Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Julian Cox]

There has been a thermal run away event with a lithium ion home battery in Australia. Not a Tesla Powerwall, but this could raise fire concerns for all home battery makers.

Tesla can simply point to its cars and the volume of batteries it has deployed and to the fact that home storage is a far less demanding environment. If competitors can't get their act together, this is simply a competitive advantage for Tesla.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Daimler receives huge order from Uber: Manager Magazin
There is something very awkward about this article.

The article says Uber has placed an order with Daimler for 100,000 vehicles, highlights Uber looking at autonomous vehicles, then says:

"Uber HAD placed a long-term order for at least 100,000 Mercedes S-Class cars."

The article doesn't say both companies confirmed Uber has placed an order for 100,000 Mercedes S-Class.

Is this a typo or is the article misleading?

I suppose it would make sense for Uber to order 100,000 Mercedes since most taxis in Germany are Mercedes E-Class, though it's not clear this is the case. Also, the claim comes from Manager Magazin, doesn't cite any person, and states:

"Daimler declined to comment. Representatives for Uber in Germany were not immediately available to comment"

By saying Representatives for Uber were not immediately available to comment, the author is basically stating Uber did comment, however, no comment was included in the article. Strange.

 

[Julian Cox]

If memory serves me right he predicted $350 by July, +/- 1 month and +/- 10%. But in one recent post it would seem he kind of took it back saying maybe the market won't understand the importance of the Model 3 that quickly.

(Between those posts he said he felt he had more or less figured out the game of Go after reading the rules and looking at a board for 2 minutes, so take whatever he says with a pound-sized grain of salt.)

It was @dreamingof3 something like $242 or $249 and I said by May for the socks. Either way it was always a safe bet aimed at getting a long to stop talking down his own stock holding. The bet will likely be won by the end of this month if not the end of next week.

As for the game of Go, I take that as snark - and one that should be beneath you Johan. All I pointed out was that the logic of it is a semantic tree emanating from the opponent interface and the edge of the board not a field of near infinite compound possibility. I would suggest that mocking this observation is not the smartest thing you have said here.

Edit: Actually to my mind, the closest and most interesting parallels between AlphaGO and the human mind is probably the ability to ignore overwhelming amounts of irrelevant data and still function to perform a task. For example, right now I am concentrating on characters on a screen and some keys on a computer. This room that I am in could in theory be examined nanometer at a time by an electron microscope or even taking every particle in it and running it through a Large Hydron Collider to find out what is on the inside of each one. The ability to ignore all of that and just focus on something is crucial to achieving anything like writing.

 

[Gerardf]

Daimler receives huge order from Uber: Manager Magazin
There is something very awkward about this article.

The article says Uber has placed an order with Daimler for 100,000 vehicles, highlights Uber looking at autonomous vehicles, then says:

"Uber HAD placed a long-term order for at least 100,000 Mercedes S-Class cars."

The article doesn't say both companies confirmed Uber has placed an order for 100,000 Mercedes S-Class.

Is this a typo or is the article misleading?

I suppose it would make sense for Uber to order 100,000 Mercedes since most taxis in Germany are Mercedes E-Class, though it's not clear this is the case.

Here is the source:
Daimler: Uber offenbar an autonom fahrenden S-Klassen interessiert - manager magazin

I am still 'analyzing' the article, however it is clear it is a conditional deal (related to autonomous driving).


Die Bestellung hänge allerdings noch an diversen Bedingungen.
So interessiere sich Kalanick zunächst nur für autonom steuernde Versionen des Mercedes-Flaggschiffs. Die werde es jedoch voraussichtlich erst nach 2020 geben, heißt es in Stuttgart.

Quick & dirty translation:
The order however hangs on several conditions. E.g. Kalanick initially is only interested in autonomous driving versions of the Mercedes flagship. These will however be available earliest after 2020.

 

[Johan]

All I pointed out was that the logic of it is a semantic tree emanating from the opponent interface and the edge of the board not a field of near infinite compound possibility. I would suggest that mocking this observation is not the smartest thing you have said here.

