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I think you can add another 2-3x people who are really interested but can't get off work...
MartinAustin
Active Member
I feel like the Eye Of Sauron briefly shone on me and passed by.... phew.
I believe we are totally on the same page. I'm only saying that the traditional "sell on the news" phase has already begun. It's not starting at market-open tomorrow morning, it's happening throughout the day today. Investors (bulls and bears) can speculate all they want about hypothetical future demand, but seeing thousands of buyers lining up all around the world for a car is undeniable evidence of future success.
In fact in a rare move, I will echo what Trip Chowdry says. Multiplying the reservation numbers by $35,000 (or $37,800 to include taxes and delivery) gets you a very big cashpile that members of the public are committing to spend. (I'm going to assume a 100% take-up... there aren't a lot of people who routinely wait hours in line and drop $1,000 only to take it back months later) 10,000 reservations is $378million committed - which is money taken out of the grasp of other automakers. 100,000 reservations is nearly $4billion!!!
I fear I may be in need of someone to talk me out of going all in on stock? This is greatly exceeding my expectations. Unprecedented doesn't begin to describe this.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
You can add me to this group. I would be in line right now if I can get off work (and I might have to do overtime tonight too). I guess it is online reservation for me (will try to rush home to do it or use my phone if need be).
A few minutes later - by Bloomberg
Tesla Buyers Wait in Lines Hundreds Deep to Place $1,000 Reservations on a Model 3
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
I believe the conversation rate will be below 50% but it doesn't matter that much, they'll be construction constrained for the first few years regardless.
US lines seem to be averaging 500 or so, at store open. I think 100,000 in 24 hours will be low.
This may already be priced in, based on BMW market cap and cars sold Tesla is priced as if it is delivering 1M cars a year.
I'm holding though because I think Tesla in the long run will reap much larger margins then other automakers and I think it is very likely that Tesla will continue to branch out into new markets, like Tesla Energy. Basically I'm putting my money that Elon will use Tesla and its cash flow and ability to raise capital to keep making things like this happen.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
jhm
Well-Known Member
This was not a deposit. It was a final payment on our MS 70D with delivery Saturday. At least the cash flow will show up in Q1.
The delivery specialist wanted us to take delivery today, but we could not swing that with our schedules. The parking lot at the Tesla store is all packed up today. I'm glad we're not in the middle of that.
MartinAustin
Active Member
One other thing... I think the consensus is that the Q1 Deliveries Estimate isn't due until Monday April 4th. Tesla could keep the momentum going by releasing the estimates number tomorrow April 1st, so there would be a ton of Tesla news. (actual figures have historically been revised upwards 0.25% or so during earnings release)
Just an anecdata point: I am fortunate to be working from home and on my own time, mostly. Unfortunate in having a bad door handle needing a warranty repair, and a 90 minutes drive to SeC Gothenburg. However, thanks to a cunning plan
I got a repair time slot on March 31, around 10AM when the store opened (garage opens earlier).Got there around 9.30 on a cold foggy morning. Several dozen waiting outside, maybe 50-80 (hard to estimate, didn't look close, bad weather, wanting to get my car fixed). A sales rep at the gate ushered us into the service area and the service rep took the car in and gave us a loaner, for three signatures.
When I came back with the loaner (P90DL!) at 1PM, the line had just dissolved. They told me the max was about 120 people at a time, and a total of several hundred so far. One guy was just making a reservation when my car key was returned, but another sales rep jumped out from the lounge and took care of my reservation, so no time lost - and little lost in terms of eventual delivery.
All in all, a nice outing to a couple of parks watching the spring blooms and to the classic, refurbished indoor market for a very nice cheese.* Sun came out occasionally, only about four raindrops. I'm tired but happy.
* PS: Not to neglect the even more classic Fish Church for some seafood salad to go! Yum.
Translation please? Even Google doesn't work.
Shame on Google! This is high school math. "Thus it is demonstrated."
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
If the data about people in line is accurate, Tesla may have received deposits for more than 100,000 vehicles from people waiting in line, who have not seen the vehicle. Beginning to think 100,000 was far too conservative a figure. Elon's comment about being inspired by interest in the Model 3 is very interesting.
What will Elon's token gift to those in line be?
A) Free Battery storage
B) $1000 off the final purchase price.
C) A ton of Tesla merchandise.
D) An invitation to a party hosted by Elon.
Or something else altogether?
What will Elon's token gift to those in line be?
A) Free Battery storage
B) $1000 off the final purchase price.
C) A ton of Tesla merchandise.
D) An invitation to a party hosted by Elon.
Or something else altogether?
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