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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Oil up

Market up

Tesla unchanged

I can't figure this stock out to save my life

Do people trading this need medication?


"This imaginary person out there -- Mr. Market -- he's kind of a drunken psycho. Some days he gets very enthused, some days he gets very depressed. And when he get really enthused, you sell to him and if he gets depressed you buy from him," Buffett added.


Read more: http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-rat...-is-a-drunken-psycho-is-it-now-#ixzz3xEvjcMOd
 
Brief (very brief, promise) big picture interlude.

F stock down, GM stock down, TM stock down, VW stock down, Boeing stock down, OIL down.

What do all these have in common? Answer: These are a sample of Tesla's competitors and yet in ordinary market parlance these things represent 'the economy'.

If you wind out the lens even further the scope of the global economic trends that Musk has jumped on include:

Automotive
Aerospace
Mass transport
City mobiliy
Energy production
Energy management (storage)
Telecoms (yes - this one is non obvious but SpaceX global broadband launched for free on second use rockets will wipe out the global IP/Telecomms carrier industry too).

At some point the industries challenged by the trends that Musk is pursuing will essentially collapse practically the entire basis of the 20th century economy. Of course its replacement will be stronger and not weaker but that is besides the point. The experts will cry doom because 'the economy' as they view it will indeed suffer. This is no time for 'experts'. This is a time for visionaries. That is where all the money is at if you fancy backing winners rather than clinging to losers.

Think about it. There is nobody alive that remembers how Ford, GM, Toyota or Exxon (or Koch Industries) came into existence. These business are not features of the landscape that were there before the dawn of man as the bears would have you believe - Koch's gasoline refineries by the way were an extremely disruptive business in their day and Koch grappled with all manner of corrupt protectionism from incumbents. Yet these businesses, all of them, exploded into existence in exactly the same way that Tesla is exploding into existence right now and their fat legacy competitors in steam and horse drawn transportation were mown down like so much overgrown grass in the space of a decade or two.
 
I am liquidating many of my other stocks today to get into TSLA. The upside, IMHO before the end of this month, is going to be enormous.

Could we actually see Model 3 production start before Q4 of 2017?

Think it through... if the first Model 3 Founder's Edition delivery is on December 31st 2017, they will probably be "producing" Model 3 cars on the line 3 months prior to that. So if you're asking if they will be stamping panels and putting Model 3 parts together during Q3 the answer is probably yes, but only for test and other finalisation reasons. Q4 is when they will produce the first cars to be delivered to customers.

This thread has been on fire lately! With all the long-term strategic discussion stuff mixed in with the legit short-term scrutiny, and all the posts from obvious bears and obvious bulls (myself being in the latter), it has been a very interesting.
 
If you wind out the lens even further the scope of the global economic trends that Musk has jumped on include:
Telecoms (yes - this one is non obvious but SpaceX global broadband launched for free on second use rockets will wipe out the global IP/Telecomms carrier industry too).

Satellites for broadband are notoriously slow. Latency is a serious issue. I wouldn't expect much from this.
 
Yep. Very interesting thread. I'm okay with long term thoughts in this thread for now due to macro volatility

This thread is a "one stop shop" right now of everything that's going on With TSLA
Fred what type of range do you get with your 60? I was very close to pulling the trigger on a 2013 60 with pano roof, 21 wheels, loaded up, 14k miles -49k on Tesla CPO. Of course it sold before I could line up financing.
 
Anecdotal evidence indicator: a good friend of mine called me today on the phone. We meet about once a month, both have small children and busy jobs. He has reservation #2 EU for Model X, got it on opening day after following my enthusiasm and taking delivery of S (he drives a LEAF). Anyway, also from my inspiration he owns TSLA. Got in around $100-120 IIRC. He's a good friend but we rarely take the time to just call each other to shoot the breeze. Yet today he did, but after a few minutes it was clear he wanted my view on TSLA. He was obviously considering selling his holdings and try to catch the falling knife ("get back in a little lower") or maybe he was likely just scared and had a knee jerk notion to just sell (I think even at $200 he's up >100% considering forex as well). I got him to reconsider using common sense: the market is being schizophrenic and much of the macro drop has to do with the cascading effects from it becoming painfully obvious how much stranded assets there will soon be in the fossil businesses. This drags TSLA down but for no good reason longer term, in fact on the contrary who will emerge as a big winner and likely go-to stock when this mini crash blows over? That's right TSLA, solar stocks etc. If he (and me, and you) didn't sell at $240 a couple of weeks ago why on earth would you sell at $200 today?

Anyway, a personal piece of anecdotal evidence that suggests to me that the sheep are running scared.

