Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Ulmo]

"Credit Suisse announced another $300 million financing deal for additional solar installations by SCTY"

Wow, looks like Solar City is rolling in dough. This should help the high-metabolism Tesla quite a bit.

 

[AlMc]

Cuomo Praises Planned Panasonic-Tesla Collaboration In Buffalo
The plans for SolarCity’s factory in Buffalo, the keystone project of the Buffalo Billion, appear to be expanding. That is as long as a planned merger between SolarCity and Tesla Motors is approved by shareholders.

Tesla announced in a blog post Sunday evening an agreement in principle for an expanded partnership with Panasonic. The electronics giant would produce photovoltaic (PV) cells in the Buffalo factory for use in solar power home installations.

The Panasonic-produced cells would work with Tesla’s Powerwall and Powerpack, a home battery system that charges using electricity generated from solar panels. SolarCity is already planning to make the Buffalo RiverBend facility the largest solar panel factory in North America.

“The continued partnership between Tesla and Panasonic is an important step in creating fully integrated energy products for businesses, homeowners and utilities, and furthers Tesla’s mission toward a sustainable energy future,” the Tesla team wrote.

In a statement Monday, Gov. Andrew Cuomo and economic czar Howard Zemsky praised the plans. Cuomo pointed to it as another sign his embattled Buffalo Billion economic development plan is working.

“After more than 50 years of stagnation and decline, we have seen the trajectory of Western New York trending upward, with transformational momentum across a range of industries. Our investments across the region continue to bear fruit, and this agreement further cements Western New York’s position as a national leader in clean power technology and cutting-edge innovation,” he said.

Zemsky, who as the president of Empire State Development now oversees the bidding process for all state development contracts, said Panasonic’s manufacturing expertise will strengthen Tesla’s competitiveness in the market.

“By bringing Tesla and Panasonic together, this innovative partnership will transform Buffalo into a national leader in the production of affordable, reliable clean energy. This is a far-reaching agreement that will keep the momentum moving forward in Western New York for years to come,” he said.

The two companies already collaborate on the production of electronic vehicle and grid storage battery cells, according to the blog post. Those are produced at the Tesla Gigafactory in Nevada.

The deal is non-binding and will come down to a vote by Tesla shareholders to purchase SolarCity, scheduled for November. SolarCity’s board of directors and the U.S. Securities and Exchange commission have already approved the $2.6 billion merger


Bolded section by me. Did I miss that the SEC approved the deal?

 

[stealthology]

Product unveiling is the October 28th event:
Tesla to hold a special event at the Gigafactory on January 4, 2017

Tesla tweeted shortly after Elon made his delay treet:

 

[RobStark]

"Credit Suisse announced another $300 million financing deal for additional solar installations by SCTY"

This is obviously a lie propagated by the mainstream media in collusion with dirt worshiping millionaire hippies because everybody KNOWS Solar City is a hop step and a jump away from bankruptcy. And Credit Suisse does not give away $300M to firms that are about to go under.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Did I miss that the SEC approved the deal?

Yes, you did: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1778338/

 

[AlMc]

Yes, you did: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1778338/

Thanks! I call it steak. Maybe not filet, but steak none the less!

 

[stealthology]

Elon had a great tweet about Germany saying the term Autopilot couldn't be used, he said "Umm...Autobahn?" (it's a pun...Autopilot Banned...in German...ish)

Not only that, it's a little ironic Germany is so concerned with Tesla's Autopilot yet they have the federally run autobahn, which lets you drive as fast as you want on much of it.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Here are a couple of interesting charts on the projected worldwide battery manufacturing capacity. Note that Tesla GF is represented using outdated projected cell manufacturing capacity of 35GWh. The current projected capacity is 105GWh. So based on outdated projected capacity of 35GWh, according to Deutsche Bank data, Tesla is expected to have 13.5% of the world production capacity in 2020. Factoring in updated capacity of 105GWh (cell production), Tesla's share is 31.8%. This indicates that Tesla is planning on taking about 30% share of the Li-Ion Battery market.

As indicated in in today's note by Baird, we are going to hear more about TE plans during the Q3 ER.

 

[tander]

If it goes to $300 by then I will buy you a steak at your retirement dinner!

