Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[stealthology]

Chinese New Year still one week away. The biggest concern is model X is a failed product which never able to get volume production in reliable way. But with more and more production X invited for config. It could be turn out just non fatal issues.

The Model X will not have a demand problem anytime soon; that I am certain of. You don't want to get too crazy with expectations, but the Model X was basically built for China. There were only 5,000 S deliveries to China last year. The potential there is huge. They have recently learned how to be consumers, and they're really liking cars.

 

[Julian Cox]

Note.

Exponential. A definition: Counter-intuitively slow in the beginning gaining pace counter-intuitively fast in a mathematically predictable fashion.

Exponential. Hyperbole: Crazy, off the charts.

Model X ramp is the former, registered interest in Tesla Energy products was reported to be the latter.

These concepts are not interchangeable.

 

[hobbes]

Can someone please explain what this means to me?

On the one hand, cars from other manufactuers using supercharger spots. On the other hand, possibly more companies participating in building (super)chargers.

Actually, this obviously has to do with EU legislation from a few years ago which is about to become a law in Germany, requiring everyone setting up public fast chargers to also have the CCS (Combined Charging System - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia) plugs for interoperability. A lot depends on the details, like if there will be others paying for more charging spots and if anyone even with a slow charging rate can charge there. Some discussion on the German law here: German bill requires CCS and L2 plugs at every new fast charge point.

 

[Yggdrasill]

On the one hand, cars from other manufactuers using supercharger spots. On the other hand, possibly more companies participating in building (super)chargers.

Actually, this obviously has to do with EU legislation from a few years ago which is about to become a law in Germany, requiring everyone setting up public fast chargers to also have the CCS (Combined Charging System - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia) plugs for interoperability. A lot depends on the details, like if there will be others paying for more charging spots and if anyone even with a slow charging rate can charge there. Some discussion on the German law here: German bill requires CCS and L2 plugs at every new fast charge point.

I believe he was more curious about the specific implementation. Looking at the video, I get the impression Musk is talking about adding CCS rapid chargers at some/most supercharger stations in Europe. And for the supercharger stations without CCS, cars from other car makers will require a Tesla -> CCS adapter.

 

[Lesifass]

I believe he was more curious about the specific implementation. Looking at the video, I get the impression Musk is talking about adding CCS rapid chargers at some/most supercharger stations in Europe. And for the supercharger stations without CCS, cars from other car makers will require a Tesla -> CCS adapter.

Additional CCS chargers at every German supercharger location won't be enough. The law requires a CCS plug at every "fast charge point", so if a parking spot has a supercharger pedestal next to it, a CCS plug is mandatory. (i.e. superchargers with e.g. 8 Tesla charging spots need a new CCS plug for every single supercharger pedestal. You can't have a single parking spot without CCS if you can charge any EV at that spot with more than 22kW.)

It is also mandatory that every EV is allowed to charge at every "fast charge point", so it's impossible to have Tesla-only stalls. I don't think the cost is regulated though, so using the CCS plug could probably be 100€/min. (Or maybe the cost needs to be the same for all cars? Not sure.)

 

[ggies07]

So since there won't be that many details for the Model 3 reveal, does that mean reservations will get pushed back or no? What do you guys think?

 

[Yggdrasill]

So since there won't be that many details for the Model 3 reveal, does that mean reservations will get pushed back or no? What do you guys think?

If Tesla doesn't display a working prototype and start taking reservations, I would be extremely disappointed.

But I think they will do so, they just won't go into too much detail. I wouldn't expect to see the next gen autopilot features being presented, for instance.

 

[Lessmog]

If Tesla doesn't display a working prototype and start taking reservations, I would be extremely disappointed.

But I think they will do so, they just won't go into too much detail. I wouldn't expect to see the next gen autopilot features being presented, for instance.

Wasn't it only last summer that Elon stated they would not give out all the details of Model X before the actual launch? I expect similar for Model 3.

 

[AudubonB]

Note.

Exponential. A definition: Counter-intuitively slow in the beginning gaining pace counter-intuitively fast in a mathematically predictable fashion.

Exponential. Hyperbole: Crazy, off the charts.

Model X ramp is the former, registered interest in Tesla Energy products was reported to be the latter.

These concepts are not interchangeable.

I would hope - and, in fact, have understandably assumed - that someone as grounded in mathematics and engineering as Mr Musk is would accurately, correctly and scientifically* use words like "exponential". There are many examples of posts that beseech us to take Mr Musk at his word. Well, that's a word he's used.


