Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Turing]

The hardware will work but the software won't be turned on until it's ready. For it to become ready it needs to be fed with a higher volume of real time data captured with the full sensor suite. Hence cars with all the hardware present and active must get on the road ASAP, and it's in everyone's interest (including buyers who long for autonomous driving level 5) to get cars out there to collect data.

Right, and if tesla just started including the new hardware and didn't say anything because it wanted to wait until the software was ready, it wouldn't make a difference as people would soon find additional cameras and radars and then the new HW would be reported ad nauseam and Tesla would have to make a official announcement anyway and so really there isn't a better way to do it then just announcing the HW is shipping on all new production cars and the software is soon to follow.

Now compare Tesla's position here to Uber's. Uber has what a few dozen highly equipped test cars puttering around pittsburgh collecting data. Tesla will be churning out onto the roads over 2k of these fully equipped AP 2 cars per week, . Even when no AP is on tesla will still be collecting all this valuable data. And tesla owners tend to be wealthier/better educated, more technie people, e.g. ideal early adapters / beta testers.

 

[racer26]

It's going to be really interesting to see what big taxi has to say about autonomous Tesla's taking over their market. You thought they were upset about Uber and Lyft, where there was still a driver in the car? Look out.

 

[justdoit]

So when will Jonas upgrade his price target back to $465? This was the reason for the hike last year Morgan Stanley Massively Hikes Price Target on Tesla, Says Stock Could Almost Double

 

[racer26]

Right, and if tesla just started including the new hardware and didn't say anything because it wanted to wait until the software was ready, it wouldn't make a difference as people would soon find additional cameras and radars and then the new HW would be reported ad nauseam and Tesla would have to make a official announcement anyway and so really there isn't a better way to do it then just announcing the HW is shipping on all new production cars and the software is soon to follow.

Now compare Tesla's position here to Uber's. Uber has what a few dozen highly equipped test cars puttering around pittsburgh collecting data. Tesla will be churning out onto the roads over 2k of these fully equipped AP 2 cars per week, . Even when no AP is on tesla will still be collecting all this valuable data. And tesla owners tend to be wealthier/better educated, more technie people, e.g. ideal early adapters / beta testers.

You forgot to mention the part where there was no option to roll out quietly, because then you'd have to explain why I can't use autopilot on my brand new car for the next 6 to 10 weeks.

 

[racer26]

It's going to be really interesting to see what big taxi has to say about autonomous Tesla's taking over their market. You thought they were upset about Uber and Lyft, where there was still a driver in the car? Look out.

By the same token, if Tesla substantially undercuts big taxi on price, the public won't take no for an answer from their legislators.

Should be interesting to see what the municipal legislators do to attempt to retain the tax they take in the form of taxi licensing.

 

[MP3Mike]

You forgot to mention the part where there was no option to roll out quietly, because then you'd have to explain why I can't use autopilot on my brand new car for the next 6 to 10 weeks.

Well they could have delayed it until they tested the software enough themselves, but given that Elon said they want millions of diverse miles that would probably take a long time and this is probably the best option.

 

[Mike Smith]

Bloomberg is reporting that that due to recent accidents, Tesla is discontinuing autopilot features on all new models until the features can be improved - but that they're still including sensors for future use like all other manufacturers. (also reprinted by yahoo)

Tesla Slams Brake on Driverless Cars

 

[racer26]

Well they could have delayed it until they tested the software enough themselves, but given that Elon said they want millions of diverse miles that would probably take a long time and this is probably the best option.

Correct. Elon's view is that every day level 5 autonomy is delayed is a day that people are needlessly dying.

He knows he can't get the needed regulatory approvals until he can prove its safer than human drivers, and he knows he needs a truckload of undeniable evidence to prove that to legislators.

 

[racer26]

Bloomberg is reporting that that due to recent accidents, Tesla is discontinuing autopilot features on all new models until the features can be improved - but that they're still including sensors for future use like all other manufacturers. (also reprinted by yahoo)

Tesla Slams Brake on Driverless Cars

The FUD is strong with this one.

Come on, really? They're trying to spin it by comparing Tesla sales to mobileye sales of the EyeQ series.

The majority of manufacturers are using those to provide primitive autonomous collision avoidance, not level 5 autonomy.

 

[Papafox]

So we're now some 5 hours after the announcement... Where's the video we waited 2 extra days for Elon?

The best case scenario is they release the videos to the morning news shows so that it truly is "news" in the morning. From there, it can rapidly expand to the internet. Early tomorrow morning would be the perfect time to release the videos.

 

[trils0n]

The FUD is strong with this one.

Yeah, takes quite some gymnastics to spin the first introduction of a potentially level 5 self-driving system into "slamming the brake on driverless cars". A more reasonable headline would be: "Tesla mashes the accelerator toward self driving cars."

EDIT: Autopilot was rolled out in exactly the same way, originally the cars shipped with hardware, but no software to run it. It ran in shadow mode for a while collecting data before progressively more features were enabled.

 

[MitchJi]

The best case scenario is they release the videos to the morning news shows so that it truly is "news" in the morning. From there, it can rapidly expand to the internet. Early tomorrow morning would be the perfect time to release the videos.

