Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[mmccord]

1) Model X tracker shows a lower delivery activity in 2016 than 2015. There are also fewer reports on the forums. I believe the sample size is enough to be significant.
2) When you look at the Model X sighting thread, most of the pictures we see are from Model X's waiting in service centers rather than being delivered. We also know that these cars are spending longer in the SeCs than usual because part of QC has been pushed from factory to the local prep guys. Again, not a great sign of actual deliveries.
3) There is comparatively little buzz on social media. There are little to no reviews. While the impact on demand is irrelevant, I believe with more buzz on model X demand we would've seen more interest in TSLA from casual investors and therefore upwards price pressure on the stock.

Agreed. There was definitely a surge of X deliveries before year end, but that seems to have slowed down significantly

 

[dreamingof3]

Can you imagine the buying pressure when shorts start buying to close their positions? Who really wants to take profits below 230 or 240? I just don't see many sellers once we start heading up.

That said, if you look at the trajectory of TSLA today, it is very closely following the DOW and NASDAQ. A blast-off of TSLA looks like it will depend upon a surge in the broader markets to get it started.

I'm extremely interested to see the new short interest number. This will tell us if some of the shorts viewed this as an exit opportunity or if they feel that long term the Tesla story will fail.
Personally I feel the Tesla haters feel the company will fail long term. I look for the short interest to INCREASE as they have been part of the fuel behind the recent dramatic decline

 

[electracity]

It may or may not, but projections are a moving target. When and if we get to that 500K cars or as we progress, projections and targets will be projected out even more... So as GF1 progresses and Model 3 reveal occurs. As Tesla continues to develop product that generates cash, this will bring us to the next level. I don't think there will be major equity dilution only because there's going to be a period of time where internally generated cash will be put into the factory. In addition, the buildout is occurring in phases while the factory is operational so it will be paying for itself over time.

Also, I've been keeping track of CES and NAIAS and the reveals/concepts just showed iterations of vehicles and entry and focus in a different segment of the auto market. The tech that was revealed was concept in nature and iterative of the current systems today. There was nothing that stuck out to me that would leapfrog Tesla. Yes there was the Bolt but that was the only "serious" EV entrant that seems like it would come to fruition soonest. Tesla's game, as per usual, will remain based on execution.

Musk is going to need to explain the gigafactory if he wants to remove a major drag on share price. What Tesla has is a large building where Panasonic is installing battery lines. There is no magic here to produce vast numbers of batteries at lowest price for Powerwall and Model 3.

Considering Musk's poor management of manufacturing at SpaceX, there is no reason to assume that the gigafactory is a solid plan. What looks good to a software guy on paper does not necessarily translate to the real world of making physical things.

 

[dreamingof3]

Musk is going to need to explain the gigafactory if he wants to remove a major drag on share price. What Tesla has is a large building where Panasonic is installing battery lines. There is no magic here to produce vast numbers of batteries at lowest price for Powerwall and Model 3.

Considering Musk's poor management of manufacturing at SpaceX, there is no reason to assume that the gigafactory is a solid plan. What looks good to a software guy on paper does not necessarily translate to the real world of making physical things.

Completely disagree. At least shorts are now admitting a gigafactory is now opening and SOON.

 

[AudubonB]

Actually the opposite. If you pull up IWM (index that TSLA seems to be following hte most) you will see it is doing the exact same thing just a bit more exaggerated (higher beta)...the reason is because there is probably a lack of market makers involved in TSLA so the price is less stable in ups and downs of the market (or IWM)...but because it is almost tracking it exactly today (just exaggerated) I would argue that there are no big buyers or big sellers in TSLA today at all and that it is just caught up in the tail winds of the general market (IWM in TSLA's case) but with a higher degree of exaggeration (Beta).

If it was a higher degree of exaggeration much more favorable in one direction with IWM then the other then one could argue that perhaps there is a big institution that put on a VWAP order to accumulate shares (or sell shares) but because today it is exaggerated to almost the same degree both ways (when the market fell and when it just came back) I would just say there is a lack of 'real trading' going on in TSLA and it is just following the market as best it can without many market makers involved in TSLA to help stabilize it

You seem to have looked at this more carefully than I did, but given the relative paucity of large blocks of shares, that someone was able to put back-to-back blocks like that made me think a MM was an enabler.

