IIRC, what was said a year or so ago was "Within 3 business days of the end of the quarter". So it could be as late as Tuesday. They've always beat that deadline before, but then there were things keeping them busy on Friday...
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Also, just a basic question here, but wasn't TSLA being shorted like crazy on Friday? The volume never really dipped below 50,000/5 minute period during the trading session. It even opened with 1,000,000 - that's unheard of for TSLA. When they (shorts) get calls from their brokers, won't that drive the price up? Plus why haven't analysts upgraded yet - are they waiting to see if Tesla can deliver on manufacturing 250,000+ units in a timely fashion?
Supposed to happen today. I think it will have a big impact on stock action tomorrow. M3 reservations is awesome sizzle, but many Bears don't think Tesla will deliver the Model 3 on time, or with positive margins, or without major problems, etc. They also think M3 reservations will hurt Model S orders (when in reality they will increase because of more customer interest and traffic, etc.). We need some nice steak in the form of good Q1 delivery numbers.
Thanks Rafael. Yes your view is in the majority among 'post-the-mosters' to this thread.
I like getting my head kicked in by you guys. It has been very useful to help build confidence in my own judgement on how I see things unrolling from here.
In fact, since the unveil, I have realised that I had been thinking with too little fantasy and grandiosity, not too much!
If Q1 delivery numbers turn out OK I will spell it all out for you in a simple numbered list of likely events for 2016. You will enjoy ripping my list apart even more when you see it and equally I will look forward to enjoying the sport of commenting (with any who will stoop to comment on mine).
In the meantime, here is a little food for thought:
Tesla is a Trojan Horse. It looks like an automaker, but in its belly are the blue-prints for Gigafactories.
If that little statement is too hard for you 'post-the-mosters' to swallow, then please answer me this:
Why has Tesla pushed its global expansion so far so soon when it is only a piddly little automaker with an infinitesimal fraction of the global market? Seems imprudent, very risky, wouldn't you say? Better to expand solidly from strength, win a good share of the home market and then move to new markets.
It happens to me sometimes I just forgetElon promised to tweet 3 day total tonight but didn't!
Andrea James updated her price target to $500. For years, her comments regarding Tesla have been among the most intelligent. More analysts' upgrades will come. Some people worry about model 3's profit margin. Tesla's general rule is to have 25% gross. They will not sell the base model 3 at a loss. In my view, the gross for base will be above 10%. But who will not option the autopilot software upgrade? That's $2500 at almost no additional cost to Tesla. That will push model 3's gross to 6k. In long term, I think the cumulative sales of model 3 (sedan + SUV) will pass 20 million. The total profit on these cars is not a small number.
One more thing, low oil price is good for Tesla's margin. high oil will increase the demand for Tesla's cars, but negative for the margin. Because most of the industry metals' prices are more or less linked to oil's movement. What I am trying to say is, if metals' prices go up in the next few years, it will have a slight negative impact to the margin on model 3. I hope they link the price to inflation, instead of a fixed $35,000. Lots of people set high hopes to the Q1 delivery number. I can't imagine how that can be a huge number, and I don't think it's very important. Q2 will be much more dramatic.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Elon answered this question in 2006:
"This is because the overarching purpose of Tesla Motors (and the reason I am funding the company) is to help expedite the move from a mine-and-burn hydrocarbon economy towards a solar electric economy, which I believe to be the primary, but not exclusive, sustainable solution."
The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me)
Yes Johan, that is indeed the simple answer in its most digestible form. Most understandable to most of humanity.
I would say that Musk has a habit of telling the public, Tesla shareholders, and Tesla car owners, only what they need to know when they need to know it. If he would get carried away by explaining too much too soon of his plans, he would quickly become a laughing stock in the capital markets (like I am in this thread) so thwarting his goals whenever he needs to raise.
Edit] So we have Musks well known statements of overarching goals...but expanding so far so fast is still a risk isn't it? (stumble in China etc). So normally, we only take big risks when the pay off is really big. Please tell me what is the huge pay off...is it just to carry on with 50% yoy growth, or something much much faster by way of growth?
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I really really seriously want Musk / Tesla to stop posting M3 reservation numbers. I hope they have stopped on the basis of any excuse whatsoever and resume the standard operating procedure of confidentiality established for Model S and Model X reservations asap.
I get it that it would be weird not to say something when there are lines around the block but this is a proprietary information asset and I want to know that its value to Tesla is accumulating in the Tesla business and not given away any more. The auto and oil industry will not respond to this in the timescales that matter (i.e. the immediate prior to Model 3 full ramp) by trying harder to make compelling EVs instead of trying to protect ICE sales and trying harder to diversify into Solar rather than defending gasoline sales.
