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Hey! This is a regular TMC poster. Tesla Model S head-on collision with Soviet-era Crane Truck: Tesla driver escapes with injured knee, is otherwise ‘OK’
Glad you are OK, Mario.
Glad you are OK, Mario.
Maybe Smiegal needs to re-mortgage his hedge fund to get more ammo!
Yes, by you, in October.
Tesla to hold a special event at the Gigafactory on January 4, 2017
I haven't seen anything new on the subject, and one would have to assume that Tesla would re-affirm this date and send invitations very soon if it's going to happen, unless it's a press-only affair.
EDIT: Oops. As Bgarret pointed out, I was fooled by the "Fred".
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They are both excellent Freds, but FredTMC, while wise, is not the seemingly all-knowing Fred Lambert. Fred Lambert posts often using a very secretive handle of "Fred Lambert" that also sports his picture and possibly includes retinal identification (ok, I made up that last bit).Yes, by you, in October.
Tesla to hold a special event at the Gigafactory on January 4, 2017
I haven't seen anything new on the subject, and one would have to assume that Tesla would re-affirm this date and send invitations very soon if it's going to happen, unless it's a press-only affair.
According to the article, @Mario Kadastik wasn´t driving. He rents out his cars. Would still be interesting to get some extra info
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Kenriko
Former Vendor
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
GM is now using OTA. One less moat for Tesla on the road to autonomous driving:
The biggest game changer for Tesla was over the air updates-OTA, in which Tesla can update vehicle software without having customers bring vehicles into their service center, saving them time and money. OTA’s also allow Tesla to do some late stage testing in the field via their customers.
GM has also finally started using OTA updates (ref 8) on their Chevy Bolt EV, so Tesla no longer has a leg up on OTA updates in this case. In addition to OTA updates, Tesla does its testing in house to speed up the iteration process, but it is not clear if they do more in house testing than GM, as GM also has extensive in house test facilities also.
One thing that both Tesla and GM have in common is that their pre-production testing is comprised of three parts: mule testing, early prototype vehicle testing and, in part 3 they test their production line….and of course the vehicles that get produced on the production line.
Let’s look at the details and how long all this takes.
<Snip>
Why do you think that the M3 is more difficult to build than the Bolt?
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We're way OT here, but it looks to me as though the Estonian Tesla was attempting to cross that major traffic artery. Doesn't mean he didn't have the right-of-way against a high-flying crane, though.
Now, a courteous operator would have used his boom to help that Tesla onto the tow truck....just sayin'
Now, a courteous operator would have used his boom to help that Tesla onto the tow truck....just sayin'
Sorry guys, I don't believe into the theory that somehow Tesla is very secretly making tons of progress.
For one, Tesla has been very open about progress on Model 3. See the Q3 shareholder letter.
Secondly, Tesla and Musk has everything to gain from showcasing progress and gaining credibility into the timeline. Especially in the context of the biggest bull on Wall Street dismissing 2017 deliveries and much of 2018.
Let’s face it, Musk has tried his very very best to support the stock price in Q3. All the way to writing masterplan duex, when masterplan-1 is not half done, to showing off solar roofs that are nowhere near production and it's not clear if even a demo system would work that day.
Why would he all of a sudden turn shy on model-3 details? That doesn't make much sense.
Beating around model-3 creates an unnecessary bubble of expectations. If TMC has any reach at all, it's much better to have lower expectations (in line with the Street) and hopefully positively surprised (if ever).
I have several issues with AJ's projections as it surrounds the ramp. For example why is he expecting a decline in S+X run rate? Demand problems? How on earth would he know? With deliveries around the globe, demand is exceptionally hard to assess. If anything VIN numbers are showing increase in demand.
BUT, assessing the beginning of Model-3 production is exceptionally simple. All he has to do is call up a few key suppliers and ask very simple questions, say for example, "where are the bots?"
Do you think a person of AJ's profile is shooting darts on this? I suspect he is making educated guesses and probably better guesses than anyone of us with no reach into the supply chain.
For one, Tesla has been very open about progress on Model 3. See the Q3 shareholder letter.
Secondly, Tesla and Musk has everything to gain from showcasing progress and gaining credibility into the timeline. Especially in the context of the biggest bull on Wall Street dismissing 2017 deliveries and much of 2018.
Let’s face it, Musk has tried his very very best to support the stock price in Q3. All the way to writing masterplan duex, when masterplan-1 is not half done, to showing off solar roofs that are nowhere near production and it's not clear if even a demo system would work that day.
Why would he all of a sudden turn shy on model-3 details? That doesn't make much sense.
Beating around model-3 creates an unnecessary bubble of expectations. If TMC has any reach at all, it's much better to have lower expectations (in line with the Street) and hopefully positively surprised (if ever).
I have several issues with AJ's projections as it surrounds the ramp. For example why is he expecting a decline in S+X run rate? Demand problems? How on earth would he know? With deliveries around the globe, demand is exceptionally hard to assess. If anything VIN numbers are showing increase in demand.
BUT, assessing the beginning of Model-3 production is exceptionally simple. All he has to do is call up a few key suppliers and ask very simple questions, say for example, "where are the bots?"
