Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Value Ev]

Nice thought Fre
d...and I consider getting a "dislike" from one of my ignored members the equivalent of 10 "Loves"

I think it is always amusing that people have to talk about that they ignore people. LOL

I disliked the post since rather than viewing that people can have a different view of the potential of the stock, people get labeled as a hater for having a different view.

This attitude just prevents any rational discourse about the stock.

 

[FredTMC]

Day's not over yet, folks.

likely won't end today at current price...

Shorts are almost out of 'available shares to short'

Entirely possible big firms will get longer at these prices.

 

[vgrinshpun]

So your thesis is that there is some numbers of shares held by Fidelity that until now they have not been lending to short sellers that they have now "released" for lending?

Just to make sure, it is just pure speculation, but it makes a lot of sense to me. What I actually meant that they are dumping shares into the lending immediately after buying new shares - makes it easier for them to accumulate at a lower price...

EDIT: If this is really what is going on, i.e. that large institutional share holders stand at the ready to increase their position, they will try to do it methodically over few days. The SP will grind up, and this ultimately will be loosing bet by the short sellers.

 

[Mike Smith]

Picked up some dec16 205 calls for 11.65. Crazy

 

[bdy0627]

SP is quite predictably unpredictable in the short term, regardless of the news it seems. A lot of you know much more than me about stock movement and manipulation. Can shorts really have this much power over the stock price on a day like today with so much volume? I have my doubts and suspicions at the same time. However, sentiment about Tesla is still more positive than it was before the Q3ER. That should mean more positive pressure on the SP over time. The trading range TSLA has been in should at least nudge up a bit.

 

[FredTMC]

From a other forum

The Hillsborough Area Regional Transit Authority announced it is partnering with electric car maker Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) to create an Uber-esque ride hailing service for transit users.

http://www.bizjournals.com/tampabay...artners-with-hillsborough-transit-agency.html

It's an interesting idea to partner up whith local communities to solve the self driving thing, after all they know best what they need

Ummm. WOW!!!

This is in Tampa, Fl apparently...

Looks like Tesla is moving VERY quickly on ride-hailing (setting up agreements already). I bet there's other cities that haven't been disclosed yet.

Ummm. WOW

 

[Johan]

Just to make sure, it is just pure speculation, but it makes a lot of sense to me. What I actually meant that they are dumping shares into the lending immediately after buying new shares - makes it easier for them to accumulate at a lower price...

I get it. Immediately after putting buying pressure on the stock they lend the shares they bought to [extremely stupid] short sellers thus 1) creating added income from interest 2) counteracting the buy pressure with [short] selling to allow them to keep accumulating at or around the same price and 3) setting the stock up for more of a squeeze type dynamic. All this paid by the shorts.

 

[SBenson]

This is a balanced report in my view:

Tesla’s Rare Profit Delivers ‘Pie’ Musk Ordered for His Skeptics

This kind of explains why stock is not up like $30 but merely $10.

Its the genius from Daily Kanban. I am somewhat upset with you for directing me to 30 seconds of seeing this FUD loving morons face.

The what?

I see you are around here since Feb 2016. That explains a lot. Let me help you out.

Anyone who has been around here on TMC for a while knows Dana Hull and her reporting credibility. There is a big difference between her articles and Niedermeyer's fud opinion pieces. Although both are on Bloomberg, they are different sections. One is news, the other is opinion column.

The point of my original post is to show the perspective that the market is having. If you actually took a moment to read it you would have found that the report is not negative at all.

If you are simply looking for an emotional booster that is not the place for you. But if someone is trying to understand the price action that's a good reference. At least that's how I felt.

 

[Gtoffo]

I get it. Immediately after putting buying pressure on the stock they lend the shares they bought to [extremely stupid] short sellers thus 1) creating added income from interest 2) counteracting the buy pressure with [short] selling to allow them to keep accumulating at or around the same price and 3) setting the stock up for more of a squeeze type dynamic. All this paid by the shorts.

Guys don't get carried away with the conspiracy theories.

I think we are seeing a mix of (in order of relevance:

• No new buyers? Who's the buyer here? Most of us are already in. To get new buyers we need the weight of analysts pulling in new investors. We need upgrades to move significantly. They might come in the next days/weeks
• 200 day SMA resistance
• Shorts with large pockets manipulating the stock by not allowing it to cross the 200SMA and deploying some "bursts" of short selling to signal that the results have not been received positively and spreading FUD. I don't think they can hope to succeed even in the short run so they might just be trying to exit their positions.