No sizzle...just steak

Okay let's think that through.
-Right now the price is 200ish, so it needs a 50% gain to get to 300, not a massive gain by Tesla standards. For example it was something like a 65% gain going into the M3 announcement with the consequent reservations.
-So, we've got a new product announcement this week, maybe good for a a few percent gain, maybe five percent max?
-Then next week we've got earnings, let's assume it's a home run but maybe not a grand slam, so maybe that with good guidance and some analyst upgrades we get another ten percent gain.
-Then there is the new solar panel announcement, that's probably going to be pretty boring. But then maybe a few days later at the merger info dump they'll announce like x-thousand reservations, and the hype continues. They might announce they already have enough votes for the merger to go through, or maybe even just expedite it and tell all us retail investors thanks but no thanks for our votes since the major funds already confirmed yes. And the merger starts to make more sense as the media admits that oh yeah solar+batteries=cheap independent energy=a product that is best in class and sells itself. So we figure that all is good for maybe another ten percent.
-So the stock price is now around 250. Then maybe they drop the M3 reservations tally and a date for the final reveal, and maybe there's still room for AP 2.0. That's maybe good for another ten percent.
-Now we're pushing the all time high, wait oops, no I forgot Hillary wins the election and Panasonic seals the Buffalo deal so that's probably good for another five percent. Plus they start hyping the Gigafactory opening which is good for some too. Now we're at a new all time high, and the bomb drops. Remember that s4? They do a massive cap raise and it actually makes the stock go up, a lot of FUD is removed because of all that cash, and we've got another ten percent and you're buying steak.

Of course maybe q3 ends up being a dud somehow or the market takes a big dive after the election and all this is moot.

 

[AudubonB]

I posit that from this day forth, the option formerly known as "Autopilot" will henceforth be known as "Kraftwerk".

For the proof...working backwards:
The band Kraftwerk has a song (very long song!) called Autobahn.

Elon had a great tweet about Germany saying the term Autopilot couldn't be used, he said "Umm...Autobahn?" (it's a pun...Autopilot Banned...in German...ish),

Thus, as the word Autopilot is being banned in Germany should now be called "Kraftwerk". Q.E.D.

I should retire my name......

 

[sundaymorning]

Now I know why they call it the Apple graveyard.

No Jony Ive Apple Car Commercials as Project Titan Blows an Engine

 

[austinEV]

Netflix -- now, or opening bell Tuesday (assuming no changes) -- has a LARGER MARKET CAP than General Motors.

Sorry to repeat, it's just weird.

And remember this the next time some Bear says "Tesla can't be worth more than GM". GM isn't worth much due to it's shaky market position and massive legacy costs.

My meta-analysis of this thread is the following (1) Substantial volume of negative outlook posts in the past few days (2) Drastically increased activity from accounts that dislike Tesla Motors.

In the context of TSLA moving below 200, I would say this might be a good time for long term investors to DCA any additions of TSLA into their portfolios. The time to buy is when there is fear and uncertainty everywhere. People have called me a psychopath, abnormal, and even financially suicidal, but the fact remains that fear of loss is felt 2x happiness from gain. For abnormal people who either don't experience this or can isolate the fear, there's a lot of money to be made preying on weak sellers.

It's funny, when TSLA goes in the doldrums I just tune out and think of other positive things in my life. It's when TSLA is in the nosebleeds that I obsess over the ticker! I for one feel rises 2x more than losses. I get stressed out thinking about tops.

 

[MartinAustin]

Rename the Autopilot to "Otto." You know, like, Siri, Cortana, Alexa etc.

People will still say "the Otto pilot."

Or... call it the Oughtapilot. Because the driver oughta be driving, but the Oughtapilot actually does it.

In other news... between the new Tesla Motors tweet which says "unveiling a new Tesla product" and Elon's original tweet which says "Tesla product unveiling," I'm not so sure it's Autopilot 2.0 hardware any more. Perhaps something standalone that isn't a car... a new market sector altogether, like the Tesla Glass that has been mooted. They have been using 3D VR to help design rocket parts over at SpaceX for a while, and Tesla factory floor workers were seen using Google Glasses, I think I read. Perhaps that's it.. and it would not move the stock, in fact TSLA will fall since it is not "financial results steak."