*I know, I misused "scientifically". That's because there's no such word as "engineeringly".

 

[Yggdrasill]

Wasn't it only last summer that Elon stated they would not give out all the details of Model X before the actual launch? I expect similar for Model 3.

Similar to the Model X reveal would be fine. After the reveal in 2012, we knew most of the essential information about the Model X. Some things became known before the deliveries, like tow hitch, auto pilot and ludicrous, and some things were revealed at the delivery event, like the big windscreen and bioweapon defence mode. I will be more than happy if I have the following information about the Model 3 after the reveal in March:

- The approximate size and shape of the car, as well as door configuration
- Number of seats, approximate cargo capacity
- The approximate range and whether there will be different battery options
- The planned drivetrain configurations, AWD/FWD/RWD
- The approximate performance with the different drivetrains
- Starting price (hopefully still 35k USD) and some idea of where a high spec car will end up
- Thoughts on supercharging, free-for-life?
- Reservation price, signatures/production

The rest of the information can come later.

 

[lango]

Similar to the Model X reveal would be fine. After the reveal in 2012, we knew most of the essential information about the Model X. Some things became known before the deliveries, like tow hitch, auto pilot and ludicrous, and some things were revealed at the delivery event, like the big windscreen and bioweapon defence mode. I will be more than happy if I have the following information about the Model 3 after the reveal in March:

- The approximate size and shape of the car, as well as door configuration
- Number of seats, approximate cargo capacity
- The approximate range and whether there will be different battery options
- The planned drivetrain configurations, AWD/FWD/RWD
- The approximate performance with the different drivetrains
- Starting price (hopefully still 35k USD) and some idea of where a high spec car will end up
- Thoughts on supercharging, free-for-life?
- Reservation price, signatures/production

The rest of the information can come later.

They need to show it of course. Not just a sketch or render. I don't think all the performance numbers needs to be revealed, just ballparks.

 

[Renaud]

A failed product which will never be able to get volume production in a reliable way? Really? I do agree with your assessment of the slow ramp up of production and the problems associated with that but a failed product, completely? What is your basis for saying that?

The way I read Maoing post is that the biggest concern, the biggest risk is a possibility of Model X potentially becoming a failed product that never achieves production in a reliable way. He does not claim it's a failed product yet, but he does not rule out the risk of X becoming a failed product. And that's why I suppose people sold short close to 30 million shares...

 

[AlMc]

They need to show it of course. Not just a sketch or render. I don't think all the performance numbers needs to be revealed, just ballparks.

Yes. Agree that they need to show an actual prototype and since we will be close to two years away from production there are bound to be changes in the design as EM likes to make sure the actual product is better than the prototype. (We can debate that with the X:wink Hopefully that 'better' does not result in some of the engineering *excesses* that we saw in the X. I doubt it will.

EX: They show a protype with side view mirrors and 'normal' doors but at reveal there are no mirrors and you have the option of 'falcons' (if they become perfected/reliable) or standard doors. ALSo, they will show only one prototype but on reveal may have a sedan and a small CUV.

 

[Johan]

The way I read Maoing post is that the biggest concern, the biggest risk is a possibility of Model X potentially becoming a failed product that never achieves production in a reliable way. He does not claim it's a failed product yet, but he does not rule out the risk of X becoming a failed product. And that's why I suppose people sold short close to 30 million shares...

TSLA has been severely sold short for years...

That said, I wasn't accusing maoing himself of claiming there's a high probability of the X being/becoming a failed product. What I was after is that if this is one of the biggest concerns right now, what are we basing it on? A slow ramp up (which in itself isn't much correlated with if the product succeeds), quality issues, bad reviews, dissatisfied owners? If the concerns are found to rest on very shaky grounds then we can dismiss them more easily. If the concerns are well funded we should take heed.

 

[McMuggets]

Yes. Agree that they need to show an actual prototype and since we will be close to two years away from production there are bound to be changes in the design as EM likes to make sure the actual product is better than the prototype. (We can debate that with the X:wink Hopefully that 'better' does not result in some of the engineering *excesses* that we saw in the X. I doubt it will.

EX: They show a protype with side view mirrors and 'normal' doors but at reveal there are no mirrors and you have the option of 'falcons' (if they become perfected/reliable) or standard doors. ALSo, they will show only one prototype but on reveal may have a sedan and a small CUV.

