I read up on the transcript linked in that reference and GM was vague about what kind of OTA updates it will allow. For all we know, it could only still be on the infotainment system. I think they would have to tread cautiously as to not annoy the dealers. Traditionally, it is in the dealership realm to install the fixes/firmware updates. Cutting the dealers out just strengthens the notion that dealers do not like selling EV's as they would not profit from servicing them.
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I read up on the transcript linked in that reference and GM was vague about what kind of OTA updates it will allow. For all we know, it could only still be on the infotainment system. I think they would have to tread cautiously as to not annoy the dealers. Traditionally, it is in the dealership realm to install the fixes/firmware updates. Cutting the dealers out just strengthens the notion that dealers do not like selling EV's as they would not profit from servicing them.
racer26
Active Member
Tesla has not been open about Model 3 at all - primarily for fear of osborning the S/X sales they need in order to finish funding the Model 3 launch. There were absolutely no leaks ahead of the reveal. The public knows about Model 3 exactly what Tesla wants the public to know about it and nothing more.
Showcasing progress might bolster the SP a bit, but why should Tesla care unless they need to raise capital? Better to keep it under wraps and execute unexpectedly.
Alright fine, I give up on that.
I personally would have preferred that Musk talked about a second plan once at least a few Model-3s are rolling off the line. Model-3 was supposed to be the end goal or the actual (only) goal of masterplan-1: accelerating the advent of sustainable transport. All the others were steps into accomplishing it.
Each of Musk's announcements of acceleration and/or more mega goals in-fact turned off the investor community. Look at the stock price. Look at the wall street analyst ratings. Look at the institutional selling.
Musk actually announced acceleration of Model-3 plans when investors/street still haven't seen Model-X production stabilization. What happened, the stock tanked on the news.
With all this show of aggression all investors are seeing is increased risks and increased cash burn. But on the other hand, in investors minds the rewards have a vague/elusive timeline.
I started investing into TSLA since 1Q 2013, before the big spike. I don't know how Model S production/timeline went. I trust people here that it went as announced. But, since I have been following Tesla, it has missed nearly (i'm just hedging, because I don't want to get into proving this, but I think it is 'all') every single publicly announced timeline, big and small. Like even a tiny thing like publishing a blog post to something big like AP rollout.
In any case, waiting over Model-3 just creates a very unnecessary disappointment setup. Come late 17, there will be post after post here expressing frustrations. What's the point?
/rant
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
I think that you're drawing some big conclusions with very flimsy reasons. If they have the capability to do it, they can use it as necessary or desired.
Thanks for the well thought out post.
In my mind though there are two distinct things. One is car being ready. The other is factory line being ready. Your timeline only covers the car part. Don't you think the production bots (even if not general assembly bots, but the production line bots) would have to be installed and ready for testing by a certain time for certain actual production timeline? Maybe we can track that as well?
Oh and your conclusion is somehow more solid? Can you elaborate how you're confident GM can deliver a robust OTA in the same standard as Tesla? How do you think they will navigate around the politics to avoid infuriating their customers? And by customers, I mean the dealers, not the end buyer.
racer26
Active Member
I wouldn't. Tesla is an R+D-heavy growth company - accelerating the advent of sustainable transport is its mission statement. It is (quite successfully) doing that. Without Tesla, there is no Bolt or i3, and there might not even be a Volt or LEAF.
If Musk waited until Model 3 was rolling off the line to talk about what's next, what would his army of R+D employees be doing while production scaled up on their completed Model 3 design?
I agree - it DID turn off the investor community. The investor community is not interested in changing the world for the better. They're interested only in greenbacks. Lots of them. As soon as possible. The funny part is - risk is lower than ever for Tesla right now.
Tesla is built on a mission of changing the world, and while profit will surely come along the way, its not the primary goal. Wall St doesn't understand companies that operate this way.
I'll concede its possible that we don't see a Model 3 launch until 2018, but I really truly doubt it. I agree with you that they've missed many deadlines both big and small. I believe that Model 3 is different. All of the other deadlines are not nearly as important as the Model 3 deadline. Model 3 will quite literally make or break Tesla, and they know that failure is not an option. Others may disagree with me.
Investors routinely make the mistake of making assumptions about Tesla based on their past experience with other automakers, and their past experience with Tesla. Neither are valid for companies like Tesla. Assuming things about Tesla's present based on Tesla's past or the past of other automakers is a strategy fraught with error.
How many bots? We don't have any idea how many are needed for minimal production run.
What if production starts with original S line? Impossible? Or the newer S/X line?
What is certain is that the 500k annual production will need a new production line and hence new bots.
But this is not on a critical path to 2017 production start.
In summary, what I believe the street wants to see, and what I believe Musk will actually show, is a prudent business model. Rushing Model-3 to the exits will be less of a priority to actually getting there profitably, safely, and if possible without having to come to the market for additional cash.
