Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Fallenone]

Good call, Tentonine. The heads up display would explain the lack of gauges for speed, etc.in front of the driver. Making the driver look way off to the right side to see critical info makes no sense. I'm with you on this.

For those of you who don't know what a heads-up display is, it was introduced on airplanes in an attempt to display critical information on a transparent panel in the pilot's line-of-sight between his eyes and the direction the airplane is traveling. On an instrument approach, the pilot could be monitoring the approach while simultaneously looking for the runway behind the display. A heads-up display would have similar benefits for drivers, because you wouldn't have to allow your eyes to leave the road to view speed and critical information, thus making driving safer (and much cooler).

I'm not familiar with the HUD tech. Will it be difficult to produce or easy to have glitches, etc.? In other words, between HUD and traditional dashboard, which is easier to ensure mass production with lower defect product rate?

I guess I'm a little fancy-phobia now, after the fancy FWD

 

[sundaymorning]

OMFG

The late 2017 launch is the bloody April. Fools Joke.

What time is it on Wall Street and in Dearbourn and Detroit and across Germany and in Osaka at 8:30 PM March 31st in California?

Hey Julian, can you elaborate?

 

[Papafox]

I'm not familiar with the HUD tech. Will it be difficult to produce or easy to have glitches, etc.? In other words, between HUD and traditional dashboard, which is easier to ensure mass production with lower defect product rate?

I guess I'm a little fancy-phobia now, after the fancy FWD

Judging from experience with airplanes, a HUD has the potential to be very reliable. A HUD is basically a projection system, where a digital image is somehow shown on a transparent surface. While the system takes some time to engineer just right, it should be easy to produce and should be as reliable as most digital displays. There's really no moving parts, it's just a fancy display.

In jetliners, the optics of the HUD are tweaked so that the pilot does not need to refocus eyes between the display and the background. I'm not sure if an inexpensive automobile HUD would have such fancy optics- it probably could do without them. After all, refocusing your eyes between windshield distance and infinity is much easier than refocusing from dashboard distance to infinity and changing your gaze from down in the car to up through the windshield.

I would not worry about reliability of the HUD, and Model 3 with a HUD should rate another 110% Consumer's Report score, which will break their scoring system once again.

 

[stef]

OMFG

The late 2017 launch is the bloody April. Fools Joke.

What time is it on Wall Street and in Dearbourn and Detroit and across Germany and in Osaka at 8:30 PM March 31st in California?

Oh well... Everything is possible with Elon's sense of humor!
OMG... My head starts spinning....

 

[Fallenone]

Judging from experience with airplanes, a HUD has the potential to be very reliable. A HUD is basically a projection system, where a digital image is somehow shown on a transparent surface. While the system takes some time to engineer just right, it should be easy to produce and should be as reliable as most digital displays. There's really no moving parts, it's just a fancy display.

In jetliners, the optics of the HUD are tweaked so that the pilot does not need to refocus eyes between the display and the background. I'm not sure if an inexpensive automobile HUD would have such fancy optics- it probably could do without them. After all, refocusing your eyes between windshield distance and infinity is much easier than refocusing from dashboard distance to infinity and changing your gaze from down in the car to up through the windshield.

I would not worry about reliability of the HUD, and Model 3 with a HUD should rate another 110% Consumer's Report score, which will break their scoring system once again.

Thanks for the explanation!

 

[BobSk]

Yep and you won't be able to get a base model when deliveries start. The fastest way to get a model3 is order a fully loaded one. This is no different than ordering MS or MX

To me the best approach is to order a model X, then get the fully loaded 3 quickly.

From what I understand of Elon, he's the type whose retaliation will totally annihilate you. However by the time it happens, you are already so insignificant that he can only remember he is doing this for humanity. but the subconscious still have the need to give a Big FU to someone.

Laugh at him at your own risk. I personally have heard rumours of something in 2 years close to production that'll annihilate every competitor who didn't immediately refocus the whole company into BEV.

If Elon twittes working on a truck, tomorrow all truck manufactures' sales will drop.

Now Musk says that the current steering wheel is not the real steering "system", so maybe there is no conventional wheel in the final car? I'm not sure what the alternative is, unless it involves a much higher degree of always-on autonomy.

The current display behind steering wheels on all cars doesn't make sense. There will be fancy display and controls in the center of the steering wheel, right in-front of the owners. Anyone can dream of this, that's the natural next step. The tricky part is to make it work and not interfere with airbags. Apparently Tesla solved it.

 

[RobStark]

Just one last thing about the tax credit: it's not in the constitution - it's just a political decision that can be changed or overturned easily, for any number of reasons. If Tesla were to set themselves up for a sub 200k delivery quarter followed by two massive quarters I believe the risk is pretty high that the federal government will change the conditions of the credit, saying that was never "in the spirit of the regulation" or some such thing.

It is a law not an agency regulation nor an executive order.

The law would need to be changed to change the stipulation.

If Tesla haters wanted to change the law there are 2 Senators from California and 2 from Nevada that would filibuster/stop the change.

Tesla should fully 110% game the system.

Haterz gonna hate.

Do your customers the favor. Loyalty begets loyalty.

 

[BriansTesla]

Prediction: Tesla will start delivering M3 to employees for beta testing by Q2 2017 at the latest.

