Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[esk8mw]

By this point I think it's officially official that there will not be significant discounts or lease deals for Q4 inventory, given that Tesla would have trouble delivering inventory cars purchased right now before the end of the year (unless a local purchaser).

I wonder what this says for Q4 deliveries? I have to imagine deliveries and demand must be excellent if they aren't doing a thing to boost numbers all quarter. I suppose it's also possible there has been production issues, but all I've heard is a hiccup with AP2 changeover (some reports of deliveries getting pushed back a week earlier this month) and an issue with 5 seaters (since resolved, deliveries starting). Still, I would think there'd be another effort to sell every available unit if production issues had them at risk of missing 25k guidance.

I think margins will surprise as well since prices have increased, AP2, all glass roof, increased delivery fee, no more X60, very little S60 inventory (mostly 75s, with some 90/100), no lease deals and no significant discounting. If opex is held under control we could be seeing pie v2.0.

 

[3Victoria]

Yes, would be nice to warn that it is a click-bait site, even though the title is a give away.

Notice the SP pattern: recurrent downward jabs, timed to discourage buyers.

 

[Driver Dave]

You mean like this?

Tesla Hunting For Spare Change In The Supercharger Sofa Cushions

I never ever had the view that superchargers would be free forever. I mean, duh, of course not.
But definitely still know it will always be way cheaper than gas.
And since it is a competitive advantage, there probably always will in fact be a good bag of free miles that comes with every Tesla.

And of course Tesla is not doing parking fee to nickel and dime customers, they are doing it to solve a real problem of people treating superchargers as parking spaces. To suggest it is a profit center is just stupid.

In the end, it's funny how the author just tries to spin himself as just a "skeptic" when it is obvious he is grasping at straws, making stuff up, just to put out the fake news to drive the stock down.

 

[GoTslaGo]

No way in hell I'm clicking that link ...

Too late, I did it already. But others have pointed out that only viewing the links on desktops are lucrative.

 

[Turing]

The Model S and X both had very rough starts getting off the ground but I think the Model 3 will be different and here is why. There is a Lack of NEW with the Model 3, everything has been done before by Tesla.

With the Model S they were bootstrapping an entire factory, the car was not designed for mass production and the processes were not optimized. The Model X had supplier issues, was over engineered (doors) ran into new requirements (towing) etc.. etc.

The Model 3 literally has nothing new that won't be in the S/X first.

1) All of the self driving stuff is currently in production vehicles.

2) The drivetrain motors will likely be the smaller size that's used in the front of the 90D.

3) Battery packs. Duh.

4) Body, nothing special. (no falcon doors, no self presenting doorhandles, nothing like that)

5) Interior, very plain.

6) Computers, mostly using software that's already written.

Tesla has also gotten really good at building the Model S sedan, model 3 having similarities, but easier to manufacture. The real unknown here seems to be how the ramping from 2k/wk to 10k/wk will go, and what gross margins will look like. But if Tesla can get to 2k/wk by the end of 2017, that seems bullish considering most analysts are assuming major delays.

 

[I Am Rolling]

Reading this thread (not all pages since it goes in such a pace) it feels like many are underestimating how hard it is to ramp up production in the auto-industry. I'm worried to be honest.

Thinking about selling 20% of my shares, TSLA totals 20% of my portfolio which is a bit too much me thinks...

Good or bad idea to sell 20% at this moment??

 

[geneclean55]

Yes, would be nice to warn that it is a click-bait site, even though the title is a give away.

Notice the SP pattern: recurrent downward jabs, timed to discourage buyers.

Not so sure about that. Very disciplined, methodical selling from 1.30 onwards on the 5min chart. More characteristic of a large holder selling. I wonder if MM are burning off any options plays that people jumped into on Friday after we overcame a few technical hurdles.

 

[geneclean55]

GM idling multiple plants in January due to inventory back-log apparently

 

[generalenthu]

I have not seen any good VIN counting based analysis here on whether we will hit 25k in q4. Going in to year end, I'd suggest plenty of caution. One thing to keep in mind is this is the q when SCTY financials are merged and there are likely to be a lot of integration costs baked into this quarter. This will likely cause gaap profitability to be negative, even if TSLA beats on deliveries. If the quarter is gaap negative, why bother offering discounts on inventory cars. There is presumably enough backlog on p100ds and 5 seater X's, and the yet to be announced 100D. Tesla could keep building those and wait for the inventory to be drawn down. This could also mean tesla could choose not stretch to meet its target.

Not being a negative Nancy, just trying to temper some of the unwarranted enthusiasm (IMO) here, that tesla is all set to beat.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Reading this thread (not all pages since it goes in such a pace) it feels like many are underestimating how hard it is to ramp up production in the auto-industry. I'm worried to be honest.

Thinking about selling 20% of my shares, TSLA totals 20% of my portfolio which is a bit too much me thinks...

Good or bad idea to sell 20% at this moment??

I'm going to guess that most here would think that's bad, especially with all the potential positives that some are expecting (Q4 deliveries, TE revenue, 2017 guidance, etc.). But it's ultimately your decision as you know your finances best.