Well, that is my speculation/hope anyway.
Well, that is my speculation/hope anyway.
There are bits of information in the quarterly shareholder letters about the factory line updates. The most recent one being equipment of critical lead time have been sourced. Don't know if those have arrived or not.
3Victoria
Active Member
As stated before, EM is not overly concerned with what the market wants. He is concerned with his goals. He has almost completed his MP1 -- from his point of view all that is left is the implementation. All the interesting bits are mostly done: car design, line design, battery design, SC plan. Hence he has moved onto MP2.
However, he is concerned with having the resources to complete MP1 and being able to proceed to MP2. To this end Tesla needs money, and to this extent SP may matter. However, he has stated that the Model 3 runup will be self sustaining +/- a small amount. I suspect the uncertainty is around the TE ramp. As such, SP is not a concern, since he does not foresee the need to go to the market for a capital raise.
Estimating timelines is always difficult. All projects (and certainly software projects) are well-known to miss all deadlines. EM has repeatedly said that estimating an exponential beginnings to a S curve ramp is particularly difficult. However, my take from the filings and teleconferences is that they remain confident that they are on track. The robot supplier has confirmed that, although it would be challenging, they felt they could deliver.
However, he is concerned with having the resources to complete MP1 and being able to proceed to MP2. To this end Tesla needs money, and to this extent SP may matter. However, he has stated that the Model 3 runup will be self sustaining +/- a small amount. I suspect the uncertainty is around the TE ramp. As such, SP is not a concern, since he does not foresee the need to go to the market for a capital raise.
Estimating timelines is always difficult. All projects (and certainly software projects) are well-known to miss all deadlines. EM has repeatedly said that estimating an exponential beginnings to a S curve ramp is particularly difficult. However, my take from the filings and teleconferences is that they remain confident that they are on track. The robot supplier has confirmed that, although it would be challenging, they felt they could deliver.
Krugerrand
Meow
So, um...you were just making sugar up in your post that Elon was doing all that stuff to prop up the SP because you're actually mad he's consistently done things that depress the SP AND he's quite specifically SAID on multiple occasions he doesn't care about the SP short term and that's messed up your investment thesis.
Waiting on the Model 3 creates are unnecessary disappointment setup? Are you for real? Tesla ACCELERATED the Model 3 time line by a lot.
I don't actually believe anything that Elon or Tesla does will ever satisfy you because it's a) not what you would do, and b) it's not putting as much money in your pocket at a quick enough rate for you.
sub
Active Member
Once again youre claiming to know things you can't possibly know. You have no idea what the "market" thinks of Tesla or TSLA. That is unless of course you personally interviewed every person or entity that held a long or short position in either shares or options. If that is the case I stand corrected and apologize.
In Q3 shareholder letter there was also wording about completion of the production line layouts, including body welding and final assembly lines. This means that these lines were fully designed, required factory floor space allocated, robots were selected and ordered, and all auxiliary utilities (power, etc.) were designed and corresponding equipment sized and ordered as well. I would guess that installation of body welding and final assembly lines either already started or is imminent.
"For Model 3, we have completed production line layouts and will soon begin installation of new body welding and final assembly lines."
Wonder if folks are hoping to spin the "charging for Not charging" issue as a negative. As an investor I take this as a positive. Tesla is trying to get ahead of future problems and develop solutions prior to the Model 3.
dennis
Model S Plaid
Volume dropping off, be interesting to see if we stay green today.
Kenriko
Former Vendor
The Model S and X both had very rough starts getting off the ground but I think the Model 3 will be different and here is why. There is a Lack of NEW with the Model 3, everything has been done before by Tesla.
With the Model S they were bootstrapping an entire factory, the car was not designed for mass production and the processes were not optimized. The Model X had supplier issues, was over engineered (doors) ran into new requirements (towing) etc.. etc.
The Model 3 literally has nothing new that won't be in the S/X first.
1) All of the self driving stuff is currently in production vehicles.
2) The drivetrain motors will likely be the smaller size that's used in the front of the 90D.
3) Battery packs. Duh.
4) Body, nothing special. (no falcon doors, no self presenting doorhandles, nothing like that)
5) Interior, very plain.
6) Computers, mostly using software that's already written.
With the Model S they were bootstrapping an entire factory, the car was not designed for mass production and the processes were not optimized. The Model X had supplier issues, was over engineered (doors) ran into new requirements (towing) etc.. etc.
The Model 3 literally has nothing new that won't be in the S/X first.
1) All of the self driving stuff is currently in production vehicles.
2) The drivetrain motors will likely be the smaller size that's used in the front of the 90D.
3) Battery packs. Duh.
4) Body, nothing special. (no falcon doors, no self presenting doorhandles, nothing like that)
5) Interior, very plain.
6) Computers, mostly using software that's already written.
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