I'm sorry for offending you and I agree that my commenting was a bit snarky. I will leave it up to anyone interested to make up their own mind as to whether your understanding and principles of reasoning around the concept of the game of Go has any bearing on how to value your input with regards to Tesla and TSLA. The obvious argument against me bringing it up is that you obviously have expert knowledge and understanding of Tesla, but only rudimentary knowledge of Go. On the other hand the general principles of how a person approaches any complex problem and the person's attitudes toward their own abilities, including limitations should, IMO, be factored in when valuing that persons's input on any issue - even the issue at which he or she seems to be an expert.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Here is the source:
Daimler: Uber offenbar an autonom fahrenden S-Klassen interessiert - manager magazin

I am still 'analyzing' the article, however it is clear it is a conditional deal (related to autonomous driving).


Die Bestellung hänge allerdings noch an diversen Bedingungen.
So interessiere sich Kalanick zunächst nur für autonom steuernde Versionen des Mercedes-Flaggschiffs. Die werde es jedoch voraussichtlich erst nach 2020 geben, heißt es in Stuttgart.

Quick & dirty translation:
The order however hangs on several conditions. E.g. Kalanick initially is only interested in autonomous driving versions of the Mercedes flagship. These will however be available earliest after 2020.

Google Translate quote from article that stood out to me.

Thus Kalanick interested initially only for autonomously controlling versions of the Mercedes flagship.The will, however, likely to give it until after 2020, according to Stuttgart.

Even the business context of the possible large order is not clear. Daimler announced to having only about new mobility models can be thought of collaborations with various partners.

This basically means the orders probably won't occur until after 2020, and will involve a collaboration with Daimler's "new mobility partners". (Tesla?)

I'm almost certain Daimler mentioned Tesla as a critical partner at the "new mobility conference". Anyone know which video I'm thinking of?.

 

[Gerardf]

An interesting graphic I saw on StockTwits:

http://charts.stocktwits.com/production/original_51390982.png?1458302028

In case any shorts still feel that low oil prices is killing Tesla.

 

[Cattledog]

Just posted a couple of forums over, Tesla employees were allowed to place Model 3 orders starting early this morning.

Tesla Employees have begun orders of Model 3

 

[schonelucht]

Local Belgian media reported today that Eneco (large energy company in Europe) has delivered the first Tesla Powerwall in Belgium. The article mentions prices including installation and a specialed inverter starting from 5900EUR up to 7700EUR. Despite that price there is keen interest by the Belgian consumers : Eneco has 1150 orders. Here is a link : Geen subsidies voor dure thuisbatterij Warning : it's in Dutch but the article contains a picture of the installation.

 

[demetri]

FYI, I am going to m3 event, and confirmation says rides will be given to everyone there.
I'm putting a deposit down for one or possibly two if they allow it. Early S and sig X owner.
At least 10 people at work are putting deposits down and they are not previous owners. A few are going to tesla store and getting in line.
Simply love our X a few minor issues taken care of by SC. Everyone that I have shown the car find it unbelievable.
Held my core stock holdings thru decline, lost money on Jan and march calls.
Bought June 200 calls a month ago at 14, 10 and 6 avg. 9 they are flying!

Trying to decide if I sell before or after event, inclined to keep them.

 

[SBenson]

It's not yet picked up by the broader media but it likely will so reporting here since a short term reaction is possible (but not necessary) : the Norway supercharger fire investigation has concluded and apparently it's due to an fault in the car itself, most likely the HVJB although the exact cause is not (yet) clear. Tesla will push out an OTA software update as a precaution.

Tesla-brannen: Kortslutning i bilen, men vet ikke hvorfor

This has bunch more detail. The fire happened because of a short-circuit inside the car's charging system. But Tesla believes this is very isolated and is also working on a precautionary software update.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

I don't think we can completely discount that this was in the state of Texas.

Meaning what, mejojo?

