Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[larmor]

Followup from yesterday:

"Tesla Chairman and CEO Elon Musk joins CNBC from the Baron Conference for an interview at 11 a.m. ET on "Squawk Alley.""

Billionaire Ron Baron: I could make 30-50 times my money on Tesla over next 15 years

bump... just had a chance to view this...

 

[Jayjs20]

Same reason cockroaches always come back to the picnic table

Looks like the general market took a dip just now, so it could just be that.

I'm still annoyed that my order to buy SCTY yesterday during AH was only partially filled. About 1/4 of the orders yesterday at 18.25 were mine, but most still unfulfilled. Once again, I'm out a substantial amount of money because I wanted a few extra cents. Looks like I'm stuck buying around 20~ now.

 

[MP3Mike]

If "it is not actually left-handed" is a hint, I'm thinking "Inconceivable Speed"

I assume it is a hint as to how the Easter Egg is activated.

 

[Papafox]

Is there a reason why TSLA/SCTY had a dip just now because I'm looking for a way back in.

The NASDAQ took a dip and TSLA and SCTY were following. Check out the chart.

 

[EV2BFREE]

Glass Lewis Opposes Tesla (TSLA), SolarCity (SCTY) Merger - Bloomberg

^cause for the dip

 

[MitchJi]

Recent statements by Musk that SCTY should be cashflow neutral in Q4 and throughout 2017 and then generate $500 million cash over the next three years pretty much sinks the Chanos argument that TSLA with SCTY is going to bleed to death. The only things giving shorts a boost right now is a hope that HRC gets defeated (and causes a market selloff) and a hope that TSLA stock price stays low so that no equity raise is done. My guess is that HRC will win, TSLA will enjoy a post-election rally, and this may be a big jumping off point for shorts. The other possibility I see is that Q4 ER delivers good profits, Tesla raises some equity shortly thereafter, and the shorts depart in huge numbers then. The longer they wait to jump ship, the bigger the move for TSLA when it happens.

I believe that an HRC victory and the vote on the 17th could trigger a nice SP bump.

I think that TE showing a significant amount on the Q4 ER and or SCTY being even close to cash flow neutral after the merger could trigger a upward shift in the trading range. If that happens that could be the last time we see sub $200.

 

[Jayjs20]

That could be the last time we see sub $200.

I've heard that before, about 4 times now.

Post-merger will inevitably cause a small crash due to people reaping profit. From there, if no one under autopilot dies for the rest of the year and Q4 is a hit, then I think we can say goodbye to sub-200.

 

[AudubonB]

Glass Lewis's opposing is not good. I'll see if my limited resources can find anything about this.

 

[brian45011]

Spacex... oxygen was so cold it froze... basically the "super chill" thingy they were doing caused the issue with the Helium tank rupture

I wonder if they'll back off a little from their 'super-chill' fueling process.

That's the only substantive information that Quintanilla was able to elicit in a half hour (terrible preparation and/or too much deference to hand waving and buzz words)

Elon's candor is remarkable. The implications are SpaceX super-cooled the LOX to the point it froze solid and became SOX because they needed more thrust out of the second stage to get the payload to the proper orbit, thereby compensating for not using the full capacity of the first stage so it could be return to a barge for reuse. Maybe faulty reasoning from first principles of physics (and chemistry)? No worries, the only real loss was the customer's satellite. Live and learn..

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

To save everyone a google search they are similar to ISS:
Glass Lewis - Wikipedia

 

[BobSk]

Colin Langan (UBS) on CNBC slamming tesla.

There are people who genuinely believe Tesla will fail. There are people who is saying things to help their short position. I watched Colin Langan's past interviews. I think he is a short disguised as an analyst. He usually comes to an interview at critical times. He either wants to see Tesla break below support levels, or prevent Tesla from breakout. That's my impression.

A real analyst would acknowledge both the positive and negative developments.

 

[brian45011]

Agreed, but I don't think any slick type could run these companies at this stage, so unslick it is. Maybe when people understand where they're going, people won't have to be engineering as much any more, and someone who combines the attributes of staying the course with good communication can be point man. But for now, it's about disrupting the course, and you need a thinker, not a talker. Actually, I think one of Elon's attributes that got him so far is his ability to communicate well despite that he's an engineering minded person. It's his ability to speak well that is odd, not his inability. Both are there. Necessary as business man and CEO, but not quite as polished as people who have been in the mainstream for more of their life, and most CEO's have been.