EDIT: Analysts and other investors are in wait mode given we have several other significant events lined up for TSLA. They won't pull the trigger until the events are done.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I've always maintained this is an obviously great long term stock, the only question is timing to get in (or more in). This earnings report took away a lot of short term risk to the stock. Short of a market correction (which is a definite possibility), I don't see this stock moving down much before it gets caught into the model 3 updraft which we all know is coming.

Strategically, it was a great earnings release. Reaffirmed M3 rollout timeline. Gave more color on how easy/profitable it will be to build it (just like they have huge innovation in the drivetrain, sounds like they are now making big gains in manufacturing innovation). Not mentioned or asked in call was anything about Tesla energy. I think we will start to see revenue from that in Q4, with a nice surprise in Q1, running right into Model 3 launch hype. Tomorrow's Solarcity/tesla product announcement will be interesting. Continuing 25% gross margins? That's huge. Actually cash flow positive in the middle of this kind of double digit grow that growth stock are envious about? That's huge. A year away from launching a 10x volume product? That's huge. I think people are missing the forest for the trees.

 

[mejojo]

I disliked the post since rather than viewing that people can have a different view of the potential of the stock, people get labeled as a hater for having a different view.

Not all views are equivalent, and not all views are worthy of contemplation, or are due respect.

 

[Johan]

Guys don't get carried away with the conspiracy theories.

I think we are seeing a mix of (in order of relevance:

• No new buyers? Who's the buyer here? Most of us are already in. To get new buyers we need the weight of analysts pulling in new investors. We need upgrades to move significantly. They might come in the next days/weeks
• 200 day SMA resistance
• Shorts with large pockets manipulating the stock by not allowing it to cross the 200SMA and deploying some "bursts" of short selling to signal that the results have not been received positively and spreading FUD. I don't think they can hope to succeed even in the short run so they might just be trying to exit their positions.

But it's not a "conspiracy theory", is it? It would just be the natural result of a big fund accumulating and then directly lending the shares, right?

 

[FredTMC]

At 10:49am shares available to short are down another 305K, to 146,445

Update?

TIA...

 

[SBenson]

I think whatever analyst upgrades there are in the next couple days will be tempered due to lack of visibility caused by pending SCTY acquisition. Elon tried to clear things up with his words (ie., saying that SCTY will possibly be cash neutral next year), but skeptical finance-oriented analysts/investors want more than Elon's words at this point.

This nicely summerises the situation here. DaveT predicted analyst reaction even before the analyst reaction came out.

Hopefully Nov 1 call will add a bit more clarity. Or else we are in this continued doldrums for a while (a few quarters).

So, everybody calm down and stop attacking anybody that posts anything rational.

 

[Tenable]

The what?

I see you are around here since Feb 2016. That explains a lot. Let me help you out.

Anyone who has been around here on TMC for a while knows Dana Hull and her reporting credibility. There is a big difference between her articles and Niedermeyer's fud opinion pieces. Although both are on Bloomberg, they are different sections. One is news, the other is opinion column.

The point of my original post is to show the perspective that the market is having. If you actually took a moment to read it you would have found that the report is not negative at all.

If you are simply looking for an emotional booster that is not the place for you. But if someone is trying to understand the price action that's a good reference. At least that's how I felt.

My apologies, the video is what I was referring to. It auto played and I navigated away.

 

[W84M3]

ALMOST RED. What.the.

 

[Drax7]

The analyst cater to the hedge fund community, which is mostly short.
Hedge funds sustain the analyst . They pay for their research and in exchange
expect the analysts to support their positions.

So the analyst pooh pooh the results.

It also explains why none congratulated the firm for their performance
and were actually rude at times.

 

[Tenable]

This price movement is traumatizing. Also, on IB shares to short have barely moved. 8k have been taken by the shorts since the market opened.

 

[SBenson]

My apologies, the video is what I was referring to. It auto played and I navigated away.

Yeah, these auto play videos totally suck. Don't know why they mix up incoherent content.

 

[tander]

Additionally: Elon and Wheeler weren't talking about that with any inflection in their voices that suggested that they have any doubt the merger succeeds. They're quite confident its a done deal and the shareholder vote is merely a formality at this point.

That brings up a good question, how many people actually think the merger might not get enough votes? Regardless of whether you think it's a good idea or not.