• Texas TM employees don't actually like the product, because ...Texas?
• TADA has planted moles in the TX TM workforce to hamper the mission?
• Texas TM employees lie?

Please elaborate, mejojo from CA. Thanks!

"Tex"

 

[Julian Cox]

After a brief hiatus I come back and see that being steadfast in purchasing shares on the cheap in the face of steep drops has worked nicely! Julian, do you think your $400 price prediction for July 2016 could still hold true? (correct me if I am wrong on the price target number)

Yes. There has been no change to the formula that predicts a circa $400 peak in Q3 2016 and hence no change in the prediction. The only thing that has happened was a media FUD cycle going on about a macro disaster that took root in the hiatus before the TSLA Q4 ER call in mid Feb. Now it is payback time for that FUD overlaid with all the formulaic good stuff about Model X and Tesla Energy joining Model S in generating revenues and income, and three quarters of modest spending before the main Model 3 spend kicks off at the end of the year - all that to a back drop of Model 3 unveil and consumers going nuts to get in line for reservations. I say $400 peak (always have) because I think about $100 of that will be attributable to the crest of a short squeeze with about $300 - $320 as the rational support level to exit the year.

 

[Krugerrand]

It's not yet picked up by the broader media but it likely will so reporting here since a short term reaction is possible (but not necessary) : the Norway supercharger fire investigation has concluded and apparently it's due to an fault in the car itself, most likely the HVJB although the exact cause is not (yet) clear. Tesla will push out an OTA software update as a precaution.

Going to need a source/link/something on that, pls and tx.

 

[Gerasimental]

Called a UK store.
Up to 2 reservations per customer, non-transferable. This means no big fleet orders of a few hundred or even dozens, but still allows S owners or others to but for their family (husband & wife team could reserve 4)

To the question of whether they've had much interest: 'Oh my god, yes. It's crazy. It's been crazy.'

 

[Ukland Wombat]

The term "Over Engineered" - It does not sit right with me. Sets off my BS detector.

I understand what you are trying to say but as and investor and a possible customer for the X, I would not have been happier with an under-engineered Model X. Something passable to help make sales and cash flow figures sooner. I can see a great deal of merit in pushing the limits on an ancillary Gen 2 vehicle. Every difficulty they encountered with Model X makes me happier that the main event, Model 3, won't face that same difficulty.

I think the main problem with the "Over Engineered" comment is the presumption that what they were trying to achieve was early FCF and additional sales and they screwed up by sticking to their principles to deliver a ground-breaking car. I just think they stuck to their principles. There are too many unprincipled car makers out there and as an investor I don't ever want Tesla to stoop to that level and become an also-ran.

I'm with you on this with my unease at lumping the investor perspective with the "over engineered" criticism. Would that have been said of the early iPhones too?

 

[Gerardf]

Tesla-brannen: Kortslutning i bilen, men vet ikke hvorfor

This has bunch more detail. The fire happened because of a short-circuit inside the car's charging system. But Tesla believes this is very isolated and is also working on a precautionary software update.

I remember that early European MS in The Netherlands received a F/W update to reduced charging rates. These were increased again after some maintenance was done at the service center on the junction box. I wonder if this is related and if that Norwegian car had that Junction box modification done.

 

[Causalien]

Short term. It now looks like we will close that $240 gap as we run up to the M3 event. This is a perfect setup for buy the rumour and sell the news.

Pretty sure programmer have already coded it into their HFT somewhere. So unless M3 blows people's mind, we follow the algos. If I remember Model D, leaks happen 1 days before and then the fade happened 2~3 days after becuase it was such a surprise.

 

[theschnell]

We seem to be battling over the 200 day moving average right now... I would think that if it closes above it, that would be bullish, at least for the short-term...

 

[Johan]

View attachment 167575 Here's a graphic of today's after-hours trading. I was impressed with the nearly-two-dollar jump after hours. This seldom happens. I see it as a bullish sign.

Good call. We had a proper gap-up on today's open: