Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Value Ev]

Uber loses money for odd reasons though. I recall somewhere awhile ago that they took a profit of something like 4 cents per mile traveled. But they spend more in silly ways. They keep increasing the amount they take from drivers in the US, but in China they were paying $1.20 for each $1.00 they charged passengers, which is a market share battle they lost. They've also made some odd purchases, like Otto, which is a great vision, but the idea that they will be able to produce those trucks at scale before Tesla without buying batteries from Tesla is a strange notion, stranger considering they aren't the leader in self driving, or any other sector important to that business. I think uber would have been wiser to start cutting expenses now and taking in money to do other things. They've painted themselves into a corner with irrational spending on a business that they aren't capable of continuing in the long term.

I assume that Otto is a capital not an expense line item, but I could be wrong.

This seems to be the standard play - spend like crazy to be the winner, then evolve to make profit. They want to crush alternatives like the local cab companies (like Amazon crushed the local book store) and then evolve from there.

And that is the market that Tesla wants to compete in with a better mousetrap and a smaller proportion of cars.
Heck, all Uber needs to do is run a special: If you have a Tesla, we take no commission on any of your rides because we care about the environment. Not sure how Tesla would significantly compete with that. They do have the "you don't have to even be in the car" angle, but I am not sure how many people who pay $50k for a car, want unattended strangers riding in their car - sex in the back seat, ice cream cones from kids, smokers, vapers, etc.

But the good news is that they don't. They can sell $8k worth of upgrades and a promise, and that is better than competing with Uber. That is why I think the market doesn't give a big bump to the Uber competitor aspect. They may eventually, but not now.

 

[Tslynk67]

You have to switch to Belgian Brazilian brewery Anheuser-Busch InBev with global headquarters in Leuven Belgium.

Yeurgh, Stella Artois we use that for washing the dogs here in Belgium...

 

[doggusfluffy]

Please, bullet points or paragraphs or something. I lose my place trying to read this long a comment

• N
• O
• !
• 

 

[AudubonB]

Mod Note for ALL:

I'm considering go on Walkabout until after the election. One way to save my hair, I figure.

Although this is, once again, NOT a democracy, here is one time when YOU can vote!

As follows: if you think that would better the forum and its discourse for the next week, vote "Like".
If not, and you want me to keep rapping knuckles, vote "Dislike".


This oughta be inneresting...

 

[Quassinoid]

Giving an award to an ICE car is like giving an award to a flip phone.

The award hasn't been announced yet as far as I know, but the T MS 60 is a finalist. That in itself is an achievement!

 

[MitchJi]

I f part of the the reason you support Tesla is their mission statement, "accelerating the transition to sustainable energy", even as an investment strategy, how can you possibly be in favor of trump?
Imagining Donald Trump’s Energy Department: ‘It’s Like an Alternate Reality’

<Snip>
According to the forecasters over at FiveThirtyEight, Trump's chances of winning the election are at 30 percent, making him "an underdog, but no longer really a long shot."

Americans across party lines are now being forced to imagine a government operated under Trump -- a man who 370 economists and eight Nobel laureates just called a "dangerous, destructive choice” for president. (That's just one of many groups of prominent intellectuals and individual Republicans who've questioned his ability to perform the basic duties of the presidency.)

Now many within the Department of Energy are grappling with an uncertain future.

“How would you even begin to form an energy policy under a Trump administration? I don’t know. There’s no way to know what the agency would look like in that world,” said one current staffer interviewed by GTM, who asked not to be named.

Could the candidate who called climate change a "hoax created by and for the Chinese" be trusted to guide the department during a time of sweeping transformation in the energy sector?

According to those who've worked at the highest levels of the agency, the answer is simple: No.

"What’s at stake? Everything," said Jonathan Silver, an Obama appointee who led the DOE's loan guarantee office from 2009 to 2011. (After leaving DOE, Silver became an outspoken defender of the agency.)

According to Silver, many within the DOE are worried that nearly every arm of the agency will be vulnerable to attack in a hyper-partisan era.

"The scientists are concerned that we have lost interest in a national commitment to scientific inquiry and fact-based analysis. Program managers are frustrated that they cannot plan properly since their budgets come and go without rhyme or reason. The professionals who deal with DOE clients and others with business before the department are unhappy that they cannot provide better and clear guidance. And everyone is surprised by the backward-looking nature of the Trump plan, seeing it both as unworkable and destined to make America a second-tier player in the new energy economy," said Silver in a written response to GTM.

Teryn Norris, a former special adviser to the DOE, agreed that a transition from Obama to Trump would be jolting for the department.

"Off the bat, it’s likely to be a fairly antagonistic transition given the overall dynamics in the election and given his stances on energy," said Norris. "Trump has repeatedly expressed disdain for renewables, and seems likely to gut those programs in EERE [the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy]."
<Snip>

 

[SunCatcher]

Although this is, once again, NOT a democracy, here is one time when YOU can vote!

As follows: if you think that would better the forum and its discourse for the next week, vote "Like".
If not, and you want me to keep rapping knuckles, vote "Dislike".

This oughta be inneresting...

There is literally a white elephant in the room (with an orange combover), that could crush the efforts of all we have worked towards for years. The fallout over what happens this next week, and which way it goes, will be epic. I'm pulling my hair out, and biting my nails, and I'm not even the moderator.