Do you think a person of AJ's profile is shooting darts on this? I suspect he is making educated guesses and probably better guesses than anyone of us with no reach into the supply chain.
everman
Member
While it does sound like GM has encroached on one of Tesla's moats with their announcement of OTA capability, we should keep in mind that we still don't know the breadth of the system. The Model S and X are controlled with a unified computer system which can update the operational parameters of seemingly all of the sub-systems. Historically, ICE automobiles have been controlled by many separate control systems, often not interconnected. As LG was contracted to create the drivetrain control module, it's likely that system can be updated OTA, but it is still unclear how tightly integrated the rest of the systems are. This will be interesting to find out as more hit the roads.
My prediction is that the Bolt sub-systems are still quite segmented, and will not end up with the OTA flexibility enjoyed by Tesla customers.
- Build sports car * CHECK
- Use that money to build an affordable car * CHECK (S), CHECK (X)
- Use that money to build an even more affordable car * (partially) CHECK
- While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options * CHECK
Calling above "not half done" is not being objective, but ******.
I wasn't looking at the number of ticks perspective. I was looking at the impact perspective. 100K cars vs 500K cars. Or you can look at the revenue perspective. What's the current run rate? What is the end goal run rate for masterplan-1? 10B vs 30B?
In any case, that phrase was from the context of Musk trying his very best to support the stock price in Q3. Do you dispute that?
China EV sales projected to triple by 2020.
电动车狂欢背后 锂电池是产业命脉_汽车评论_汽车_中金在线
Tesla in the lead for International manufacturers.
I suspect a lot of Chinese EV makers will run into problems, unless Tesla is working closely with them to ensure interoperability and quality control. There will surely be a lot of Nissan Leaf type vehicles in China due to practical and cost factors. However, I have a hard time seeing people in China in the market for a well built, reliable, and comfortable EV looking at any "new entrants" or makeshift EVs.
I'm very curious what China is doing to make sure Chinese companies building EVs are carefully monitoring the materials that go into the vehicles, the safety of the vehicles, and the environmental footprint of the EVs being produced.
It would be counterproductive if Chinese EVs use a lot of toxic materials and rare earth metals, only last 1-2 years, and/or end up in landfills when they stop working.
电动车狂欢背后 锂电池是产业命脉_汽车评论_汽车_中金在线
Tesla in the lead for International manufacturers.
I suspect a lot of Chinese EV makers will run into problems, unless Tesla is working closely with them to ensure interoperability and quality control. There will surely be a lot of Nissan Leaf type vehicles in China due to practical and cost factors. However, I have a hard time seeing people in China in the market for a well built, reliable, and comfortable EV looking at any "new entrants" or makeshift EVs.
I'm very curious what China is doing to make sure Chinese companies building EVs are carefully monitoring the materials that go into the vehicles, the safety of the vehicles, and the environmental footprint of the EVs being produced.
It would be counterproductive if Chinese EVs use a lot of toxic materials and rare earth metals, only last 1-2 years, and/or end up in landfills when they stop working.
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sub
Active Member
racer26
Active Member
Except that its a step change - one that's coming by the end of 2017. It will not be a slow ramp from 100k to 500k, it will be going from 25K/Q to 75-100k/Q overnight when the Model 3 production goes online, then a ramp to 125k+/Q as its tuned in.
How about using time to completion of the plan:
The original master plan was posted in 2006, 2 years before Roadster, and nearly 6 years before the volume release of Model S, and 9 years before Model X, and 10-11 years before Model 3. To say that the original Master Plan isn't nearly half done is just patently wrong.
I certainly dispute that. He doesn't ever do anything just to support the stock price. There are many reasons for wanting to push for a profitable quarter.
Here's another way to gain solid insight into M3 efforts--I believe we will have enough information to reasonably conclude if a 2017 launch is feasible by mid-Feb 2017, when the 10-K comes out.
Various milestones in each car's development is required to be reported in the 10-Q/10-K each quarter/year as they are achieved because these are goals tied to stock option vestings - Alpha, Beta and Production. Here's the timeline for Model X:
- 2014 Q3: Alpha X completed
- 2014 Q4: Beta X completed
- 2015 Q3: Production X completed, car launched
- 2016 Q2: Production hell completed, volume deliveries
Here's the timeline for Model 3:
- 2016 Q1: Alpha 3 completed
- ?: Beta 3 completed
- ??: Production 3 completed
Here's my litmus test - if we see a Model 3 beta completion in Q4 (reported in Feb 2017 10-K), regardless of the existence of prototypes in the wild, I'll conclude that a Q3 2017 launch is likely. If we see beta completion in 2017 Q1 (reported in May 2017 10-Q), an end of 2017 launch is likely. If beta completion isn't reported in the May 10-Q, it's probably late and in 2018.
I've repeatedly cautioned against using Model X as a comparator for Model 3, but I think that applies only to the production issues that plagued it from 2015 Q3 - 2016 Q2. The alpha - beta - production curve could look similar.
The X went from alpha to production in 4 quarters and from alpha to volume production in 7 quarters.
The 3 has been in alpha form since 2016 Q1. Add 7 quarters for volume production and you are at 2017 Q4. Now consider that the 3 is built for volume production, it's not overengineered, it's make-or-break and it's borrowing a bunch of tech from S/X.
I'll wait for the 10-K, but I'm predicting an October 2017 launch.
dennis
Model S Plaid
What you said was that in order to support the stock price he published MP2 even though MP1 was not even half done. You exaggerated the status of MP1 to support your conclusion.
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