Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[MikeC]

Posters here have claimed earlier that Tesla doesn't go to auto shows, as it spends $0 on marketing & advertising, and has a long backlog. To quote Elon, "the car sells itself". Attending two shows within 1-2 months should mean something then.

Tesla goes to auto shows, I don't recall anyone claiming it doesn't. The Model S was at several. It would be weird if they weren't showing off their newly-launched product. Saying the car is selling itself, at a point in the past when they were trying to suppress demand, does not mean they would never promote their product once it launched. If they weren't going to auto shows, bears would be using that as FUD.

 

[mmd]

Except that elon affirmatively stated on the conference call that they were trying to suppress model x demand until production ramps up. Really, they need to stimulate demand for a car with a gigantic backlog of orders? Sometimes it's easier to just go with the simpler answer.

Do you have a link to such statement? We need to parse that carefully, if he really meant what you read. BTW, Elon and Tesla has said many things (2nd row fold flat seat for Model X, 691 hp for model S, second row seats cause of X delay, etc. etc.) which were later found untrue. For example, when he says "exponential Model X ramp", he doesn't mean exponential by any acceptable definition.

Secondly, it may be a gigantic backlog of reservations, but they are not "orders" yet. In CNBC videos, Lebeau said very clearly that the test drives were to convert those to firm orders.

 

[Fast Laner]

The first picture in an german newspaper of the MX at the Geneva Motor Show!

Bilderstrecke zu: Automobile Almträume auf dem Genfer Automobilsalon - Bild 15 von 16 - FAZ

 

[ggr]

Ive never loaned out shares, however, I don't see how a brokerage is taking on risk if I loan out shares that I own. If shares are owned on margin that is obviously different but I don't know that you can loan shares that are on margin? I should look into it, I'll gladly loan out shares to the shorties, may hurt company/share price short term but will pay off in the end when they get burned.

My understanding is that if you have a margin account, you have automatically agreed to loan out your shares, and the brokerage pockets the profits.But I guess that might be just my brokerage, not a general rule.

 

[Yonki]

I am not sure I understand it correctly, but is it that the Brokerage house pockets the interests charged by broker to loan out the shares for others to short? I remember a long time ago I called my brokerage house and they specifically said so.

How does Fidelity pay you in the form of 3%? Is it annual rate?

It's an annual rate, paid out monthly.

I'm sure they take a cut since they are takingnrisk on as well. But you the shareholder should absolutely get a nonzero dollar amount for giving up your shares for the time being. Because while they are locked by the short, you can't sell them. So if **** really did hit the fan then you couldn't get your shares back... Right?

I can exit anytime I want - in fact I sold some TSLA to buy more SCTY a few weeks ago. I don't know exactly how they do they all the accounting, but I'm not locked in.

As I understand the terms (and I'm attaching the Fidelity brochure on this for anyone who wants more detail), basically my only risk is if Fidelity goes bankrupt... Edit: actually even then I'm covered - my collateral is being held by an outside bank.

Ive never loaned out shares, however, I don't see how a brokerage is taking on risk if I loan out shares that I own. If shares are owned on margin that is obviously different but I don't know that you can loan shares that are on margin? I should look into it, I'll gladly loan out shares to the shorties, may hurt company/share price short term but will pay off in the end when they get burned.

It's worth looking into. I've got TSLA shares with Fidelity, Scottrade, and Ameritrade - only Fidelity is offering me $$$ for loaning them out.

My understanding is that if you have a margin account, you have automatically agreed to loan out your shares, and the brokerage pockets the profits.But I guess that might be just my brokerage, not a general rule.

You know...that would explain why only Fidelity is offering this to me. My Fidelity account is an IRA that doesn't have a margin option. Scottrade and Ameritrade are margin accounts...

Here's the official brochure from Fidelity:View attachment Fidelity Fully Paid Lending.pdf

- - - Updated - - -

Which reminds me - I thought I read somewhere that if you create a limit sell order (say Tesla at $240), the brokerage can't loan out your shares. Anyone know if there's any truth to that? Maybe the margin accounts can increase the short pain some by doing that...

