we both said our opinions about it, no need to sweat on it, and make funny analogies that dont fit. Just let it be, ok?
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
Given that the bad news is 'out' and the issue will be fixed sooner-or-later. Anyone willing to buy more at this point?
I have loads of long position. I have a tiny bit of cash left. Buying shares will be useless as the number of shares I get will be negligible in comparison to what I already have. Best I can do is buy some 18 LEAPS. But torn between buying now vs post-ER.
I have loads of long position. I have a tiny bit of cash left. Buying shares will be useless as the number of shares I get will be negligible in comparison to what I already have. Best I can do is buy some 18 LEAPS. But torn between buying now vs post-ER.
chickensevil
Active Member
Well, nevermind then. I guess what I was thinking is clearly not the case
So let me clear this up for you, unless they royally screw up their spending and drive themselves into horrible debt, then all they need to do if they can't secure more financing (assuming of course that they even plan to) is slow down their expansion goals. Sure, the stock will take a hit because the market will give them lower multiples... but at this point we have already lost all of those multiples in the current price anyway, so I am not sure that it matters too much. They can absolutely make it to the M3 release at this point. So as long as they stay conservative with the car, it will sell extremely well, and float the company into the future. The Model X was their risky play with cash that they could afford to lose. If it becomes a flop, they could just dump the car, focus on the S, and ride 30% GMs through to the release of the Model 3.
So let me clear this up for you, unless they royally screw up their spending and drive themselves into horrible debt, then all they need to do if they can't secure more financing (assuming of course that they even plan to) is slow down their expansion goals. Sure, the stock will take a hit because the market will give them lower multiples... but at this point we have already lost all of those multiples in the current price anyway, so I am not sure that it matters too much. They can absolutely make it to the M3 release at this point. So as long as they stay conservative with the car, it will sell extremely well, and float the company into the future. The Model X was their risky play with cash that they could afford to lose. If it becomes a flop, they could just dump the car, focus on the S, and ride 30% GMs through to the release of the Model 3.
chickensevil
Active Member
My additional cash won't clear until the 10th. I am likely to hold out until post ER since we should know at that point if we have found a bottom or if it is going to keep going. This will also help with the split between buying LEAPs vs additional shares.
I love it how half-baked guessing based on anecdotal stories turns into a question, turns into a statement, turns into a fact which causes people to melt down here. For the love of God, everybody needs to calm down a bit guys. How did we end up with the legend of recently redesigned FWD?
The Credit Suisse report said minor issues which have already been worked out. We have learned about things like the adhesive they used to glue the sensors to the inside of the FWD doors wasn`t curing as it should have and needed to be replaced. We have also seen some alignment and sloppy production (black marks on carpet, etc.) on these forums. Those qualify as well, you don`t need to go right away to "OMG they had to redesign those stupid FWD again and cars already produced will be recalled!". I am pretty sure if a key part of the door was missing you wouldn`t see the series of delivery reports we see these days.
The Credit Suisse report said minor issues which have already been worked out. We have learned about things like the adhesive they used to glue the sensors to the inside of the FWD doors wasn`t curing as it should have and needed to be replaced. We have also seen some alignment and sloppy production (black marks on carpet, etc.) on these forums. Those qualify as well, you don`t need to go right away to "OMG they had to redesign those stupid FWD again and cars already produced will be recalled!". I am pretty sure if a key part of the door was missing you wouldn`t see the series of delivery reports we see these days.
i dont think the whole drop in the sp can be attributed to the hinges of the fwd. I think we are Close to the bottom of the fall. If the ER is not too bad, then things will start looking positive again, im sure.
chickensevil
Active Member
I'm sure it's the same redesign we all knew about previously. One thing I have learned is that the Analysts tend to be more of an echo chamber, repeating the findings that most of us have already been aware of for at least 24 hours, if not longer... In this case, I think the report was repeating all the known things that have been floating for at least 1 month. The intent behind the report wasn't to necessarily reveal any new information, but to put his foot down that everyone else is over blowing this situation and hopefully help provide a bottom to the price.
Likely because they are getting tons of calls from their investors asking if they should be dumping their shares and such and this is intended to settle them down a bit. Because if everyone thinks this is the end of the world, they are going to keep selling their shares, even if it really isn't warranted, which causes a growing affect of more price drops as more investors think it's time to cut their money and run.
There is no way X is going to flop at this point. User reviews have been great and there is no competition. The only thing that is not perfect is the delay of the ramp which impacts the cash balance short term.
A bigger risk is if they can do a mass market car like Model 3 while being short on cash. I am not worried about that really because of two reasons:
Original plan had S and X being way less successful than they are, with lower unit sales and lower ASP.
I am 100% certain they have a plan that works in a bear market/recession environment. They just have to slow down.
... no. We drew the conclusion that it was part of the falcon wing doors based on a note by UBS that was stated in the PAST TENSE to explain the less than expected ramp in December 2015.
- - - Updated - - -
What's important to note for LNKD in parcticular is the institutional ownership of 91%. This will explain their price action. If a particular money manager didn't like one thing and started to trigger a position, the cascading effect is incredibly intense. The world of MM's are small and they have requirements to maintain and accumulate specific holdings.
phigment
Member
It's hard to say. Those impacted a lot of the rest of the market. This frightened people and I think it's mostly fear hitting TSLA now. A mediocre report from Tesla will have a negative impact on TSLA, but I think it will be short lived due to the recent price drop already taking too much value out of the stock.
With a good forward looking 2016 TSLA has a lot of room for an upswing.
DATA was a big disappointment, though. It went from 50% growth to 30% (analyst estimates, not company guidance). That would be comparable if Tesla would go down a similar number for deliveries.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
With all the Model X delays, can they possibly make the number for Q1 or even 2016 now?
CyberDutchie
Active Member
There is also another Morgan Stanley Adam Jonas note out today, on the FWD problems.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