Who really cares? I know it's the ST thread but this is incredible news. Worst case it takes until January for Tesla to roll out enough features for everyone to figure out that this is a huge improvement. So any January or later options should be golden, not to mention the Q3 ER, Solar Roof, etc.

I'm stoked! Exactly what i was hoping for, except for the delay getting to AP 1 functionality which is a tiny speed bump in the big picture!

 

[Mike Smith]

Full autonomy is considered the grand prize in the automotive world. Tesla just announced they'll be there soon, while nobody else even has a clear path. By their own admission all other companies are at least 5 years away, and I think this is wishful thinking seeing as they haven't even begun collecting real world driving data (even what google is collecting is not real world data). I think the market is going to react a lot more favorably to this than people realize.

 

[mach.89]

Yeah, takes quite some gymnastics to spin the first introduction of a potentially level 5 self-driving system into "slamming the brake on driverless cars". A more reasonable headline would be: "Tesla mashes the accelerator toward self driving cars."

EDIT: Autopilot was rolled out in exactly the same way, originally the cars shipped with hardware, but no software to run it. It ran in shadow mode for a while collecting data before progressively more features were enabled.

Totally agree. I couldn't handle it, I had to click on the email address of that author and share my thoughts on that ridiculous article with that guy. Really aggravates me to read that.

 

[racer26]

I hope the market in the morning has the wisdom to see through the FUD headlines to just how huge it is.

 

[Johan]

Elon: where the video at? Of the Tesla navigating the urban environment autonously? Don't tell me they are busy still making it? These guys are really cutting it close with their annoucements.

Edit: Superstar post by AustinEV below! It's the bottom line that matters for stock valuation. They effectively raised the price of MX and MS several thousand dollars with a high-margin option, that will also drive sales so a double whammy there. And then there's ride sharing (Tesla Network). Hello new slice of the pie (and this is a big slice, the taxi/Uber/Lyft/Limo business is not a small economy to distrupt).

 

[austinEV]

OMG such bad analysis in this thread.

1) TM just dramatically raised the gross margin
2) Fixed lingering demand concerns. Smart fence-sitters now know they can buy future-proofed cars
3) Invoked the fantasy of obsorbing Uber and Lyft's valuation, which was a stock market darling theory for months

Bad? There is no bad. nonsense claims:
1) overhyped! yeah, here on this message board for Tesla nerds. What is reality in this bubble isn't elsewhere
2) doesn't work for 2 months! Yeah, that's because the alternative was much worse. Would you have them wait for it to work completely, shipping many more months of old HW cars? This is the right thing to do. Switch over as soon as physically possible to catch as many owners as possible. This is what they did with AP 1.0 and it was the right thing to do then as well.
3) Expensive! Yeah, so what. buy a cheaper level 5 car.

Remember that wall street doesn't care about the Tesla customer experience. New UI? don't care. Similarly they won't care if some features aren't available for a few months.

Narrative for the next week: MORE PROFIT. CAR SHARE VALUATION. Full stop.

 

[esk8mw]

Not that my take is worth much, but WOW. I'm excited about the future. Markets being what they are, I expect the stock to finish tomorrow around 195. Other than zapping some option value, I don't even care. Tesla is set to crush it in the long term and investors can now feel even better about it.

On another note, Elon just tweeted that there will be a part 3 to the Model 3 reveal series. I bet it happens at the end of March.

 

[larmor]

OMG such bad analysis in this thread.

1) TM just dramatically raised the gross margin
2) Fixed lingering demand concerns. Smart fence-sitters now know they can buy future-proofed cars
3) Invoked the fantasy of obsorbing Uber and Lyft's valuation, which was a stock market darling theory for months

Bad? There is no bad. nonsense claims:
1) overhyped! yeah, here on this message board for Tesla nerds. What is reality in this bubble isn't elsewhere
2) doesn't work for 2 months! Yeah, that's because the alternative was much worse. Would you have them wait for it to work completely, shipping many more months of old HW cars? This is the right thing to do. Switch over as soon as physically possible to catch as many owners as possible. This is what they did with AP 1.0 and it was the right thing to do then as well.
3) Expensive! Yeah, so what. buy a cheaper level 5 car.

Remember that wall street doesn't care about the Tesla customer experience. New UI? don't care. Similarly they won't care if some features aren't available for a few months.

Narrative for the next week: MORE PROFIT. CAR SHARE VALUATION. Full stop.

Agreed... TM took a high gross margin product added some electronics, which are always getting cheaper, and found a way to charge more $$. On top of that, recent uber pittsburg experiment serves as market validation...

 

[MartinAustin]

Bloomberg is reporting that that due to recent accidents, Tesla is discontinuing autopilot features on all new models until the features can be improved - but that they're still including sensors for future use like all other manufacturers. (also reprinted by yahoo)

Tesla Slams Brake on Driverless Cars

I hope they get called out pretty quickly on that despicable hit piece. I mean, it's so deliberately constructed to misinform readers... it can't possibly be simple incompetence on the part of the author.

Worst case it takes until January for Tesla to roll out enough features for everyone to figure out that this is a huge improvement.

Yes it's the ironically low-key nature of Elon to not really market this improvement that much... but it's a pretty historic development. People will really wake up when they realise the car really drives itself, and with the navigational conveniences, charging network and so on, that Tesla has an incredibly compelling product over the other manufacturers.