My unsolicited advise is "NO!" Have a good day!

 

[esk8mw]

I have not seen any good VIN counting based analysis here on whether we will hit 25k in q4. Going in to year end, I'd suggest plenty of caution. One thing to keep in mind is this is the q when SCTY financials are merged and there are likely to be a lot of integration costs baked into this quarter. This will likely cause gaap profitability to be negative, even if TSLA beats on deliveries. If the quarter is gaap negative, why bother offering discounts on inventory cars. There is presumably enough backlog on p100ds and 5 seater X's, and the yet to be announced 100D. Tesla could keep building those and wait for the inventory to be drawn down. This could also mean tesla could choose not stretch to meet its target.

Not being a negative Nancy, just trying to temper some of the unwarranted enthusiasm (IMO) here, that tesla is all set to beat.

You can't use VIN counting to solidly project deliveries. However, I've posted several VIN counting analyses here showing that VINs are being handed out at an unprecedented rate for both S and X, suggesting demand (and probably production) are quite healthy.

 

[erthquake]

The Model S and X both had very rough starts getting off the ground but I think the Model 3 will be different and here is why. There is a Lack of NEW with the Model 3, everything has been done before by Tesla.

With the Model S they were bootstrapping an entire factory, the car was not designed for mass production and the processes were not optimized. The Model X had supplier issues, was over engineered (doors) ran into new requirements (towing) etc.. etc.

The Model 3 literally has nothing new that won't be in the S/X first.

1) All of the self driving stuff is currently in production vehicles.

2) The drivetrain motors will likely be the smaller size that's used in the front of the 90D.

3) Battery packs. Duh.

4) Body, nothing special. (no falcon doors, no self presenting doorhandles, nothing like that)

5) Interior, very plain.

6) Computers, mostly using software that's already written.

I would add the possible/likely HUD as something new. I but don't view it as being particularly difficult to implement.

 

[CorneliusXX]

U

I'm going to guess that most here would think that's bad, especially with all the potential positives that some are expecting (Q4 deliveries, TE revenue, 2017 guidance, etc.). But it's ultimately your decision as you know your finances best.

My unsolicited advise is "F**K NO!" Have a good day!

Umm...i believe your advice was solicited

 

[erthquake]

Reading this thread (not all pages since it goes in such a pace) it feels like many are underestimating how hard it is to ramp up production in the auto-industry. I'm worried to be honest.

Thinking about selling 20% of my shares, TSLA totals 20% of my portfolio which is a bit too much me thinks...

Good or bad idea to sell 20% at this moment??

Using ICE auto industry as an analog for Model 3 ramp is probably inappropriate. The 3 is a much simpler car than any ICE car, as well as any other Tesla for that matter. Tesla has specifically designed the 3 to be easy to build and thus ramp.

 

[zzziii]

Mateo Jaramillo, VP of products and programs at Tesla Energy, is leaving Tesla

 

[Bgarret]

I have not seen any good VIN counting based analysis here on whether we will hit 25k in q4. Going in to year end, I'd suggest plenty of caution. One thing to keep in mind is this is the q when SCTY financials are merged and there are likely to be a lot of integration costs baked into this quarter. This will likely cause gaap profitability to be negative, even if TSLA beats on deliveries. If the quarter is gaap negative, why bother offering discounts on inventory cars. There is presumably enough backlog on p100ds and 5 seater X's, and the yet to be announced 100D. Tesla could keep building those and wait for the inventory to be drawn down. This could also mean tesla could choose not stretch to meet its target.

Not being a negative Nancy, just trying to temper some of the unwarranted enthusiasm (IMO) here, that tesla is all set to beat.

General, Sir....good, thoughtful post. Tesla does have a history of "bundling" bad news in certain quarters to try to get the baby and the bath water all out at once. If anyone has any insight on the impact of SCTY's financials on TSLA Q4, please, don't think we would prefer to hear it from the horse's mouth.

That being said, I am with the cautiously optimistic group this time - I feel Tesla has rectified some of their production hiccups and will make the 25k+ along with the increase in Gross Margin associated with the upgrades/options that has been discussed previously. I have invested accordingly, along with cash in case your thoughtful, contrarian position turns out to be option B.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Hey! This is a regular TMC poster. Tesla Model S head-on collision with Soviet-era Crane Truck: Tesla driver escapes with injured knee, is otherwise ‘OK’

Glad you are OK, Mario.

Eh, hadn't noticed our incident made global news. Haven't been on TMC today for obvious reasons as tons of stuff to arrange with the car and police etc.

The driver is fine, picked him up,from hospital ca 4h after the crash, they mostly had him in for safety checks. He's a tall guy, over 2m so getting hit where he did and with some interior compression he had some pressure on his feet, but nothing's broken, just some bruising that'll heal in a week or two. The crane hit the car straight in the A pilar flying it some good 30+ meters.

The report of a passenger is accurate, he was taken to a hospital as well, but I don't know about his state, last I heard they kept him overnight for observations, but from what I understood his life is not in danger.