 

[Fallenone]

I heard something similar too. So if anyone really wants to "trap" the shorts, it doesn't hurt to place sell limit on your long position at a very high price and set the time in effect to good til cancel.

Which reminds me - I thought I read somewhere that if you create a limit sell order (say Tesla at $240), the brokerage can't loan out your shares. Anyone know if there's any truth to that? Maybe the margin accounts can increase the short pain some by doing that...

 

[Papafox]

Here's a positive data point. A production Model X 90D reservation holder with a 12XXX reservation number was contacted by his delivery specialist today with a message that his vehicle will be ready in April.
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/63718-An-update-from-my-DS-about-my-90D

Also, the 90D Model X res holders have been quite communicative today as several received VIN numbers. It was noted that all those receiving VIN numbers are from California.
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...on-Sig)-Model-X-Vin-s-now-being-issued/page33

 

[Causalien]

It's an annual rate, paid out monthly. I can exit anytime I want - in fact I sold some TSLA to buy more SCTY a few weeks ago. I don't know exactly how they do they all the accounting, but I'm not locked in. As I understand the terms (and I'm attaching the Fidelity brochure on this for anyone who wants more detail), basically my only risk is if Fidelity goes bankrupt... Edit: actually even then I'm covered - my collateral is being held by an outside bank. It's worth looking into. I've got TSLA shares with Fidelity, Scottrade, and Ameritrade - only Fidelity is offering me $$$ for loaning them out. You know...that would explain why only Fidelity is offering this to me. My Fidelity account is an IRA that doesn't have a margin option. Scottrade and Ameritrade are margin accounts... Here's the official brochure from Fidelity:View attachment 113545 - - - Updated - - - Which reminds me - I thought I read somewhere that if you create a limit sell order (say Tesla at $240), the brokerage can't loan out your shares. Anyone know if there's any truth to that? Maybe the margin accounts can increase the short pain some by doing that...

There is no truth to that. The actual rule is. If your cash falls below 0. i.e. you are borrowing on your margin to buy, then the brokerage have full right to lend out your shares for shorts.

 

[Johan]

In case there are some who never venture out of the Investment section of the forum, or this thread:

Unveiling Official Invite in LA on 3/31 in Evening

 

[Buddyroe]

Just an FYI for how quickly superchargers are found these days when construction starts. This doesn't ALWAYS happen, but it is VERY typical. Warsaw, NC was changed to construction last night when someone found this picture.

The good news is that this is the first construction start in quite a while. Hopefully it means that things are about to crank back up. I feel better.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

Just an FYI for how quickly superchargers are found these days when construction starts. This doesn't ALWAYS happen, but it is VERY typical. Warsaw, NC was changed to construction last night when someone found this picture.

The good news is that this is the first construction start in quite a while. Hopefully it means that things are about to crank back up. I feel better.

Champaign, IL showed up quickly as well:

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/57667-Supercharger-Champaign-IL/page5?p=1391887&viewfull=1#post1391887

 

[Krugerrand]

I don't think they've abandoned it - I think this pause is is necessitated by a lack of money due to WAY over-spending on the X. That's what really gets me. Sometimes we get so caught up in the glamour, that we don't realize what it really important. The supercharger network, IMHO, is the TRUE differentiation between Tesla and any other manufacturer of EVs. Since I find that SO important, I want to see the network grow incredibly rapidly. I mean, like 500-1000 per year. That is why I watch them SO closely. Some people look for heads and shoulders in charts, I look at the infrastructure growth.

Let's remember that NOBODY, including you, even considered anything remotely like the SuperCharger Network prior to Tesla announcing it and building it. Nobody. In fact, when it was first mentioned by Tesla the news was met by mostly crickets and then doubt and then criticism (and now more criticism by you (for example) for not building it out fast enough to your liking and/or deciding to spend that money somewhere else temporarily or running into permitting issues, or, or, or, or, or).

