Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[pGo]

Yeah, I don't expect them either. But the stores open tomorrow morning so if you want to be first in line then camping is the way to go

I don't expect crazy lines like iPhone launches. The reason is that iPhone costs $600 and lines are there to get the product instantly with all known features. Apple sells like 10M iPhones worldwide in the first weekend.

In comparison, the Model 3 will start at 35K, and is not seen by anyone. I do expect crowd in the morning, specially the ones waiting since long time to get a Tesla.. and then steady stream of folks coming in whole day. Lines may fade away in the afternoon. Then it all becomes online once Model 3 is announced.

 

[ssq]

April 15 $250 seem ripe to exit now(3.4$ entry). Going into tomorrow may not be worth it, I was expecting closer to 240 open today.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

April 15 $250 seem ripe to exit now(3.4$ entry). Going into tomorrow may not be worth it, I was expecting closer to 240 open today.

Congrats.

Seeing as to how this is my "lottery" play, I'm holding mine a bit longer.

 

[ssq]

Congrats.

Seeing as to how this is my "lottery" play, I'm holding mine a bit longer.

What's your anticipated exit price and timeline (tentative)?

 

[NOLA_Mike]

What's your anticipated exit price and timeline (tentative)?

I don't really have one on these shares (hence my use of the term "lottery ticket") - for me it's just a relatively small position that I can hold through the reveal in case we get some crazy price action.

 

[Krugerrand]

People don't change their minds overnight with ~35k purchases.

'Some' people and not because it's a $35k purchase, but because a) they're afraid of change, b) they don't feel compelled to change because of indifference, lack of knowledge/education, or fear, or c) they're waiting for someone else to go first (because they're afraid).

It's okay that some people are going to take more convincing on the EV front like your sister, and it's okay that some will eventually be forced that way because nothing else exists. None of that changes what's coming.

 

[Krugerrand]

... AND he reveals expected Q1 delivery numbers (3-4 days early..

Not a chance. Makes no sense to talk Q1 anything at Model ≡ reveal. The event is solely about the car and getting THAT information out there.

 

[techmaven]

Wow, really weak action right now even as the NASDAQ is up and various other stocks like Apple are up over 2%. Weak longs getting out too early?

 

[jhm]

The really interesting thing about this statement...



..is that it mirrors John Petersen's thesis exactly! His constant diatribes against Tesla (and all BEVs) was that it was a waste to take a "scarce" kWh and build a BEV out of them, when that same kWh would be better for the world in a hybrid. Of course then he was really trying to push AXPW's lead acid batteries for hybrids, because they weren't suited for BEVs, but the thesis isn't wrong if, like John, you presume that kWh's are "scarce".

Ha! I don't think of batteries as "scarce." But it will take about 4 years to quintuple the global supply from 1.2 TWh to 6 TWh, and this can make the difference between oil entering structural decline by 2025 or by 2021. Either way, we'll get there; it's only a question of how quickly. So the oil industry needs to keep the price of oil low primarily to impeded uptake of plug-in hybrids as the most immediate threat.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Wow, really weak action right now even as the NASDAQ is up and various other stocks like Apple are up over 2%. Weak longs getting out too early?

Traders taking profits. Nothing unusual.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Tesla issued a statement striking down the blatant desinformation spreading from Seeking Alpha character Montana Skeptic, that was picked up in the media.

Tesla stated that the factory always was planned in phases and the first phase is ahead of schedule both in construction and production.

 

[austinEV]

Another "market perform" day. Wow. Now we can say there was no run-up to this announcement at all. This is really the best case scenario if you want a buy-the-news reaction.

 

[Curt Renz]

Wow, really weak action right now even as the NASDAQ is up and various other stocks like Apple are up over 2%. Weak longs getting out too early?

It’s been typical amateur hour behavior for the TSLA share price this morning. Indeed, weak longs familiar with selloffs after scheduled announcements may be getting cold feet. More shorts could be piling on in expectation of Friday selling on the news. Hedge funds could be putting pressure on the stock this morning in anticipation of buying cheaply this afternoon.

However, the potential wide acceptance of the Model 3 is such a huge factor in TSLA valuation, that large reservation numbers, possibly suggested by long queues in front of Tesla stores tomorrow, could provide the shock and awe that propels the share price much higher. This time there may be significant buying on the news. Elon’s tweet yesterday implies that he already knows something about strong Model 3 demand.

 

[SBenson]

Tesla issued a statement striking down the blatant desinformation spreading from Seeking Alpha character Montana Skeptic, that was picked up in the media.

Tesla stated that the factory always was planned in phases and the first phase is ahead of schedule both in construction and production.

"Tesla stated" looks like a link but it's not working. Where is it posted?

 

[Ukland Wombat]

It’s been typical amateur hour behavior for TSLA this morning. Indeed, weak longs familiar with selloffs after scheduled announcements may be getting cold feet. More shorts could be piling on in expectation of Friday selling on the news. Hedge funds could be putting pressure on the stock this morning in anticipation of buying cheaply this afternoon.

However, the potential wide acceptance of the Model 3 is such a huge factor in TSLA valuation, that large reservation numbers possibly suggested by long queues in front of Tesla stores tomorrow could provide the shock and awe that propels the share price. This time there may be significant buying on the news. Elon’s tweet yesterday implies that he already knows something about strong Model 3 demand.

Thanks Curt...

on that, I just want to add that EM's tweet also carries a tacit message:

"Don't be discouraged from getting in line at Tesla stores all over the world, we will be increasing production so you will still be able to receive your M3 within a reasonable time, even if you are not first in line when the doors open."

All good in my opinion, to juice up reservations numbers, and the spectacle of longer lines.

 

[mikevbf]

A translated (poorly by google) from German article with maybe the first Model 3 leak. Even if it is under a cover, I can tell at least it is not a weirdmobile. I am feeling very optimistic if this is real:
Google Translate

 

[replicant]

Deliberate leak of a cloaked Model 3 in Wired Germany:

 

[vgrinshpun]

"Tesla stated" looks like a link but it's not working. Where is it posted?

Thanks, I fixed the link in original post:

Tesla denies claims that the Gigafactory is late and states that it’s still ahead of schedule on both construction and production

 

[austinEV]

A translated (poorly by google) from German article with maybe the first Model 3 leak. Even if it is under a cover, I can tell at least it is not a weirdmobile. I am feeling very optimistic if this is real:
Google Translate

I don't want to be one of those owners "who go on the biscuit after a few months" after buying the model 3.

 

[Johan]

Deliberate leak of a cloaked Model 3 in Wired Germany:

Wow. Look at those high wheel arches over the front wheels. Beautiful, makes me think of Fisker Karma or (my forever favorite car) early 1970s Corvette Stingray. Promising silhouette - it's been my hope all along that Tesla "play it safe" with the design, or as Julian so eloquently put it: If you're going to bend metal you might as well bend it pretty.