and ludicrous were a call. P100 and 2.0 are on the table for a call, because it would be the highest folly to schedule a product announcement party. However long between now and then sales would slam to a halt. you COULD announce a party for model 3 or future models. Adjustments to the current lineups will be calls, new models or new info on models can be parties.

That is why in my list I speculated about updates to S/X or announcing dates for the other things.
 
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