They were baiting him with juicy questions we all have. Like "Truck!?". Let's consider that they are working on truck. Well, the CEO needs to know how to introduce it in the marketplace and sell it integrated into fleets. That's what Elon did. He didn't go out and say Hey, Truck for $X,YZW.00 right now. That's because that's not the stage they are at. He's engineering the marketplace, and had the conversation that had to be had at that moment. Ron Baron the long term investment person was looking past that, to truck for $X * number of units shipped, how it fits in the global energy economy, the dollars to make, etc.. Elon knows this, but is focused on the steps to actually make that happen, and wants to talk about that. And Elon wants to show he's doing it. It's a combination of the awkwardness of an Engineer trying to show his work is right and someone who is a decent communicator. Plus, Elon has stated before, he believes if you make a good and complete product, people will want it. He has faith that if he finds the right price point and then makes the right equipment at that price point (in this case a slight premium product line that looks great and works well), then the market will fall in place to buy it. That way you don't have to spend money on advertising, and it will still sell very well. Like in his Q3 conference call when he said his stores are anti-selling the Model 3.

Listen to JB's speeches/presentations/explanations.

 

[JRP3]

Did you watch the video?

Yes, it showed a vehicle driving into the back of another vehicle because the driver wasn't paying attention. Happens all the time. Happened to me as a teen, no autopilot involved, just a pretty girl walking on the side of the road. I blamed her.

 

[Green Pete]

What happens to all the solar city shorts after the merger? They become Tesla shorts right? After the merger isn't the short volume on Tesla going to be just massive?

 

[dha]

...and the Nasdaq just went red. This final hour of trading will be very telling. Will the market close flat / green, or will it continue to sell off to further de-risk heading into the final weekend before the election?

I'm keeping my eye on the S&P's 200 day moving average. We're currently sitting right above it.

 

[RobStark]

Wow! 10GW from Buffalo!

I wish we had a "WTF!" rating right now.

 

[brian45011]

Electric car: No one ever did it successfully, except Tesla now profitable with that.
Storage battery: Tesla jumped on this bandwagon when it became profitable more than anyone else, and is now going to be a leader in that area.

Solar collection: Obviously a part of the Tesla story.

Automation of cars: Tesla jumped on that bandwagon, and expect similar results to the first two.
Trucks: Tesla is not the first to electric trucks, but when they do it, expect similar results to the first two.

For instance: automated trucks. Think if you are a county government who maintains roads (100% of counties in USA). Over half your wear and tear, road maintenance cost, road cost, goes to your chosen garbage monopoly. Their trucks rumble through at full tonnage stop and go. Hugely polluting, hugely damaging. 40 tons. Dirty fuels. Tesla Truck: can have a smaller car-weight unit at only 2 tons on each block, filling up its carrying capacity, then drive back to the main truck on the truck route to deliver the garbage. Not only is this less expensive total cost of ownership to have electric non-polluting non-manned garbage trucks, but it also saves on half the cost of road maintenance. Whomever gets into the automated electric garbage truck business stands to gain a huge amount. We'll see if they do this or just get some of the business as a platform provider and a value-added company does the rest.

Ever hear of Wrightspeed?

 

[Jayjs20]

...and the Nasdaq just went red. This final hour of trading will be very telling. Will the market close flat / green, or will it continue to sell off to further de-risk heading into the final weekend before the election?

I'm keeping my eye on the S&P's 200 day moving average. We're currently sitting right above it.

I think people are just worried about any election news during the weekend. There have been some articles suggesting rumors that HRC is highly likely to be indicted soon. There's also that rumor that a credible source believes there could be an attack in the US on Monday. Yes, rumors are just rumors, but the market takes them very seriously.

 

[3Victoria]

Fall rumours re Clinton Foundation
Fox News anchor: It was 'mistake' to report possible Clinton Foundation indictment

 

[BobSk]

What happens to all the solar city shorts after the merger? They become Tesla shorts right? After the merger isn't the short volume on Tesla going to be just massive?

Yes if they keep shorting SCTY, they will end up holding short shares of TSLA. Also there are people who hold SCTY Puts, they will end up with TSLA Puts.

After merger, the total number of shorts maybe up (if nobody cover), the total float also go up. The short percentage of total float probably will not change too much.