Musk is entirely free to give away access to patent information because that is a poisoned chalice to the ICE auto industry - one good sip from that cup with intent to strike down Tesla and that's one less ICE automaker in the world - fully attributable to a management blunder on behalf of the ICE automaker that Tesla cannot be blamed for.
In my sincere opinion the ONLY business risk of any significance Tesla now faces is abuse of this reservation information. 250,000 units is OK - much closer to a million in the US will reverse 2015 gains in the US auto sector new vehicle demand essentially creating another US auto industry recession compounded by the fact that that industry is planning for a better year in 2016 than last year, resulting in chaos - and for example defeating the entire premise of recent multi $billion long term investments made by Ford.
Without the risk of abuse of what could and should in my view be Tesla's proprietary secret data, if the truth be told Tesla effectively holds an execution guarantee on a trajectory that Rockefeller would be have been envious of. Anyone that says otherwise is confused for whatever reason best suits them.
There is Zero legitimate competitive threat and Zero problem raising whatever cash is required for execution on whatever terms Musk wishes, up to an including accepting a philanthropic gift from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation or similar which is not something that has a 0% probability of occurring and might not be that far off the mark. Actually I think if Musk created a Tesla CapEx Charitable Trust Fund For the Future of Humanity against Global Warming to accelerate and hold the purchase of vehicle and battery production assets that could never fall directly into the hands of lenders and shareholders a lot of $billionaires and many more besides would die to to put proper philanthropic money into that both literally and figuratively even if there was a very substantial indirect benefit felt by shareholders and lenders - which of course would be predictable and available for any such donor to participate in. For example half a $billion split evenly between the Trust fund and the publicly traded stock would probably come close to break even on gains in the stock portion.
Unless Musk has an immediate Model 3 production ramp up his sleeve (seems unlikely but not entirely impossible considering Fremont is apparently full of production equipment that cannot be explained away for Model X and Model S alone) the only thing Tesla cannot defend itself from is getting hauled before Congress for collapsing the US auto industry with a reservation program and no compensating industrial boom to show for it for a minimum of 18 months and the only way Tesla can be blamed for it is by declaring to the world the numbers that demonstrate that its reservation program is at the root cause and the missing customers are sitting in a Tesla server rack un-served by anyone until further notice of achieving the hitherto impossible.
Musk is a lot smarter than me and he has full access to insider information of which I have none, yet if someone has Musk's ear please will you forward this message to him regardless, just in case this point has succumbed to hubris during what should rightfully in any sane world be an unabashed celebration.
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tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
Last time, Tesla announced delivery numbers on Sunday, January 3: Tesla Delivers 17,400 Vehicles in Q4 2015; Total 2015 Deliveries Were 50,580
I would be surprised if they don't announce Q1 deliveries today. Hope they do.
I would be surprised if they don't announce Q1 deliveries today. Hope they do.
roblab
Active Member
Not painful. Several errors, starting with price: Tesla is $35K BEFORE rebates, Bolt is $37,500 after rebates. Other points are more opinions of the author. Obviously he has never driven either one, nor any electric, knows nothing about charging times, range, range anxiety, etc. etc.
Meh.
Your post is very reasonably argued. So much that I get it.
However, I am pleased that Musk is in tight twitter control of the Tesla story at this point. It is a hugely bullish signal to me and a vindication of my expectations pre-unveil. It indicates Musk is swinging for the fences! (he didn't take your advice on swinging for the fences before the unveil, Julian, and IMHO he won't act on your message after the unveil, either...if someone should whisper it in his ear.)
[Notice that the tone conveyed by my words is changing (not as authoritative as you, Julian, but getting there!). My tone correlates well with my confidence in my own judgement. Thanks to this forum, it has gone up (mental entropy gone down).]
The first time Tesla released quarterly deliveries (Q1, 2015) right after the end of the quarter, they stated in the press release:
"Going forward, Tesla will publish the number of new car deliveries within three days of quarter end."
If this is three business days, that would be important to know. Can you provide a source? So far, the deliveries have been announced within 3 days, even if on a weekend.
The 10m reservations this April is just overly delusional. That's 333k reservations per day in average.
Bolt is $37,500 before rebates.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
I'd rather see the stock go up on Monday (tomorrow) without the Q1 numbers. then after the close or Tuesday morning, release the Q1 numbers
Krugerrand
Meow
Elon promised to tweet 3 day total tonight but didn't!
The running total counter probably broke. Or he got sidetracked trying to figure out the best way for Tesla to double Model 3 production in the original time frame.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
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