 

[esk8mw]

Another interesting data point from the 10-Q that I didn't see in the SH letter - Tesla produced 10,450 Model X in Q3. If you want a clear idea on how X issues affect S production it's clearly on display - S production also went up over 44% from Q2 as the X issues were resolved. Here's the full history of X production:

15Q3 - 6
15Q4 - 507
16Q1 - 2659
16Q2 - 8120
16Q3 - 10450

The ramp is a clear S curve and I bet it stabilizes soon. I wonder where it tops out? In a quarter or 2 we should have a decent idea on whether we have reached steady state X demand or if the numbers keep increasing like the S did over its first few years.

 

[CaliBear1]

That article is just plain FUD. Never totally trust things you read on the internet. He takes all the stories on bimmer forums and complies a hit piece. You have issues of 1 in 100K but the internet makes it as if it was 1 in 10. His time is better spent looking at Mercedes body rust issue than looking at BMW engine as it one of the better manufacturers at making engines. I had e36 M3 and the engine was perfect @155K before I sold it. Our family had more oil leaks in Mercedes than anything else.

The amount of lame analogies should tell you something.

I'm not trusting what I read on the Internet. I'm trusting my wallet, which has repeatedly found itself significantly lighter after shelling out beaucoup bucks for repairs to BMW's vaunted engines. Are you not familiar with the constant failures of the fuel pumps in the e92 (335i)? Or the fact that the e36 M3 has a well-documented history of engine seizure which BMW has tried to ignore? And that's just the tip of the iceberg.

I don't find one failure in 100k acceptable from a company with decades of experience and R&D when it comes to ICEs. Do you?

 

[Jayjs20]

Going back to SCTY for a moment, at the end of the day, the SP500/nasdaq had a notable dip, yet SCTY went up. I'm wondering if we're at the bottom and the window to hop in is closer than I think it is.

 

[BornToFly]

Still trying to understand the price action the last week. I understand election concerns, but I think there is more at play. There are a lot of shares sold short right now, but the interest rate to borrow shares has come WAY down. Why? Are institutions like Fidelity lowering borrowing rates to increase the shorting to drive down the SP so they can buy back in with the SP in the 180s or lower? Their funds only look good with big annual returns. This could be a way to have excellent growth if they can bring the SP down, then come back in and ride it for a 20% gain when they raise the interest rates into double digits again to discourage additional short selling.... Am I crazy? Where did I put my tin foil hat?!?

 

[Green Pete]

Still trying to understand the price action the last week. I understand election concerns, but I think there is more at play. There are a lot of shares sold short right now, but the interest rate to borrow shares has come WAY down. Why? Are institutions like Fidelity lowering borrowing rates to increase the shorting to drive down the SP so they can buy back in with the SP in the 180s or lower? Their funds only look good with big annual returns. This could be a way to have excellent growth if they can bring the SP down, then come back in and ride it for a 20% gain when they raise the interest rates into double digits again to discourage additional short selling.... Am I crazy? Where did I put my tin foil hat?!?

Logical, but legal?

 

[racer26]

Yes, you are missing something. I'll try to explain some worrying stuff about SCTY:
- 1.8B Market Cap, but they have 3B debts. Yes they have Asset which they valued at $2B, but those are depreciating quickly.
- The fear is once TSLA merged with SCTY, SCTY will use TSLA cash to do their silly business. This is a distraction. Investor wants TSLA to focus on burning cash for Model 3 activity, not for other silly stuff, especially leasing more Solar Panel.
- What are they gonna do with 15,000 SCTY employees?

The asset is not valued at 2B. Its valued at nearly 6B, its valued at 2B over and above the debt obligation on it, and its not depreciating at all, because its a contracted cashflow - the value of the panels is only a small piece of it.

 

[Ameliorate]

BTW, just to provide some context to Tesla price, ER, etc.

Facebook just announced. Numbers below are projected vs. actual.
EPS: 97 cents $1.09
Revenue: 6.92B 7B
Users: 1.75B 1.79

Great results.
edit: Stock is down 0.9% after hours

These are interesting times in the market.

Wow, FB currently down 6.9% after hours.
This election must be causing a lot of anxiety in the markets.

edit - 8.4%
Many stocks showing similar downward patterns as TSLA in the last 5 trading days.
FB AMZN GOOGL auto sector etc

 

[racer26]

Sorry if this has already been posted, but sharing good news more than once can't be that bad.
2017 Motor Trend Awards

Both S and X being Car of the Year and SUV of the Year finalists? I hope we win both on the 14th. That could be a nice pop into the merger vote.

 

[3Victoria]

More grist for the TE mill: New Tesla Powerpack 2 projects to be deployed through AMS at Invesco’s buildings

 

[RobStark]

Yeurgh, Stella Artois we use that for washing the dogs here in Belgium...

I thought Belgians were Progressive when it came to animal cruelty?

 

[Jayjs20]

Wow, FB currently down 6.9% after hours.
This election must be causing a lot of anxiety in the markets.

Apparently, the earning was good but the outlook is meh.

 

[Irishjugg]

Ditto.

I feel like we should have a slack group or something

 

[Tslynk67]

I thought Belgians were Progressive when it came to animal cruelty?

Maybe they are, but I'm English, just cursed to live here