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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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AWD will be less than $5k.

tVQDwxD.png
Yes I had a brainfart, already edited my post.
 
Elon's Twitter feedfest today is must reading. Among the nuggets, after he indicated that the designers are still tweaking the look of the front, someone suggested to Elon that he look at designs posted at TMC. He then asked for a link. I sure hope Elon doesn't spend the rest of the night reading all this stuff on our forum that has been keeping me up the last several nights. What a black hole of time wasting!

That said, I do really like this design that a TMC poster created:

m3-front-jpg.170214
 
I'm not familiar with the HUD tech. Will it be difficult to produce or easy to have glitches, etc.? In other words, between HUD and traditional dashboard, which is easier to ensure mass production with lower defect product rate?

I guess I'm a little fancy-phobia now, after the fancy FWD ;)

I believe I read somewhere that fully half of Tesla's engineers were software types, and that was puzzling. This should be only a software issue as there are companies already making very good tiny projectors.
 
Anyone know for sure what effect the following has on the Federal Tax Credit?

@elonmusk AWESOME! Planning on delivering up to vehicle 199,999 and then waiting until the next 2 quarters to deliver the rest?

(to which Elon basically said yes if that's what it takes)

Looking at the Twitter feed Musk is specifically answering concerning the question of the $7500 tax credit level which to the best of my current knowledge is understood to apply only to the first 200,000 EVs per manufacturer sold in the USA. Anyone more familiar with this know if there some extra continuous production run clause with a some kind of reset button if the run is interrupted for a while? Thanks!
 
Elon's Twitter feedfest today is must reading. Among the nuggets, after he indicated that the designers are still tweaking the look of the front,

Indeed there is lots of extra info and insight on the Model 3.

Biggest items for me:
  • The final interior controls haven't been shown yet. "Spaceship" is how Elon describes what the experience will be like.
  • The reason there is a trunk rather than a hatch is that the upper lateral support beam had to be moved downwards to ensure extra rear headroom in the second row. (My comment: people who want a hatchback should wait for Model Y, the Model 3's crossover sibling)
  • European factory will become necessary as Fremont reaches full capacity in the coming years.
 
Anyone know for sure what effect the following has on the Federal Tax Credit?

@elonmusk AWESOME! Planning on delivering up to vehicle 199,999 and then waiting until the next 2 quarters to deliver the rest?

(to which Elon basically said yes if that's what it takes)

Looking at the Twitter feed Musk is specifically answering concerning the question of the $7500 tax credit level which to the best of my current knowledge is understood to apply only to the first 200,000 EVs per manufacturer sold in the USA. Anyone more familiar with this know if there some extra continuous production run clause with a some kind of reset button if the run is interrupted for a while? Thanks!

Here's a link to the IRS rules on EV credits and their phase-out

Here's the important text:
Section 2. BACKGROUND

Section 30D provides for a credit for certain new qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicles. The credit is equal to the sum of: (1) $2,500, plus (2) for a vehicle which draws propulsion energy from a battery with at least 5 kilowatt hours of capacity, $417, plus an additional $417 for each kilowatt hour of battery capacity in excess of 5 kilowatt hours. Under § 30D(b)(3), that portion of the credit determined by battery capacity cannot exceed $5,000. Therefore, the total amount of the credit allowed for a vehicle is limited to $7,500. The new qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (“phase-out period”). Qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are eligible for 50 percent of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and 25 percent of the credit if acquired in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period. Vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are not eligible for a credit if acquired after the phase-out period. After December 31, 2009, a vehicle that qualifies for a credit under § 30 does not qualify for the credit under § 30D.

The way I see it, Tesla can maximize the number of customers receiving the $7500 credit by delivering the 200,000th vehicle intended for use in the U.S. in the beginning of a quarter, and thus gaining 3 months of full credit versus delivering the 200,000th EV towards the end of the quarter. Tesla would not have to stop production of cars, however, they merely have to adjust the number of vehicles going to U.S. customers and deliver cars to non-U.S. customers as the end of the quarter approaches, in order to avoid crossing the 200,000 threshold at the end of a quarter. Once the clock starts, Tesla would then maximize U.S. deliveries as the clock ticked.
 
After thinking some more on the tax credit thing maybe it wouldn't hurt public perception after all, or at least minimally, to time the sale of the 200.000th car and make it occur at the beginning of a quarter rather than toward the end. That day will come regardless so why not time it fittingly? I don't think however they would hold off on their ramp, but then again they wouldn't have to since, as has been pointed out, they could just adjust the global region allocation mix a bit both in advance of the 200.000th US car sale and afterwards (prioritizing the US a bit).

All in all, Elon hinting to this should be a strong incentive for US future customers to get in line sooner rather than later!
 
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When I hear Elon talk about steering system being akin to a spaceship, I think only one thing:

joystick.

Look at the Dragon from SpaceX:

joystick.jpg


And when I think joystick, I think of those rare cases when the car's battery systems konk out while driving, and you have to push car to side of road. We all know what that is like with an ICE... you push the A pillar with one hand and steer the wheel with the other.

Try doing that with a joystick. Only, there's no joy.

So, while the joystick would be cool and spaceship-like, I sure hope it's an option. I want a mechanical wheel. Not ready for 100% drive by wire yet.
 
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O


The S and the X are already drive by wire. As are most other modern vehicles. I know our 2013 Golf is drive by wire too.

Sure, understood. I know that in the Boeing 777/787, the feel/resistance/looseness of the cockpit "sticks" is all simulated. I wasn't aware that steering systems had reached that level of simulation in cars. Maybe so. Never inquired about the internals of the Model S's steering wheel settings (I set it to "Sport" on day one and have never looked back).

But if Tesla goes joystick, and it's 100% pure digital interface on top of an electromechanical steering system, to me, that's the final straw of drive-by-wire.

(Yes this is all off-topic, but I blame Elon and his infernal Twitter feed. May it long continue.)
 
When I hear Elon talk about steering system being akin to a spaceship, I think only one thing:

joystick.

Look at the Dragon from SpaceX:

View attachment 170556

And when I think joystick, I think of those rare cases when the car's battery systems konk out while driving, and you have to push car to side of road. We all know what that is like with an ICE... you push the A pillar with one hand and steer the wheel with the other.

Try doing that with a joystick. Only, there's no joy.

So, while the joystick would be cool and spaceship-like, I sure hope it's an option. I want a mechanical wheel. Not ready for 100% drive by wire yet.

Tinm, I think you're onto it. Actually, I think the joystick might be a little more like the fly-by-wire side-stick controllers you see on modern jet fighters and Airbus airliners. The dashboard in Model 3 looked very much like something you'd see on an Airbus, once the steering wheel is replaced with a side stick. By moving the joystick to the left or right side, a nice workspace opens up in front of the pilot (er driver). With heads-up displays and a joystick, this vehicle is going to be a little intimidating for older drivers but younger car buyers are going to flock to it. I suggest keeping more conventional steering available on S and X for those who don't embrace the new method.

One advantage to this approach is that it will work really well as the car transitions to an autonomous driving vehicle. No major redesign of the dash would be necessary for comfortable, fully autonomous driving. Let's face it, if the car is driving itself, you don't want a big steering wheel in front of you.
 
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