Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Hogfighter]

I must admit, I'll be a touch surprised if we see a capital raise anytime soon. TSLA's bank account is growing leaps and bounds in the next few weeks, interest-free.

 

[Sancho]

About 300 so far here in Skokie, Illinois. Line moved very quickly. By the time I got there they only had half a cookie left, so I hope that's not the treat Elon was alluding to.

Congratulations to the longs. And to the planet.

 

[sub]

Well over 400 at Rocklin now.

 

[perk239]

15 minutes to open in Phoenix, over 400 in line, I hesitate to speak in an excited state but this looks like a watershed moment to me.

What number ticket did u get? I am near the front here in Phoenix. I have waited in line for a few things in my life but have never seen anything like this.

 

[larmor]

agree-- people aren't fans of TM and musk randomly. They like the products. Also, people are not stupid, they are waiting in line, since, if a large company (ies) buys out huge orders, real people still need a car and don't want to wait behind large company orders...

AN

Martin, please be careful with this. IMO the Sell On the News thesis is the suckers bet.

Putting on a Seeking Alpha style bearish hat for a minute (not a good fit I can tell you) - Watching Musk's sheep answer his call to line up in shopping malls for a stock pumping photo op /hat off. Is NOT the news.

The news is that Tesla has undeniably and self-evidently broken the ICE technology moat on automotive, forever - that's the news. You could not convince a short to anticipate this news on the rumor even if you paid him and most longs would find this to be a proposition worthy of skepticism too.

The shorts will have to wear this breach of denial like an hat tonight and it will be pulled all the way down to their ankles come Monday. We may even get treated to concession speeches from other auto maker CEOs over the weekend with pitiable pleas for consumer calm and forbearance while they try to do what they can to catch up.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

What number ticket did u get? I am near the front here in Phoenix. I have waited in line for a few things in my life but have never seen anything like this.

Number 189, also someone just proposed to their gf while in line.

 

[30seconds]

The other part about releasing numbers, maybe tonight, maybe in a week, is that I think it will help Telsa's negotiations for the next GF or factory site, both from a government stance as well as a financing stance. In other words, if it will help accelerate tesla's next factory then I fully expect the numbers to come out.

 

[lango]

So 30k in-store reservations assuming 150 on average per store and then one order of mag for online combined with SpaceX and Tesla and you get 330k reservations in total. Very high number but it is the best prediction I can come up with.

 

[BobSk]

I must admit, I'll be a touch surprised if we see a capital raise anytime soon. TSLA's bank account is growing leaps and bounds in the next few weeks, interest-free.

I agree. An analyst mentioned that Tesla said will not need to raise money. Unless Elon wants to expend model 3 and Gigafactory in a major way.

 

[Johan]

So 30k in-store reservations assuming 150 on average per store and then one order of mag for online combined with SpaceX and Tesla and you get 330k reservations in total. Very high number but it is the most accurate prediction I can come up with.

I've been thinking 10x online reservations in the first 24h as a ballpark figure. (10 times the in-person in-store total) as well. I have no basis for this other than my gut!

 

[InTheShadows]

Today's chart reminds me of 2013.

I just checked and all of my valve stems are aligned and pointing up. So we should have a good finish to the day.

 

[SBenson]

Wikipedia History of iPhone page shows a picture of people waiting in line.

Can someone get wikipedia to post a picture of people in line on Tesla's page?

I don't know how wikipedia works or what it takes to get it edited. If someone has prior experience it may be faster.

 

[BobSk]

I've been thinking 10x online reservations in the first 24h as a ballpark figure. (10 times the in-person in-store total) as well. I have no basis for this other than my gut!

It's very difficult to predict the ratio of online/store reservation. The CNBC poll indicates the total number will be very large. On the other hand, I think those who really wanted to reserve should have gone to the store already. Anyway, 2:1 seems to be a safe bet.

 

[Sancho]

Based on the in-store reservations today, there is likely to be north of a quarter of a million reservations in the first 24 hours. How much more really won't change the big picture conclusion that can't be rationally denied any longer: TM is disrupting the auto industry on a massive scale and fast pace.

 

[BriansTesla]

Wife just got to the Bellevue Mall. I had warned her that there might be several hundred people but she says it looks like 1,000 on two levels.

 

[SBenson]

First major newspaper report focusing exclusively on the lines by Washington Post

Tesla fans are waiting in line to buy a car that they haven’t even seen yet

 

[jhm]

What are you reserving? I thought your car was to arrive before month end?

We're taking delivery on Saturday.

 

[JRP3]

I must admit, I'll be a touch surprised if we see a capital raise anytime soon. TSLA's bank account is growing leaps and bounds in the next few weeks, interest-free.

Not only do you get a reservation for a Model 3 but also a chance to kick the shorts in the.....shorts.

 

[lango]

I've been thinking 10x online reservations in the first 24h as a ballpark figure. (10 times the in-person in-store total) as well. I have no basis for this other than my gut!

Yeah, my 330k number is before production starts in 2017. But it might very well be too low

 

[Johan]

It's very difficult to predict the ratio of online/store reservation. The CNBC poll indicates the total number will be very large. On the other hand, I think those who really wanted to reserve should have gone to the store already. Anyway, 2:1 seems to be a safe bet.

Seems too safe IMO. Geography alone (difficulty in getting to a store without traveling too far) would easily take care of x2-4 IMO. Then you have all those interested and willing, just not THAT interested that they'll take some of their (valuable) time to physically stand in line. Then those who want to see it before reserving. Then you have all those who will learn about M3 by reading about and seeing pictures of people standing in line. Then you have all of those who will learn about the future existence of M3 for the first time tomorrow, together with pictures of the car and basic specs.