Or maybe the Powerball winner had backed the dump truck to the loading dock.....

 

[hockeythug]

Considering Musk's poor management of manufacturing at SpaceX, there is no reason to assume that the gigafactory is a solid plan. What looks good to a software guy on paper does not necessarily translate to the real world of making physical things.

One loss of vehicle means "poor management of manufacturing"?

 

[aznt1217]

Musk is going to need to explain the gigafactory if he wants to remove a major drag on share price. What Tesla has is a large building where Panasonic is installing battery lines. There is no magic here to produce vast numbers of batteries at lowest price for Powerwall and Model 3.

Considering Musk's poor management of manufacturing at SpaceX, there is no reason to assume that the gigafactory is a solid plan. What looks good to a software guy on paper does not necessarily translate to the real world of making physical things.

I'm sorry what? Poor management of manufacturing at SpaceX? Please explain and tell us how this trickles down to Tesla? I know people who work at SpaceX and manufacturing seems just fine especially when compared to government contractors. Yes, this is anecdotal evidence at best but please let me know where you see otherwise. I'd like to educate myself.

How is there no reason to assume the Gigafactory has a solid plan? Things have been explained in the prospectus. What would you need to hear-- the nitty gritty? I don' think we'd want to hear that because that's pretty much the secret sauce and competitive advantage. Please realize that manufacturing isn't even directly under Elon's supervision, he oversees it but isn't in the day to day. Tesla has a very strong bench filled with people much smarter than you and I in their specific fields.

It's not just battery lines, it's an industrial park so there's more than just Panasonic. They are taking LEAN six sigma and other manufacturing practices to the next level by laying on vertical integration to the point where it becomes value added and not burdensome. I don't see why that's bad at this point if they are building out in phases and not going full tilt. I agree there's no magic to produce cheap batteries. The magic lies in producing it efficiently and in a sustainable manner. If there's no magic involved and it's as easy as you are painting it, then your logic dictates that Toyota and the other big manufacturing companies are intentionally holding back or think that BEV's are not viable as a business plan. This is an entirely different matter and the same argument used since Tesla's inception. I'm saying this at the risk of sounding like a fat cheerleader, but by no means to I feel that the company is totally 100% perfect but your argument is laid out the other way where Tesla is worth nothing.

 

[dreamingof3]

Oil up

Market up

Tesla unchanged

I can't figure this stock out to save my life

Do people trading this need medication?

 

[Yggdrasill]

Musk is going to need to explain the gigafactory if he wants to remove a major drag on share price. What Tesla has is a large building where Panasonic is installing battery lines. There is no magic here to produce vast numbers of batteries at lowest price for Powerwall and Model 3.

You're right there's no magic. All Tesla and Panasonic has to do is make the investments, and then reap the rewards. There's not much risk at all, it's just a matter doing it.

 

[Causalien]

Until I get back home and figure out how to delete messages and clear my inbox, I have to post my reply here. Sorry for the rest of ya. Who is not involved. But please use the comment function on my blog if you would like to ask questions about any post.

It indicates an options skew going on where put premium is a lot higher. This has the effect of causing a feedback loop where shorting is 100% profitable which causes more shares to be shorted. You should read those few pages around post #100 on advanced option strategy. Everything has already been explained there.

The biggest downside of pulling the same strategy as the infinite shorters is that at one point, yhere will be no shares that you can borrow to buy back.

 

[Gerardf]

This was an interesting post, just a few days ago.. :


Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016 - Page 79

As Vlad wrote :

It seems that there are serious shenanigans going to be involved this week. There is crazy high open interest for this week for both $200 calls and $200 puts: 4,125 and 15,140 respectively. For comparison the next week calls/puts at $200 have open interest of 4/186. Given freak out macro, it looks like it will not cost that much capital for option writers to herd TSLA toward $200 this week. It might be that the spring will have mighty re-bound after end of this week.

 

[Zaxxon]

Whelp, I added another 10 shares to my meager position @ $201 this morning. Good luck, all.

