racer26
Active Member
What does the cross shaped footnote on that page say?
I'm guessing something along the lines of "Tesla doesn't release this data so this is an estimate".
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I'm guessing something along the lines of "Tesla doesn't release this data so this is an estimate".
Today's and Friday's trading is being influenced by several factors:
* Some profit taking right before the uncertainty of the Q4 delivery numbers
* Net short covering out of fear that Q4 delivery numbers might be good
* SP teetering on the edge of 200 Day MA, which implies volatility in either direction
* End of year trading, which might be used for selling TSLA for investors with a loss if that same investor has gains in other stocks he wishes to offset for tax purposes
* Speculators may be loading up on Friday in anticipation of Q4 delivery numbers and Jan 4 event
* Some profit taking right before the uncertainty of the Q4 delivery numbers
* Net short covering out of fear that Q4 delivery numbers might be good
* SP teetering on the edge of 200 Day MA, which implies volatility in either direction
* End of year trading, which might be used for selling TSLA for investors with a loss if that same investor has gains in other stocks he wishes to offset for tax purposes
* Speculators may be loading up on Friday in anticipation of Q4 delivery numbers and Jan 4 event
"Vehicle assembled in United States unless otherwise noted", so this number likely includes cars assembled in Tilburg.
These numbers, if correct, actually do not look good. In Q1 - Q3 Tesla produced 15,510 + 18,345 + 25185 = 59,040 cars. If the Automotive News production through November of 74,740 is correct, that means that in October production was 8,500 cars, November - 7,200. Which in turn means that in order to hit 25k production in Q4 Tesla need to produce 9,300 cars in little over three weeks. I hope that their numbers are pulled out of this air and no good...
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There is probably going to be pull to close the gap to $213.45 in the morning, hopefully we can go up from there. Here is how Fidelity borrowing looked today:
erthquake
Active Member
Is a European car considered "produced" when it leaves Fremont, or after it is assembled in Tilburg? If the latter, then how long does it take to be finished in Tilburg after it leaves Fremont? Might some or many of the European production come in December?
That is a good point, we simply do not know what Automotive News number includes. Most of the cars slated for Europe were completed in Fremont by mid of November, with, I would guess, half of them assembled in first two weeks of December in Tilburg. At least UK cars are assembled in US, not Tilburg; may be other countries (Norway?) as well, do not recall at the moment...
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
The production line was shutdown for two weeks in October.
vgrinshpun pulled the Nov 7,200 from the article, and back calculated the Oct production of 8500 cars. If 2.5 weeks of Oct production yielded 8500 cars, then why did 3 weeks of Nov production only yield 7,200? AP2.0 production issues? I agree with vgrinshpun and hope that it's only because these numbers were pulled out of the air and don't actually line up with actual production for those months.
UNLESS, there's a 1 week (maybe 2 weeks) lag between when production starts for the AP2 cars, and when the finished product is counted as "produced"? That would account for the lower production numbers for Nov vs. Oct.
racer26
Active Member
Something definitely doesn't add up here. Occam's razor says it's that these numbers are made up.
I'm pretty sure Norway deliveries still bypass Tilburg since Norway is outside EU and unaffected by auto tariffs. Maybe Switzerland too, but less sure there. UK hasn't Brexited yet. Anyway, Norway numbers say nothing about the status at Tilburg.
All this worry about tesla meeting its numbers. Is Elin acting like a guy who's about to deliver poor numbers?
You'll know it's bad when Elon is quiet in the lead up to a release
Thanks for the clarification on that. I doubt they do separate shipments to multiple European sites though (UK may be an exception...). I would think they combine European deliveries to decrease per unit cost, it's just that Norwegian, Swiss and UK cars may arrive fully assembled.
I think we are all hoping that's a good sign... Still, you can't help but try and do the math towards the end of the quarter with the data you have to try and read the tealeaves a few days before we actually learn the truth.
Norwegian cars don't go through Tilburg. They are sometimes (always?) unloaded from one ship and loaded onto another ship in the Netherlands, but they don't need to go to Tilburg for that.
Right. And no one disagrees with that. I was just saying they probably all come on the same ship to Europe to optimize cost. Seeing healthy numbers in Norway should then bode well for EU deliveries as it implies the shipments arrived on schedule. That's all I'm saying. We don't see daily numbers out of other European countries so those are the breadcrumbs we have to work with.
Mike Smith
Active Member
July 1 2017 is only 26 weeks away. Model 3 is probably past the point now where major delay causing issues are likely to arise. I don't think the market is going to care much if Q4 delivery numbers miss due to AP2 installation issues (a product they're currently selling for $9000 without it even working yet). Remember Q2 was a massive miss but tsla went up due to investors looking forward.
Meeting Q4 delivery guidance is very important. If there is a big miss, there will be zero trust in 2017 annual guidance. Financials will turn dramatically negative as well, as fixed costs overwhelm a smaller base of revenues. Stock price will tank badly and Musk can kiss any of his capital raise plans a goodbye.
This is all just one big short fantasy.
In my opinion, if there was a severe impact due to AP 2.0 then Musk would have said so on Q3 ER CC. It is something that is easy to explain and investors would be tolerant given how big of a deal AP 2.0 is. As far as I can tell there was no caution expressed at all on the CC.
Sure Musk and management weren't forthcoming on the X production issues in earlier quarters. But that was a bad mess and it was hard to express and ask for tolerance. AP 2.0 is not a bad mess, it is an investment. So Musk and company should have felt lot more comfortable explaining a production slowdown (which they didn't). So my interpretation is that they are comfortable in giving out the ~25K delivery guidance.
This is all just one big short fantasy.
In my opinion, if there was a severe impact due to AP 2.0 then Musk would have said so on Q3 ER CC. It is something that is easy to explain and investors would be tolerant given how big of a deal AP 2.0 is. As far as I can tell there was no caution expressed at all on the CC.
Sure Musk and management weren't forthcoming on the X production issues in earlier quarters. But that was a bad mess and it was hard to express and ask for tolerance. AP 2.0 is not a bad mess, it is an investment. So Musk and company should have felt lot more comfortable explaining a production slowdown (which they didn't). So my interpretation is that they are comfortable in giving out the ~25K delivery guidance.
To be honest, I get concerned when Tesla schedules an event/announcement a few days around their financial/delivery release. E.g Gigafactory launch on July 29, a few days before Q2 earnings. Now the Jan 4 event, which will be about a day after delivery numbers....Maybe its a coincidence, but this gets me worried 
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