 

[DrJohnM]

L

I'm not familiar with the HUD tech. Will it be difficult to produce or easy to have glitches, etc.? In other words, between HUD and traditional dashboard, which is easier to ensure mass production with lower defect product rate?

I guess I'm a little fancy-phobia now, after the fancy FWD

There are existing navigation systems already available. See for example HUDWAY, navdy, Garmin HUD

 

[lango]

Judging from experience with airplanes, a HUD has the potential to be very reliable. A HUD is basically a projection system, where a digital image is somehow shown on a transparent surface. While the system takes some time to engineer just right, it should be easy to produce and should be as reliable as most digital displays. There's really no moving parts, it's just a fancy display.

In jetliners, the optics of the HUD are tweaked so that the pilot does not need to refocus eyes between the display and the background. I'm not sure if an inexpensive automobile HUD would have such fancy optics- it probably could do without them. After all, refocusing your eyes between windshield distance and infinity is much easier than refocusing from dashboard distance to infinity and changing your gaze from down in the car to up through the windshield.

I would not worry about reliability of the HUD, and Model 3 with a HUD should rate another 110% Consumer's Report score, which will break their scoring system once again.

There is already quite a few cars with HUDs on the market, but I think almost all is as an extra option.

 

[dc_h]

Regarding credit: timing is likely to maximize credited deliveries. Congress can't change a law ex post facto. Even if legal, they're too slow--thank god for that!

Regarding early production: Wheeler may have revealed intent in Q4 earnings call. He said they would do a lot more test production and have process ready for production. My interpretation is that they will use the original production line for model 3. They will use line 1 for early beta and employees cars. Production tuning will be done before line 3 is completed. This could allow production to start by end of 2016 with minimal new capex.
For 2017 the China plant will come online. Electronics will be LG, batteries Panasonic from Japan, leaving body production and assembly from their local partner. No new financing needed and 3 is ramped up by end of 2017. If production is planned in Europe, that will be more expensive, but there are available sites at Nummi like prices. I thought the new line, for combined S and X production was 500mm. That would likely need to start in Q4 2016 in Fremont and the same in Europe, with costs absorbed by the China partner in Asia. The long pole for Europe is batteries. GF2 phase 1-2 would be needed to support mfg in Europe.
This is a long weekend post from my phone. I'm certainly wrong, but perhaps on the right track. Three plants from existing cash flow would position the for 1mm a year before 2019, meaning cash flow for the second million a year could be generated internally in 2020. Just my thoughts while waiting for Q1 deliveries.

 

[erha]

It's worth pointing out that the first Tweet was apparently in response to Musk's Tweet: "Token of appreciation for those who lined up coming via mail. Thought maybe 20-30 people per store would line up, not 800. Gifts on order."

So I think "scale model 3" means a small model of Model 3....

Really good catch! I didn't get that one

 

[Krugerrand]

He is quite chatty today.

It's important to him that people understand the Model 3. We know why.

 

[AudubonB]

ref. Erha #10557: I don't think the two glasses are identical - to me it seems the rear window necks down considerably; not so with the windshield (windscreen to you Atlantically-challenged).

 

[InTheShadows]

Now Musk says that the current steering wheel is not the real steering "system", so maybe there is no conventional wheel in the final car? I'm not sure what the alternative is, unless it involves a much higher degree of always-on autonomy.

He's going to replace it with a ps4 controller.

 

[InTheShadows]

I'm not familiar with the HUD tech. Will it be difficult to produce or easy to have glitches, etc.? In other words, between HUD and traditional dashboard, which is easier to ensure mass production with lower defect product rate?

I guess I'm a little fancy-phobia now, after the fancy FWD

We used to have a Bimmer with HUD. It was really nice. It had a small projector screen in the top of the dash that reflected off the inside of the windshield. It was easily visible in all lighting conditions and also had a dimmer control just like a normal dash. GPS directions were also displayed on it as well. It was one of the things we missed when we sold that car.

 

[Julian Cox]

I agree with Johan. I am not sure it is a good PR move to 'game the system' even if our 'friends'....the oil companies and ICE manufacturers have been beneficiaries of subsidies and bail outs in the past.

I also agree with Johan that gaming Model S and X order sequence is not the correct answer to the puzzle.

I think the only solution to a model 3 production ramp making large numbers of Model 3 owners receive the credit (without large numbers being relative to a very small number or the credit not being the full credit - neither of which are positions Elon needs to put himself in - or extending the credit which would be a function of a change in the credit system not a function of the Model 3 ramp) ..... Is the following:

Something that Elon has said does not add up when taken at face value. The thing about the Model 3 *ramp* (which is a really odd term to use repeatedly about something that is not supposed to be staring for over a year) is that the date of it has always been stated as by late 2017 and the last time Elon said this was on April Fools day practically everywhere except Hawthorne.

 

[Intl Professor]

Haven't thought about it, but surely applaud it.

 

[Fallenone]

Elon is holding a one-man press conference on twitter today... Info I gathered so far that are more related to investing in TSLA

1. AWD is a less than $5k option
2. Continuous expansion of SC network as mentioned before.

 

[Crowded Mind]

Elon is holding a one-man press conference on twitter today... Info I gathered so far that are more related to investing in TSLA

1. AWD is a $5k option, just like S/X.
2. Continuous expansion of SC network as mentioned before.

AWD will be less than $5k.