Addition: thx AlMc for mentioning my prediction that turned out true but as you said, for all the wrong reasons (I thought the Norway SC fire would have a lot of short term impact).
 
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Anecdotal evidence indicator: a good friend of mine called me today on the phone. We meet about once a month, both have small children and busy jobs. He has reservation #2 EU for Model X, got it on opening day after following my enthusiasm and taking delivery of S (he drives a LEAF). Anyway, also from my inspiration he owns TSLA. Got in around $100-120 IIRC. He's a good friend but we rarely take the time to just call each other to shoot the breeze. Yet today he did, but after a few minutes it was clear he wanted my view on TSLA. He was obviously considering selling his holdings and try to catch the falling knife ("get back in a little lower") or maybe he was likely just scared and had a knee jerk notion to just sell (I think even at $200 he's up >100% considering forex as well). I got him to reconsider using common sense: the market is being schizophrenic and much of the macro drop has to do with the cascading effects from it becoming painfully obvious how much stranded assets there will soon be in the fossil businesses. This drags TSLA down but for no good reason longer term, in fact on the contrary who will emerge as a big winner and likely go-to stock when this mini crash blows over? That's right TSLA, solar stocks etc. If he (and me, and you) didn't sell at $240 a couple of weeks ago why on earth would you sell at $200 today?

Anyway, a personal piece of anecdotal evidence that suggests to me that the sheep are running scared.

Addition: thx AlMc for mentioning my prediction that turned out true but as you said, for all the wrong reasons (I thought the Norway SC fire would have a lot of short term impact).
IMO this is a major factor at play here- the psychology of "If I don't take my profit now there may not be a profit to take"

Look forward people...we were at 290 in 2013 now we are at 200 in 2016 with a major slew of developments. Not sure what the market is thinking here
 
Fred what type of range do you get with your 60? I was very close to pulling the trigger on a 2013 60 with pano roof, 21 wheels, loaded up, 14k miles -49k on Tesla CPO. Of course it sold before I could line up financing.

168mi at daily charge (90%). I haven't done a full (range) charge in a while. Probably 182mi. Was over 200mi when new

this battery will last a long long time with usable range. Once their are lots of Model S's on the road with 150k mi, the stock price will go higher as a result.

- - - Updated - - -

CRS-2 contract announcement. It's between SpaceX, Orbital, and Sierra Nevada.

wow. Thx guys. No way Spacex should lose this competition. They should certainly be the majority winner. Lowest cost...
 
Satellites for broadband are notoriously slow. Latency is a serious issue. I wouldn't expect much from this.
The broadband you are thinking of is offered by satellites in Geostationary orbit, ~35,000 km away (aka horrible latency). Elon's plan is to use Low Earth Orbit satellites (LEO satellites are ~1,000 km away, much better for latency).

More info here rather than take things off topic:
Satellite Internet access - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
Meh. That's only because she wants the rest of your joint account to buy herself.

The anti-Petersen pounds table: Buy Buy Buy! You want a $300-$400 asset for $200 the store is open for business. Stock trading never gets to look any better than this. What are you waiting for fill your boots.
I did just that! Started in 2012, over 2500 shares at present./
 
Julian Cox and others,
Thank you for the extensive discussion about the prospects for TSLA in 2016. I'm sure you saved lots of forum members from bailing at what may well be the bottom of the dip. Macro forces prevail at present and anything can still happen, but at least today we're seeing what a turnaround looks like.

I believe the discussion was appropriate for this thread because it so much affected people's decisions on how to trade during this short-term crisis.
 
In ten weeks time Tesla is going to unveil a vehicle that will turn the auto market on its head coinciding with firm guidance of a FCF positive quarter and very likely a non-GAAP profit quarter too. This is because MX, MS and Tesla Energy are now selling in parallel which is a 180 degree about turn from MS cross-subsidizing the development and staffing-up of the other two profit centers. This will become generally obvious in my opinion within 6-8 weeks. This destroys everything that supports 27 million shares sold short.

There has not been such a perfect setup for a short squeeze since 2013. Justthateasy I am very sad to read your comment. Great decisions are never made out of fear or depression, it is not my business to tell you what to do but please think on that for your sake, darkest hour before dawn etc. Musk is a $billionare because he does things that make sense even if going against received wisdom is as scary as all hell. I am not crazy, I have said in recent days I expected the stock to slide further than $205 i.e. a better buying opportunity and that happened too. If anyone requires a comfort blanket: Look no further Fidelity. These guys are tight with Musk through investments in both SpaceX and Tesla. They are buying while others are selling. That's the house right there, betting against the house is not a good idea.

Mostly agree with you, but if they don't ramp up X in the quarter to a decent number, wouldn't you say FCF positive in Q1 is unlikely?
 
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