 

[stealthology]

In other news... between the new Tesla Motors tweet which says "unveiling a new Tesla product" and Elon's original tweet which says "Tesla product unveiling," I'm not so sure it's Autopilot 2.0 hardware any more.

Just for reference, Electrek refers to the 'Tesla Vision' as a product:
Tesla responds to Mobileye’s comments on Autopilot, confirms new in-house ‘Tesla Vision’ product

 

[FredTMC]

When looking at the Macro environment. As long as Macro environment stays good, TSLA will be just fine. When you see a growth stock up by 20 percent, that tells you macro is doing just fine. BTW: Morgan Stanley just came out and said the chance of a recession is slim to nil. Adam Parker: U.S. Recession Probability 'Very Low'

Yup. Recession isn't a concern. The opposite is the concern: inflation and interest rate increases

 

[DragonWatch]

If you suffer from the Flat World Syndrome (FWS) then sell your Tesla shares and buy more fossil fuel stock. Me, I see the vision of Tesla and Elon; therefore, I have voted across the board for the merging of SCTY & TSLA. Unlike those suffering from FWS I give a damn about mankind, and the future of my planet.

My earned military rank and initials create my call sign: MajorBS49. Now you know my philosophy of Politics, Religion and Life.

 

[MitchJi]

Here are a couple of interesting charts on the projected worldwide battery manufacturing capacity. Note that Tesla GF is represented using outdated projected cell manufacturing capacity of 35GWh. The current projected capacity is 105GWh. So based on outdated projected capacity of 35GWh, according to Deutsche Bank data, Tesla is expected to have 13.5% of the world production capacity in 2020. Factoring in updated capacity of 105GWh (cell production), Tesla's share is 31.8%. This indicates that Tesla is planning on taking about 30% share of the Li-Ion Battery market.

Tesla is planning on selling everything that they can produce and they are planning to produce as much as they can. For sure at a minimal doubling the size of GF1 plus GF's in Europe and Asia.

Okay let's think that through....

-Then there is the new solar panel announcement, that's probably going to be pretty boring. But then maybe a few days later at the merger info dump they'll announce like x-thousand reservations, and the hype continues. They might announce they already have enough votes for the merger to go through, or maybe even just expedite it and tell all us retail investors thanks but no thanks for our votes since the major funds already confirmed yes. And the merger starts to make more sense as the media admits that oh yeah solar+batteries=cheap independent energy=a product that is best in class and sells itself. So we figure that all is good for maybe another ten percent.

Elon said that he merger is a no brainer, and every fund manager who he explained it to, with confidential information agreed. If that's true it's going to pass easily. IMO the SP isn't going to move very much until Elon convinces the market that it's a no brainer as well. That should be doable if he makes public the same information he gave to the fund managers.

The other headwind is M3 production. I think that $300 is possible if the SCTY merger issue gets resolved and TE starts producing income that's visible on the ER's, but any perceived problems with the M3 ramp will have a huge impact.

 

[Novice]

Tesla is planning on selling everything that they can produce and they are planning to produce as much as they can. For sure at a minimal doubling the size of GF1 plus GF's in Europe and Asia.

Elon said that he merger is a no brainer, and every fund manager who he explained it to, with confidential information agreed. If that's true it's going to pass easily. IMO the SP isn't going to move very much until Elon convinces the market that it's a no brainer as well. That should be doable if he makes public the same information he gave to the fund managers.

The other headwind is M3 production. I think that $300 is possible if the SCTY merger issue gets resolved and TE starts producing income that's visible on the ER's, but any perceived problems with the M3 ramp will have a huge impact.

So I assume he will be making the confidential info public during the ER to sell the merger deal ?

 

[mrdoubleb]

How about Autopilotabernichtganzautonom ? Rolls right off the tongue.

Très allemand, no?

HAHAHAH that was awesome! Yeah, Germans tend to have something as catchy as that.

OT: I always laughed so hard when I read the local TV guide and saw the big German channels. What they often did with movies is kept the American title and then give it a German title that was like 2 lines long and kind of explained the movie.

 

[MitchJi]

So I assume he will be making the confidential info public during the ER to sell the merger deal ?

I hope so, and my options hope so!

More likely when they show the Solar Roof and TE2, which I think is two days after the ER?