Now as to why it all happened it's still investigated, the Tesla started to drive as the driver is sure his signal turned green, yet the other driver claims it was green too and police seem to corraborate his story. Driver didn't see the crane as there was a truck to his left blocking the view and the crash happened as he cleared the truck so no time to react.

I have to say, being on-site and seeing the car I'm pretty glad we only rent Teslas or I would have had a dead customer this morning... i think the battery pack helped keep the cabin in shape as the massive crane plowed into it. Of course luck was involved too as I doubt it'd have been as lucky if the crane had hit straight to driver door.

No matter who was guilty, the car is covered by insurance and the important part is that all involved are alive. We're already looking at inventory cars as we're hard pressed with cars right now and it'll just depend when the insurance makes the payout...

Again, lucky it was a Tesla, many people commented that any other car and the ambulance could only have pronounced the time...

 

[Papafox]

By this point I think it's officially official that there will not be significant discounts or lease deals for Q4 inventory, given that Tesla would have trouble delivering inventory cars purchased right now before the end of the year (unless a local purchaser).

I wonder what this says for Q4 deliveries? I have to imagine deliveries and demand must be excellent if they aren't doing a thing to boost numbers all quarter. I suppose it's also possible there has been production issues, but all I've heard is a hiccup with AP2 changeover (some reports of deliveries getting pushed back a week earlier this month) and an issue with 5 seaters (since resolved, deliveries starting). Still, I would think there'd be another effort to sell every available unit if production issues had them at risk of missing 25k guidance.

I think margins will surprise as well since prices have increased, AP2, all glass roof, increased delivery fee, no more X60, very little S60 inventory (mostly 75s, with some 90/100), no lease deals and no significant discounting. If opex is held under control we could be seeing pie v2.0.

Nice list of margin-increasing changes... don't forget mandatory air suspension on X, though.

 

[austinEV]

If Elon was worried about 4th quarter delivery numbers and earnings, would he be musing publicly about starting a tunneling company?

He might, if he knew there was nothing extra to be done.

Oh my god, it's horrendous. Nobody will ever buy it for a penny. Perhaps the intent is to exclusively use such vehicles for ride hailing.

It looks like an "Onion" parody!

Sorry guys, I don't believe into the theory that somehow Tesla is very secretly making tons of progress.

For one, Tesla has been very open about progress on Model 3. See the Q3 shareholder letter.

Secondly, Tesla and Musk has everything to gain from showcasing progress and gaining credibility into the timeline. Especially in the context of the biggest bull on Wall Street dismissing 2017 deliveries and much of 2018.

Let’s face it, Musk has tried his very very best to support the stock price in Q3. All the way to writing masterplan duex, when masterplan-1 is not half done, to showing off solar roofs that are nowhere near production and it's not clear if even a demo system would work that day.
Why would he all of a sudden turn shy on model-3 details? That doesn't make much sense.

Beating around model-3 creates an unnecessary bubble of expectations. If TMC has any reach at all, it's much better to have lower expectations (in line with the Street) and hopefully positively surprised (if ever).

I have several issues with AJ's projections as it surrounds the ramp. For example why is he expecting a decline in S+X run rate? Demand problems? How on earth would he know? With deliveries around the globe, demand is exceptionally hard to assess. If anything VIN numbers are showing increase in demand.

BUT, assessing the beginning of Model-3 production is exceptionally simple. All he has to do is call up a few key suppliers and ask very simple questions, say for example, "where are the bots?"

Do you think a person of AJ's profile is shooting darts on this? I suspect he is making educated guesses and probably better guesses than anyone of us with no reach into the supply chain.

On Model 3 progress: (Have we heard anyone reporting from recent factory tours?)

There are 2 (or more) possible paths to model 3 production. The normal one that I was led to believe in based on a July factory tour, is that they would build model 3 in a yet-to-be-built line on the Fremont floor. BUT they don't have to. The BIW line #1 was designed to be versatile but slow. The BIW line #2 was designed to be efficient with more robots and more specialization. In July Model S was built on the line#1 and Model X was built on line #2, but line #2 was designed to be able to do S/X mixed. They had not done so yet, but at the time they were just exiting model X production Hell so they had other priorities. It isn't unreasonable to think that they have started mixing in S on line #2, which means they could just retool #1 to make model 3 exclusively. Just knowing that the 3 is simpler and takes fewer steps the line#1 could even be expected to have a decent output. In that case, they would still be building out the high volume model 3 line, but these might be in parallel. They could be building the model 3 line and model 3's at the same time in 2017.

The problem with this theory is that it doesn't solve the final assembly portion. The current final assembly was the bottleneck so just heaping on model 3's doesn't solve anything.

That is, unless the model 3 interior was designed to be assembled exclusively with the robots, as I do. This is consistent with Elon's various comments about efficiency, eliminating humans from the line, etc. So maybe the "BIW #1" is just going to be reconfigured to be the model 3 BIW/assembly line.

I mean, what else is the plan for that BIW #1 space? Why not earmark it as the place where the new model is built until it's optimized line is made? That is essentially what did the first time.

 

[Kenriko]

Interesting trading pattern leading up to the close, looks like someone unwinding their position.