I would be surprised and disappointed if they did not literally drive a Model 3 onto the stage. You cannot state "reservations are open" when you don't show people the car. Keep in mind the engineering power (both in experience and numbers) of Tesla is far better than when they were developing the Model X. They got a Model X onto the stage in 2012 with people riding inside of it, and the prototype falcon wings worked well too. Sure it took 4 more years to actually produce the X. My prediction is that the Model 3 will be shockingly on time for both the reveal and production, since Tesla has far stronger engineering, manufacturing, development, software, supply chain, drive motors, and battery supply/technology than it did for the S and X. If the Model 3 is based on the overall shape and engineering of the Model S with no bells and whistles, then it will be a runaway success. For the Model 3 reveal, it would be very disappointing if there was only a render or a non-drivable shell.

On a side note... let's change up the discussion a bit. We've forgotten to put some focus on Tesla Energy. There have been photos of many Tesla Energy crates from all around the world. Word is the Gigafactory is ahead of schedule and producing product for both Tesla Motors as well as Energy customers (mainly on the utility level). Even here in Alberta Canada, one of our largest utilities (oddly enough partnered with Buffett and co, of NV Energy anti-solar panel fame) has Tesla Energy battery project(s). How much do you people will this affect the upcoming earnings as well as the forward guidance? What is the profit margin on these battery products?

 

[Krugerrand]

If Tesla doesn't display a working prototype and start taking reservations, I would be extremely disappointed.

But I think they will do so, they just won't go into too much detail. I wouldn't expect to see the next gen autopilot features being presented, for instance.

Oh my goodness, such handwringing over an expected comment. It's as if people have a hard time learning. (Not specifically you Yggdrasill) Tesla will hold back announcing some of the Model 3 features. That's no surprise. It's what they did with the S and the X. They want their customers to be delighted and surprised. They also are likely working on features they aren't yet sure will make the first/second iteration of the Model 3 and God forbid they announce a feature that doesn't make it into the first cars off the line, because we know that doesn't get people all bent. :wink: Besides, it's not like any other OEM lists off all the features in their prototype cars when they show them off. Geesh!

Why don't we all just relax, have a beer, eat some chicken wings and wait? Too much to ask, I know.

 

[electracity]

I would be surprised and disappointed if they did not literally drive a Model 3 onto the stage. You cannot state "reservations are open" when you don't show people the car. Keep in mind the engineering power (both in experience and numbers) of Tesla is far better than when they were developing the Model X. They got a Model X onto the stage in 2012 with people riding inside of it, and the prototype falcon wings worked well too. Sure it took 4 more years to actually produce the X. My prediction is that the Model 3 will be shockingly on time for both the reveal and production, since Tesla has far stronger engineering, manufacturing, development, software, supply chain, drive motors, and battery supply/technology than it did for the S and X. If the Model 3 is based on the overall shape and engineering of the Model S with no bells and whistles, then it will be a runaway success. For the Model 3 reveal, it would be very disappointing if there was only a render or a non-drivable shell.

On a side note... let's change up the discussion a bit. We've forgotten to put some focus on Tesla Energy. There have been photos of many Tesla Energy crates from all around the world. Word is the Gigafactory is ahead of schedule and producing product for both Tesla Motors as well as Energy customers (mainly on the utility level). Even here in Alberta Canada, one of our largest utilities (oddly enough partnered with Buffett and co, of NV Energy anti-solar panel fame) has Tesla Energy battery project(s). How much do you people will this affect the upcoming earnings as well as the forward guidance? What is the profit margin on these battery products?

Tesla is a revolving door of engineering talent. Seventy of the 400 or so Faraday employees list previous employment in a Tesla engineering role. Perhaps do they have better talent to do the M3 compared to the Mx. Perhaps they have less talent. My guess is that the actual situation is a mixed bag.

 

[Krugerrand]

*I know, I misused "scientifically". That's because there's no such word as "engineeringly".

Nah, uh. If you use it in a sentence, it's a word. Everybody knows that.

- - - Updated - - -

You cannot state "reservations are open" when you don't show people the car.

Yes you can, and you can also watch the reservation total climb like crazy. Will Tesla do that? I've not a clue, but neither would it surprise me.

 

[lango]

Yes you can, and you can also watch the reservation total climb like crazy. Will Tesla do that? I've not a clue, but neither would it surprise me.

The only reason to do that (take reservations before showing the car) is that you very much need the cash from reservations and the car is not ready.
So this would be a big mistake and IMO is extremely unlikely.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

A failed product which will never be able to get volume production in a reliable way? Really? I do agree with your assessment of the slow ramp up of production and the problems associated with that but a failed product, completely? What is your basis for saying that?

He's saying that was potential risk he saw, and it doesn't appear to be real