I'd venture a guess that Tesla knows the importance of the SuperCharger Network going forward.

But, I only brought up the supercharger pause because I am shocked that rarely does anyone mention things about the actual company in this thread. No discussion of the infrastructure build-out, no discussion about the ramp up issues with the X, no discussion about the number of X's delivered so far. It's like people want to ignore anything potentially negative because they can't handle it, but then they're shocked when the stock price goes down. You have to understand and know all of it if you want to have a good idea about where the stock is headed - even in the short term.

Not true, but thanks for mentioning it. Can we move on now?

 

[dreamingof3]

Stock acting weird again tanking on low volume. Hopefully trapping more shorts. We can feel free to break above 195 anytime now please.

 

[Krugerrand]

Stock acting weird again tanking on low volume.

Wait a minute and then you can announce it bounced. Wait another minute and you can cheer it went green. Wait another minute and you can panic again.

 

[uselesslogin]

Well there were no shares to short at the end of the day at Interactive Brokers. Today they found 200,000 more at a fee rate of 12.1%. So far 50,000 are gone. I'm curious to see if there is a reversal around the time that number gets to 0. Of course, being only one broker the picture is not complete enough to make a real prediction. Also, so far today it looks like TSLA is really just trading with the market.

 

[dreamingof3]

Well there were no shares to short at the end of the day at Interactive Brokers. Today they found 200,000 more at a fee rate of 12.1%. So far 50,000 are gone. I'm curious to see if there is a reversal around the time that number gets to 0. Of course, being only one broker the picture is not complete enough to make a real prediction. Also, so far today it looks like TSLA is really just trading with the market.

All it will take is a huge buyer buying without a margin account to get this stock ripping higher. put in sell limit orders as high as possible if you have a margin account.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

There is no truth to that. The actual rule is. If your cash falls below 0. i.e. you are borrowing on your margin to buy, then the brokerage have full right to lend out your shares for shorts.

Any idea how that works for my case?

Plenty of money in account, but most of it is puts I sold for credit, puts with long expiration, with strikes anywhere between 150 to 250. Some shares and calls too. Only small margin space left. Margin on a short put is calculated this way: say I sell June 200 strike put and price is 185. I need to have in account 15 of real value and 1/2 of current strike price. i.e. 185/2=92.5. Overall 92.5+15= $107.5 of margin are tied into the trade.

I'm getting feeling that they consider case: what if someone executed puts against me today, so it makes me think they can lend my shares...

 

[Krugerrand]

Wait a minute and then you can announce it bounced. Wait another minute and you can cheer it went green. Wait another minute and you can panic again.

I was wrong. Took 20 minutes to happen. :wink:

 

[McMuggets]

I must say this Supercharger talk is probably only relevant in that the USA is largely covered and just needs upgrades to its existing Supercharger stations (more charging bays, etc.). Could it be more perfect? Of course. But reality is that Tesla needs to concentrate on other foreign markets as well as keep cash-burn lower, in order to shoot toward positive cashflow from overall operations. I do not know any other car company that is building cars and simultaneously building it's own network of fueling stations. New Superchargers are for markets that need more sales penetration, whereas the US market is already quite mature. If I were the CFO Wheeler, I would direct most Supercharger monies toward markets that would bring the most unit car sales per station. To concentrate so crazily on Superchargers (buddyroe) as some sort of reliable linear indicator of sales growth, is a stretch.

Regarding the Model X "issues" etc... I think it has been discussed over and over in this thread. But there's only so many ways to discuss speculations about windshields, falcon doors, and rubber sealing. The big picture is that more and more X's are being delivered to rave reviews and more reservations for the X are being invited to configure. That's the truth.

 

[FredTMC]

Great to see TSLA positive on this down day. Let's push thru $190. The citron BS was revealed to be hot air