 

[Papafox]

Vlad's thesis of why there's pressure to close at 200 on Friday is showing some support by price action. Although TSLA followed the broader markets most of the morning, TSLA decoupled from following the broader markets and has lately been trading around $200. Hmm.

Edit: Whomever benefits from $200 TSLA only has so much ability to influence price. If NASDAQ moves significantly up or down, TSLA will start to follow again.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Completely disagree. At least shorts are now admitting a gigafactory is now opening and SOON.

Giga factory opening soon also means model 3 will be in production earlier. I know it's tesla but they have more resources now than any prior time to devote to model 3. Just as no sense for giga to be late no sense to have giga ready early to production of model 3. Musk had already said earlier no new surprise features like falcon doors so no new engineering challenges either

 

[dreamingof3]

Giga factory opening soon also means model 3 will be in production earlier. I know it's tesla but they have more resources now than any prior time to devote to model 3. Just as no sense for giga to be late no sense to have giga ready early to production of model 3. Musk had already said earlier no new surprise features like falcon doors so no new engineering challenges either

They already said they are assembling large power system batteries at GIGA during 4q of 2015

 

[Julian Cox]

My wife won't let me buy more :scared:

Meh. That's only because she wants the rest of your joint account to buy herself.

The anti-Petersen pounds table: Buy Buy Buy! You want a $300-$400 asset for $200 the store is open for business. Stock trading never gets to look any better than this. What are you waiting for fill your boots.

 

[FredTMC]

Agreed. There was definitely a surge of X deliveries before year end, but that seems to have slowed down significantly

My view on this is very simple (if MX production has slowed). Tesla has a very "high quality" production challenge right now (called "order backlogs").

They HAVE to produce Model S NOW for Europe and Asia and get those orders on the boat soon for Q1 deliveries. Fortunately this gives Tesla some time to work on any production rate ramp issues with MX.

Again don't assume that slow MX production right now is necessarily a bad thing. World delivery scheduling is a big part of Tesla's production scheduling

 

[doctoxics]

Giga factory opening soon also means model 3 will be in production earlier.

Could we actually see Model 3 production start before Q4 of 2017? With the Gigafactory ahead of schedule and a clear deck after the X ramp, why not? Elon keeps repeating late 2017 for initial production, so we know that timeline appears doable. In order for Tesla to have a time margin for uncertainties, we will likely not know of an earlier production launch, should there be one, until we are almost there.

 

[Spidy]

"Living in Germany" you have this national notion that German cars are superior to everything else. I would really like to understand how a BMW is different from a KIA. When you answer "German Engineering", which means little, I ask to understand how BMW is different than VW. Bigger engine? More pollution? More fires? More advertising? More expensive to repair? Maybe it's that VW cheats more.

Some people in Detroit think GM is better. So?

The only car that is truly different, is different in the radically new drive train. Yes, it's more than the engine. Anyone can put in more cupholders. Maybe you mean leather seats. How about reliability or safety? Only recently have BMW and Porsche become really good driving cars, but a lot of that, too, is advertising, and my Model S beats them in driving, unless you mean going 155 mph on the Autobahn, which seems to be going out of style with most of the German population.

Since a large part of Germany's economy is German cars, it behooves you to believe that those cars are better. That's your opinion, and I don't agree.

And I live in California, and I don't have an HOV sticker.

Really? You don't understand how BMW is different from a KIA?

So how do you explain that hundred of thousand of people (not just in Germany) pay more for a BMW?

 

[dc_h]

Initial GF will be focused on Tesla Energy. Until cell production starts in 2017, GF is an energy solution. Powerwall gets all the press, but the market for utility scale systems should soak up capacity for 2016. The interesting issue is if that will generate enough cash flow to fund stage 2 construction and work for cell production. With Bolt\LG stepping up, increasing energy density will be a key attribute for Tesla. I don't see this moving the needle short term, unless Tesla announces aggressive GF production in the earnings call. If they target over 1bn in shipments from the GF in 2016, I think that would be bullish.

Giga factory opening soon also means model 3 will be in production earlier. I know it's tesla but they have more resources now than any prior time to devote to model 3. Just as no sense for giga to be late no sense to have giga ready early to production of model 3. Musk had already said earlier no new surprise features like falcon doors so no new engineering challenges either